Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 9, 2013

Race 1

Vulnerable Favorites:

MORE THAN KRAZY (#8) has no obvious drawbacks, and she can certainly win this, but taking a short price on a horse with no main-track form besides a sprint where she earned a 28 Beyer, for a barn with one win in 31 starts on the year, sure seems silly.-Kenny Peck

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Spot Plays:

FLEET BEAT Trainer-jock already have teamed for win at meet, & this horse fits the spot much better than his odds are likely to suggest. Already proven over KEE surface & a plus they got a work into him since shipping from PID.-Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Live Longshot:

COV (#4, 8-1) was well beaten as the favorite in his debut but he endured a tough trip, and he's very likely to improve if he gets to run on the turf here, which is what he tried to do in his first start; Lasix adds to the appeal. -Kenny Peck

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Graded Stakes Analsis:

Any 2-year-old turf race will be tough to plot, but Wednesday's JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland is nearly impossible.

There certainly seems to be enough pace to set up a closer in the 1 1/16 mile Jessamine. While CANDY KITTY (#8) won't be far off the leaders, and is more of a stalker, she might be in an ideal spot behind the speeds. The main concern is the fact that in her lone score to date she was on the front end through extremely slow splits but she showed a bit of a rating gear in her turf debut, and she did close in a sprint race on the main track in her career bow.

ZIP ON (#4) is one of the likely speeds but she may be able to outrun them all for the lead. Her ability to go this far is of course in question, as her latest, at six furlongs, was her longest race yet. But she is also proven on the turf, and that solid 79 Beyer gives her credibility, especially if she's anywhere near her 15-1 Morning Line odds.

ZINZAY (#6) was nearly 20-1 in her debut but she ran a big race to win by a neck, benefiting from a perfect trip to make the last run. A horse coming off this type of trip in a maiden race, and then moving into a stake, would normally be a horse to play against, but the expected race flow seems to favor her, as she may once again be in a prime stalking spot.

KITTEN KABOODLE (#3) is still a maiden but she ran 2nd in each of her two starts thus far, including her latest, against CANDY KITTY, and she ran a big race considering how slow the fractions were. She has room to improve off that running line given some pace help.

RICHIES PARTY GIRL (#9) is 4th choice on the line at 9-2 but she may be one to play against if she's any lower at all. She comes off an allowance win, her second in three starts on the green,but she was loose on the lead there and was all out to stave off RUNAWAY GIANT (#10). She goes a sixteenth of a mile farther here and figures to face more pace pressure this time around, which could mean she regresses. RUNAWAY GIANT, meanwhile,could be a filly who really moves up if the pace is very quick, and/or contested.-Kenny Peck

Spot Plays:

KITTEN KABOODLE Maiden in stakes but who cares? Know previous barn held her in high regard, & both Spa losses came with trouble. 9/15 BEL drill speaks positively to breakthrough chance here.-Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Spot Plays:

Cool C Note (#1, 7-2) invades from the Pennsylvania circuit where he has been running well; proven on synthetic, including at Keenelenad. – Byron King

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

Closer Looks >>