Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 6, 2013

Race 1

Vulnerable Favorite

SALUTE THE L T J G and ICHIBAN WARRIOR (entry, 2-1)

Stable couplings usually are undervalued on the Tote because fans using a “two is better than one” mentality just usually doesn’t apply. Both halves of this Ken Ramsey entry appears vulnerable, especially with the presence of a few others in this Sunday opener (i.e., More Than Classic). Besides, as great as Ramsey was here in the spring, that’s just how awful his horses performed on the Friday opener. Take a stand against. – Marty McGee

Spot Play

RY'S THE MAN (#3, 8-1) was totally against AP Poly bias while running into one of sharpest 2yo MSW winners of that meet. Big jock change for logical drop to $50K MCL. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Spot Play

RELIGIOUS ED (#6, 6-1) eight time track winner New Believer may take a lot of money, but this Keeneland main track lover has a big shot. –Chuck Kuehhas

Race 3

Spot Play

The notion HOMESICK ANGEL (#4, 8-1) will be 8-1 with works & Napravnik is ludicrous, but I’d bite at something like 9-2. A $260K auction buy by Divine Park? Must be a stunning individual. Barn doesn’t win with that many firsters, but this one looks carefully prepped. - Marcus Hersh

Spot Play

BRAD'S RUBY (#6, 8-1) is likely to improve second time out for a barn that is typically potent with longshots at Keeneland; quick works. – Byron King

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Race 5

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Bourbon Stakes

MEDAL COUNT

The money here figures to gravitate to Todd Pletcher’s talented Bashart, a smart winner of his last two starts, both on turf at SAR, including a victory in the Grade 2 With Anticipation. His speed figures to have the son of top turf sire War Front prominent from the start. Oh, and both those wins came at this same distance.

Yet good as Bashart looks, there is other speed so if he has designs on a theft that could be a dicey proposition. And one thing you won’t like is the likely short price.

That shouldn’t be an issue with Medal Count from the Dale Romans barn. Dynaformer isn’t really one to get precocious youngsters (though remember his son Barbaro was dynamite as a 2-year-old). This colt, who cost $360,000 at auction, made his debut routing on dirt at ELP. Boxed in while sitting behind the pace, he didn’t appear to be going anywhere. And then, wham! He found a seam, surged to the lead in midstretch and powered away, winning in a romp by 6 1/4 lengths.

Yes, the Beyer didn’t come back all the strong (50) but this more a case of visual appeal as opposed to raw numbers. And it was just his debut so he can certainly leap forward on the Beyer scale.

But best of all, THIS is the surface he figures to want. Over the years Dynaformer has been one of the game’s elite turf sires so the footing should be right up this guy’s alley. Oh, and two real strong recent works (bullet :59.80B at CD Sept. 22, sharp 1:00.60B here Sept. 28) say he’s doing well.

Another horse of interest is Boji Moon. Now you could have been excused for viewing him suspiciously when he showed up in the KD Turf Sept. 4 with a couple laughers over Iowa-breds on dirt at PRM in his pocket. Well, he showed he’s not just some Iowa pipedream or dirt horse. Off those two monster wins (by 11 3/4 lengths, 12 1/2 lengths) he shipped, faced open foes and turf for the first time and flourished, easily winning at KD. In fact, his Beyer actually went up. He’s obviously the real deal.

School on a Hill is an interesting potential exotics player as the colt won his debut smartly on turf at AP at this trip. That was enough to earn him a shot at the Grade 2 Summer at WO Sept. 14; he was even favored. Alas, that didn’t go well but he’s worked well since and the fact Catalano opted to wheel him back in a tough spot like this says he hasn’t given up on this guy, so you probably shouldn’t either.- Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Spinster Stakes

EMOLLIENT

If you have any questions about how this year’s crop of 3-year-old fillies ranks against elders, just take a look at a couple weeks ago. Princess of Sylmar looked smashing beating – fairly easily, mind you – two-time champion elder Royal Delta. Later that day Beholder, likely the game’s second best 3-year-old filly, led top elders out west on a merry chase. Before those events it might have been more difficult to embrace Emollient as she faces elders for the first time here, but the exploits of her peers and her return to this track make it easier to fall into her corner.

She does come off a dullish turf try (eighth in the Grade 1 Garden City), which came after she won the Grade 1 American Oaks July 13. However, she posted a nice work Sept. 29 to indicate there are no ill effects from that poor outing and Smith comes in to ride her.

But the best thing going for her may be the footing. The only other time she stepped on synthetic ground it came here in the Grade 1 Ashland April 6, and well, she was like a pig in slop. She just bounced over the surface, going right out to a clear lead and bounding away to win in a romp. Sure, these gals figure tougher but obviously she relished the footing. And while she led all the way that day note she’s by no means a need-the-lead type – when she broke her maiden at BEL last September, when she won in GP slop in February and when she won the aforementioned American Oaks she showed tactical speed, yes, but actually came from just off the pace. That tractability can serve her well here as there is some other speed signed up.

From an exotics standpoint Byrama is another who just loves the footing. She’s run so well on it that they even tried her against the West’s top males in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. This is surely a better situation and she big over this track in the spring when second in the Grade 1 Madison. She doesn’t have to come from miles out of it, either.

Summer Applause is a classy filly who has handled synthetic and a sharp stakes win at MTH Aug. 25 says she comes here doing well. A potential price play for the exotics comes in the form of Hard Not to Like. The bulk of her work has come on turf, on which she’s run well, but note a good second over this track in the 2012 Ashland. - Michael Hammersly

Spot Play

HARD NOT TO LIKE (#10, 6-1) ran huge in lone start over the track in spring ’12; will play to win and exacta box with #5 EMOLLIENT. –Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>