Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 5, 2013

Race 1

Race 2

Spot Play

PREPARED (#5, 4-1) was definitely not bred for something as short as the 5.5 furlongs of career debut, & broke slow in one of the faster 2yo MSWs of Arlington meet. What she is bred for is this 2-turn trip. On home track. Ready to come forward.- Marcus Hersh

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Race 3

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Race 4

Spot Play

Two best races of QUEEN's AWARD's (#2, 5-1) career came over similar sprint trip at the 2012 Keeneland fall meet. She should get a great setup as inside-drawn closer in speed-packed heat. Just needs a way through.- Marcus Hersh

QUEEN’S AWARD (#2, 5-1): Can’t shake the memories of that tremendous victory (96 BSF) this mare posted here last fall in 2x alw. company over the Poly; since then, the underrated Brazilian, Caramori, has made her run against some of the best in a variety of stakes-level spots. Now drops in for the 3x condition while returning to a fave surface; likely to get a nice stalking trip under HOF jock; gotta love her chances. – Marty McGee

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Race 5

Spot Play

STORMOFTHECENTURY (#6, 4-1) has quickly developed into a top-class turfers, coming off a legitimate score against some big-time grass sprinters in the Turf Monster at Parx; has the speed to lead as well as the ability to rate, a key component for most horses who are successful in this area. -Kenny Peck

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Race 6

TCA Stakes Analysis

GROUPIE DOLL has the look of an odds-on favorite in the Grade 2, $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America at Keeneland on Saturday. The six-furlong race for fillies and mares is to be her steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, a race she won by more than four lengths last year en route to being voted champion female sprinter. Her path there ran through the 2012 TCA, which she dominated one start after winning the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters. GROUPIE DOLL repeated in the Masters last month in an identical lead-in to the TCA, but there is a difference to her campaign this year. She did not start her season until Aug. 10, in the Grade 3 Gardenia, a one-mile race at Ellis Park in which she encountered trouble and finished third at 1-5. The start at two turns no doubt was an important stamina building block for this season, and it may have also served the purpose of enhancing her rateability. GROUPIE DOLL will be shortening up a tad in distance from six and a half furlongs Saturday, but suspect she could be closer to the pace than she was in the Masters as she was cutting back from a mile for that race. The concerns are some regression off a strong race in her second start back, and the chance a rival like GYPSY ROBIN gets loose on the front end. Still, GROUPIE DOLL is the undisputed class of the field and strictly the one to beat.

GYPSY ROBIN is dangerous. She has a chance to steal away depending on how things fall at the break. She also has reason to move forward in her second start since July, as well as over a track on which she is 3-for-3. And while GYPSY ROBIN won a restricted stakes in her most recent start, she is a two-time Grade 2 winner, with one of those victories coming last fall at Keeneland. In addition, GYPSY ROBIN is the second-leading earner in this field behind GROUPIE DOLL. She indicated her sharpness the other morning, when she worked a half-mile in a bullet 46.80 seconds at Betfair Hollywood Park. Based on that drill and the speed she has shown in her races, the Southern California shipper appears to be the one to catch. A candidate to complete the exacta led by GROUPIE DOLL.

JUDY THE BEAUTY is at home on Keeneland’s main track, where she is 2-for-2 and where she breezed five furlongs in a bullet 58.80 seconds in her final prep for the TCA. She certainly has the speed to hold her position from the rail, but a concern is that she has not gotten the break in her two most recent starts. In addition, the field’s two quickest members are situated to her immediate outside. It’s a bit of trick, perhaps, but she has run well from the fence in the past, is on a surface over which she has thrived, and gets the services of a top rider in Velazquez. JUDY THE BEAUTY also exits the Masters, and finished a credible third to GROUPIE DOLL. As for class, she is a stakes winner who has placed in three Grade 1 races, her most recent showing a second-place finish in the Princess Rooney at Calder. JUDY THE BEAUTY was the favorite in that race, and would not be a surprise here, perhaps getting a stalking trip behind a few of these. She’s worth a win-saver but otherwise seems best used underneath GROUPIE DOLL.

PURE HOT, the $4,000 claim turned runner-up to GROUPIE DOLL in the Masters, moves closer to her comfort zone on the cutback from six and a half furlongs to six panels. She also remains racing over a synthetic track, and her stock spiked when she moved to such a surface earlier this year at Presque Isle. PURE HOT needs to duplicate her Masters effort to erase the lingering class questions surrounding runner who earlier this year was the cause of a claiming war that began at the $4,000 level and ended at the $10,000 level. From a pace standpoint, PURELY HOT has appeal as one who could get an ideal tracking trip behind GYPSY ROBIN. But there’s also the concern she could find herself pressed by GYPSY ROBIN, who breaks to her immediate outside.

LIVI MAKENZIE became a stakes winner in the $100,000 Saylorville at Prairie Meadows in June. She has run once since, in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga, a July 29 race in which she finished sixth to the win-streaking Dance to Bristol. After their meeting, Dance to Bristol accounted for the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga, with a Beyer Speed Figure of 94. As for LIVI MAKENZIE, she has been freshened, and note she has won off the bench in the past, back in January at Oaklawn. One of her assets is her natural speed and if she runs fresh she could press a pair of quick runners who will break to her inside, GYPSY ROBIN and PURELY HOT. And if LIVI MAKENZIE forces some serious fractions, it would seem just sweeten the pot for GROUPIE DOLL, whose rider, Rajiv Maragh, could have an ideal view of the proceedings from the widest post.

TANGLEWOOD TALE will be possibly the longest shot in the TCA despite the fact that she has won her last three starts. She is a former claimer moving back into stakes competition for the first time in a while, and she will be making her first-ever start on a synthetic surface. The fact that her confidence is soaring is a plus, while her running style is another benefit as she is one who can stalk and pounce. Still, TANGLEWOOD TALE’s lack of experience over a synthetic track and the class hike she takes makes others more appealing.

The best approach with the TCA would seem to key GROUPIE DOLL, and underneath use GYPSY ROBIN, JUDY THE BEAUTY and perhaps PURELY HOT.- Mary Rampellini

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Race 7

First Lady Stakes Analysis

There are 8 in the Grade 1 First Lady, and the only one of them I know don’t like is the 9-5 favorite, DAYATTHESPA. Dayatthespa has been a cut below the best in here since she was gifted an easy lead last fall in the QEII, and there will be no such pace edge in a field with plenty of front-running types. Yes, Keeneland appears to be Dayatthespa’s favorite course, but I’m guessing it won’t matter.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any other horse in the race win, and that includes outsider WINDING WAY, who seems unlikely to me to make it up to her 30-1 morning-line odds. Winding Way is edging back to some exciting form from last summer, has turf in her pedigree, and was shipped cross-country by a capable outfit despite having two races in her backyard she might have contested this weekend.
But given the fact she’s a stretchout sprinter with some pace, Winding Way figures to end up on or near the pace with DAISY DEVINE and Dayatthespa. Daisy Devine, unraced since June, might be the most attractive of the pace players, as she likes the KEE course at least as much as Dayatthespa, and nearly won this race last fall coming back from an even longer layoff.
HUNGRY ISLAND and MIZ IDA figure to get decent setups, both have run well on the course, and either could contend. Miz Ida chased speed that never came back, Laughing, over a biased Saratoga course last out, and beat Daisy Devine in the spring. I’d slightly favor her, and her longer odds, over Hungry Island, who I think has hit a plateau, and might have shown her best when second last out in the Noble Damsel.
On to the Euros, but I know this: Both are 3-year-olds, and the Grade 1 QE II is next weekend. It’s possible in the case of both SAY and AMAZONAS that this week’s race is only a setup for next weekend’s. AMAZONAS has raced only once at 3, but last August came within a half-length of Sky Lantern, who is one of the best fillies in Europe. Say has a close finish behind Dank, whom we saw dominate the Beverly D. this summer.
And finally, the horse I’d bet to win if you kept me to a single selection – BETTER LUCKY. What we’ve seen three times in a row is improvement from Better Lucky in the second start of her form cycle. Last fall, she went evenly in the QE II and six weeks later beat excellent Tiz Flirtatious in the G1 Matriarch. In April, she was fourth in the Jenny Wiley, her 2013 debut, but used that as a springboard to a close second in the G1 Just A Game. Better Lucky had a quiet summer, and, with this richer G1 sitting three weeks away, it should have come as no surprise that she ran a notch or two below her best as the odds-on favorite in the Noble Damsel. Her odds are going up, and Better Lucky is going forward – she’s worth a long look in a very, very tough race. - Marcus Hersh

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Race 8

Breeders' Futurity Analysis

Has there been any North American trainer hotter than Wayne Catalano in recent weeks? Um, no, and that’s why Solitary Ranger (#6), one of his starters in this ridiculously wide-open renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity, deserves as much consideration as any of them. Fresh off the bench, the colt was good enough to win the Arlington-Washington Futurity with style, and despite all the speed in this 14-horse field, there’s reason to believe he’s been trained so that he’ll be able to take some rating and resist what figures to be a swift pace. He also stands to benefit from that last race and could make the needed Beyer leap to seriously contend.

Of course, there are all kinds of other viable options in a race where the favorite might be as high as 5-1, assuming 14 start; hitting any of the tricks should be lucrative indeed. The others with merit, some of them with fat morning lines, include Kendall’s Boy (#2), who chased the much-heralded Havana; the “other” Catalano, School On a Hill (#3), who gets first Lasix as a beaten last-out stakes fave; Conquest Titan (#9), from the ever-dangerous Casse stable of 2-year-olds; We Miss Artie (#12), a turf/synth-bred for Ramsey and Pletcher; and Tiznowforamerica (#14), who was a Saratoga “good thing” and has the pedigree to not only keep getting better but also to move up on the Poly.

The bet: 6 in key spots in tri’s and supers with 2, 3, 9, 12, 14.- Marty McGee

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Race 9

Shadwell Turf Mile Analysis

I just went down this road three weeks ago with the Woodbine Mile, in which I thought Trade Storm might give WISE DAN a race – and was proven utterly wrong. Wise Dan set a course record for one mile while appearing to fall far, far short of maximum exertion. I love Wise Dan. Wise Dan is one of the best horses in recent years. Yet I come to tell you – blasphemy again -- that Wise Dan does not absolutely have to win the Shadwell Turf Mile.

That thought has nothing to do with a relatively quick turnaround after Woodbine: Like I said, he won tat Woodbine in a gallop, and this is a powerful, mature horse that clearly takes his racing well. But I think that in WINNING PRIZE & to a lesser extent SILVER MAX, Wise Dan is facing (apologies to Za Approval) his best competition this year, and he must do so from a tricky post position.

Wise Dan breaks from post 10, and horses drawn 8 and wider have won just 7-149 one-mile grass races on the Keeneland course since 2010. His start will be of great importance: Breaking a half-step slow, breaking outward a little, any minor early misstep means Wise Dan and John Velazquez might be dictated to, rather than doing the dictating.

The problem, if you were trying to beat Wise Dan, is that the two best-looking alternatives, Winning Prize and Silver Max, could cancel each other out. Silver Max does by far his best work on the lead, and Winning Prize cut out quick splits when impressively winning his North American debut over subsequent G3 turf-sprint stakes winner Chips All In on Aug. 22 at Del Mar. Winning Prize, an Argentine import, could be the real thing, and he might be patient enough to rate just behind Silver Max, saving ground while Wise Dan loses it.

Wise Dan’s stable-mate, Turallure, has no chance, in my opinion, nor do Handsome Mike and Coalport, but I could see fooling around – at least ‘under’ in exotics’ – with all the others. SKYRING is much better than his last, and horses running off the Calumet training track for trainer Jose Fernandez were live at Arlington. HOGY has been getting better and better, and at age 4 I wouldn’t pretend to know where his ceiling is. SUMMER FRONT might be a cut below, but he is 6-5-0-1 at one mile, and the 3rd came with trouble against multiple G1 winner Big Blue Kitten. WILLCOX INN turns back to what might be his best distance and was second in this race last year.

Am I recommending a big swing against the reigning Horse of the Year? I am not. Nor will I be anything but pleased if Wise Dan wins. But even a super-horse will eventually run into circumstances he can’t overcome, and the Shadwell might not be the walk in the park most anticipate. - Marcus Hersh

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Race 10

Spot Play

Exacta and tri part-wheels, 9/11 with 9/10/11 After all the Wise Dan dust clears, we’ll either be looking to “get out” or “pile on” .. and the outside part of the starting gate is where we’ll head, using the main contenders Ballistic Sue (#9, 8-5) and Guava Girl (#11, 5-1) in some verticals while throwing in a legit PID sleeper, Grilledham’ncheese (#10, 15-1). – Marty McGee

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