Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 4, 2013
Race 1 |
Vulnerable FavoriteJOJO'S GAL (#6, 5-2): A bettor would go broke consistently betting against Wesley Ward-trained juveniles at Keeneland over the last few years but this may be an instance where it's worth to take a shot against him. This filly was up the track in both of her two starts, and while her latest, against males going long, is entirely forgivable, she had no excuse in her bow when sprinting against fillies. May be telling that she didn't take anywhere near the money a well-meant runner from this barn usually takes in that one. -Kenny Peck Spot PlayDON’T TELL ME NO That’s right: a 2-headed spot play. I like this race because the favorite has modest speed & is drawn in 12, & the 2nd choice is drawn 11 & is moving up after ho-hum AP showing in a lesser spot. Like work pattern, low-budget history, and 6.5fs pedigree of both these 1sters & will be surprised if one doesn’t fire.- Marcus Hersh Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
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Race 3 |
Spot PlaySheikinator 1st, don’t think he’ll be 12-1 -- at that price you could like him; at 9-2, not nearly as much – with a live work pattern in a meh-looking race. By Curlin out of Dixieland Band mare – why not long 1st out? The trainer, who has a + ROI with large sample of Poly runners, has won with such types in past. - Marcus Hersh Closer Looks >> |
Race 4 |
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayCENTRAL BANKER (#6, 7-2) The kick this 3yo has shown on turf portends a good possibility of something similar today in his first try on Poly, especially as he drops out of three straight stakes attempts. There’s sufficient speed in here to set things up for a closer, and we’re thinking it’ll be him and not one of the other faves, Xbalanque, who’ll be punching home best. – Marty McGee Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 |
Spot PlayI’LL CALL (#4, 5-2) The memory remains vivid of this guy strolling home a winner at first asking last spring over this same grass course, and he’s done little in the interim to show he’s not capable of going through this 1x condition sooner than later. Motion usually sends some of his more capable steeds this way from northern Maryland, and you have to think this is one of his prime candidates to pull through. – Marty McGee
Spot PlayPlaying the speeds in this turf route, which seems to have come up a little short on pace. BARZINI (#12, 12-1) is a key, not only because of his early foot but also because he should be a nice price. Also including ONE GOLDEN ROAD (#1, 8-1), who draws the hedge, and likely favorite I'LL CALL (#4, 5-2), who was hurt by a wide post last time. -Kenny Peck
Closer Looks >> |
Race 8 |
Spot PlayGO BLUE OR GO HOME (#8, 8-1) disappointed in his latest when fourth on turf but now gets back to synthetic; rival Hogy a likely scratch. – Byron King Spot PlayRELOAD Not going to be 10-1. He’s got a standout running line from his lone all-weather try – which happened to come at this distance on this Polytrack. Easy to draw a line through two pre-layoff duds. Flashy Fair Hill drills. Looks like 4yo still could develop. Also will throw in a helping of synth specialist GO BLUE OR GO HOME. - Marcus Hersh Closer Looks >> |
Race 9 |
Alcibades Stakes AnalysisHow often has there been a 2-year-old filly who not only won her career debut in a Grade 2 stakes versus boys, but wheels back with the field-high Beyer when trying a Grade 1 in her second start? Can’t think of a prior example. That said, MY CONQUESTADORY (#7, 3-1) has to be a strong consideration with those credentials; her trainer, Mark Casse, said she has trained exceptionally well along on synthetics in Ocala and Canada and that he is confident she will handle the Keeneland Poly. This is a race full of promising fillies, however, and she can’t necessarily be an “all-in” propostion. Perhaps better to key her not only 1st, but also 2nd and maybe even 3rd in your verticals. The other fillies who should be used are ROSALIND (#12, 6-1), who closed stoutly against a good group in the Pocahontas and should be a nice price for a 3-time Alcibiades-winning trainer (McPeek), and any or all of the Chicago fillies exiting a tough renewal of the Lassie four weeks ago, those being SWEETSOUTHERNDAME (#3, 2-1), MARIA MARIA (#4, 10-1), BATTLEFIELD ANGEL (#6, 20-1), and SHE'S OFFLEE GOOD (#10, 8-1), some of them at bombs-away numbers. The bet: 7 in key spots in tri’s and supers with 3, 4, 6, 10, 12. Closer Looks >> |
Race 10 |
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