Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 26, 2013

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

SPOT PLAY

GROUND TRANSPORT (8-1) Let’s not forget what a huge key race the La. Derby turned out to be, & this horse finished a close 5th in it despite breaking from post 13. Major excuses from last two starts & works suggests he’s on go. Scratched from off-turfer last weekend. Thinking double-digit odds might be offered. -Marcus Hersh

EXOTHERMIC (#4, 4-1) not quite sure he had to be quite so far back last time, but did make nice four furlong run last time; may come down to this one for trainer to keep Keeneland streak alive. -Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Fayette Stakes Analysis

It’s quite fitting that a meet filled with delightfully inscrutable stakes races with sizable and wide-open fields would conclude with a race such as the Fayette, which has Willcox Inn (#7, 5-2) and Lea (#8, 3-1) as lukewarm (and vulnerable) morning-line favorites.

Both of those program choices have their merits, for sure, and it’d be foolhardy to leave either off your vertical plays, assuming both will put forth his usual effort. Still, there could be value to be had here, especially when one looks close at Villandry (#1, 8-1), who will be our key play here.

Charlie LoPresti of Wise Dan renown certainly knows a good horse when he sees one, and that’s why he did not hesitate to enter this 4-year-old in this spot. With 3 wins from 5 starts since coming under the LoPresti shedrow, this guy is ready for stakes competition and stands to run a huge one with that much-needed last race under his belt. He’ll stretch out when favorably drawn to the rail with the ever-underrated Castanon aboard; quite possibly a lifetime-best is forthcoming here.

The bet: Key #1 on top and in the second spot in tri’s and supers with the two favorites (#7 and #8) while also salting in a few longer-priced contenders such as Nikki’s Sandcastle (#4) and the Poly-loving Winning Cause (#9) in this fashion: 1 with 7/8 with 4/7/8/9, and other variations thereof. - Marty McGee

SPOT PLAYS

Lea (#8, 3-1) did not have the speed to keep up with Grade 1 sprinters in the seven-furlong Forego, but here in the Fayette, he ought to get a great trip, likely pressing the pace on the outside; fits the profile of a horse that should like the Poly. – Byron King

VULNERABLE FAVORITE

Willcox Inn (#7, 5-2) looks like the favorite by default in the Fayette because of having run well on the Poly, in contrast to some of his chief foes, whom are unraced on it; but he was all out to beat a former claimer in the Washington Park Handicap two back and last time only just got up for third in a race over this track. – Byron King

LIVE LONGSHOT

YOU KNOW I KNOW (#2, 10-1) ships from west coast for top barn; not thrilled SoCal jock didn’t come along for the ride, but odds allay concern. -Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

Closer Looks >>