Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 19, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

Spot Play

TIZ WINDY (#5, 10-1) broke slowly from rail & lack of positional speed cost all chance at win in debut, but Nafzger barn never about winning at 1st asking, & filly ran on late for 5th of 12. 3 works since including classic pre-race Nafzger 5fs drill. Should improve with distance, experience.- Marcus Hersh

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Race 8

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Race 9

Raven Run Stakes Analysis

This deep, contentious field is tough enough without even considering the Also Eligibles but if FULLY LIVING (#15) gets in -- not to mention MADAME CACTUS (#16) -- it gets that much tougher to figure.

FULLY LIVING was a head short of catching longshot speed Indian Spell in the Miss Woodford at Monmouth Park last time but that was a solid effort, as she was against bias and race flow there. She'll be wide if she goes but she has the tactical speed to get into contention and she should be able to work out a trip despite the outside draw.

JEWEL OF A CAT (#7) might be the one to beat from the body of the race. She's raced on the turf in four of her last six starts but she's also proven on the main track. This will be her first try on a synthetic strip but if she takes to the surface she could be a big threat, as her barn does very well with horses working well, and she certainly qualifies in that regard.

LIGHTHOUSE BAY (#5) comes out of consecutive Grade 1 tries at Saratoga, and that of course makes her a threat by default. She earned decent figures in those races and she's another with enough tactical speed to work out a trip regardless of pace scenario.

MADAME CACTUS (#16), the other AE in here, has to be considered if she goes.This will be her 2nd start off the layoff and the barn excels with that angle. She's also yet to run a poor race when sprinting.

MY OPTION (#10) is an interesting turnback, and the fact that she returns to the main track also helps. Those last couple of works since the last race indicates she retains her form, and she may be overlooked a bit in the wagering.

SILSITA (#4) and CIAO BELLA LUNA (#9) might be one to play against if they're as low as their respective Morning Line prices of 7/2 and 4/1. The former's only Beyer that fits with these was earned in a two-turn route, when she benefited from a forward trip pushing mild splits, while the latter is also lacking in terms of speed figures, when compared with the top contenders.

PLENTY O'TOOLE (#1) might need longer -- and softer. THETALOVEANDMINE (#6) also seems overmatched. TURN BY TURN (#3) is undefeated in two starts but she gets a much sterner test today. SITTIN AT THE BAR (#2) has won four straight, and she's back at one turn, which she seems to prefer, but she's unproven in open company, with much of her success coming against Louisiana breds.

ELSUIVE FATE (#8) was game in defeat last time but she lacks Beyer power. This does not appear to be IRISH LUTE'S (#11) best distance. PRIMED FOR PASSION (#12) could be tough if she runs to that figure two back, but that was at two turns, against much weaker. FINDING MORE (#13) was behind a few of these last time, and though that wasn't an easy trip it's not likely to get easier today. EDEN PRAIRIE (#14) benefited from a perfect trip last time and still didn't earn a figure that will put her in the mix here.

THE PLAY: I'll key FULLY LIVING (#15) if she's in, over and under 5, 7, 10 and 16. Otherwise, JEWEL OF A CAT (#7) becomes the key, using the same fillies with her. - Kenny Peck

Vulnerable Favorite

SILSITA (#4, 7-2) will be overbet in a deep Raven Run, coming from New York and having Todd Pletcher and Mike Smith in her corner; is 1 for 1 on the Poly, but others in here, such as My Option, look just as skilled. – Byron King

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Race 10

Live Longshot

FORTY FOUR NORTH (#5, 10-1) returns to the turf for first time since career debut last winter at GP going two turns; think if he improves a couple lengths off that effort, he’ll be right there at likely double digit odds.- Chuck Kuehhas

Spot Play

MT TRONADOR (#11, 6-1) improved second out with a close fourth at Keeneland, but low-profile connections will keep the price appetizing on this one; should continue to move forward as he gains experience. – Byron King

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