Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 18, 2013
Race 1 |
Spot PlayJ P's FLASHY HONEY (#8, 9-2) – ran her fastest race two back at Ellis Park on the grass, perhaps hinting she will take to the Poly; based at Keeneland and likely to improve second time off a layoff and with a class drop from maiden 30K to maiden 15K – Byron King
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Race 2 |
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Race 5 |
Spot PlayMENDOTA (#7, 15-1) took action in AP debut won by talented Kool Kowboy (ran into Pablo del Monte last week) but never got untracked after sluggish break from rail. Barn not especially strong w/ 1sters & rather than run back at HAW, where he’s had 2 more solid works, going for big $ here. Favorite doesn’t have to Poly.- Marcus Hersh
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Race 8 |
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Race 9 |
Valley View Stakes Analysis
Man – good luck with this one . It’s a full field of 12 3yo turf fillies and the performance range from top to bottom – favored SUMMER OF FUN representing the top, WO N1X allowance winner SHE’S POPULAR the bottom – is narrow. Let’s start with Summer of Fun. She was a close second racing over the KEE turf last fall & with a somewhat tricky sand-based course like this, it’s good to see a track record, even minimal. Summer of Fun was well backed in the G1 Garden City but faded to fifth after racing within striking position much of the trip. I think she didn’t quite stay the nine furlongs and was facing horses a little better than she. So, she had the big Saratoga comeback win, closing well into a slow pace, and probably ran right back to that in the Garden City: I’d say her improvement cycle for right now is about complete. She might repeat her last two performances, and that might be good enough to win this, but I don’t see her improving much and her short price suggests fooling around elsewhere. On paper, there’s little true pace in the race. STORMIN ELLE, 15-1 on the morning line and likely to rise higher than that, looks like she’ll make the front, particularly with send-send-send E.T. Baird named. Baird is a master at front-end trips, and course conditions might be in Stormin Elle’s favor. KEE was off turf Thursday & dense fog was forecast: I’d guess the turf will be yielding, “good” at most. Stormin Elle definitely handles wet turf. Her grass-debut win came on a course called “good” but that was in reality very soft (just take a look at the fractions and final time.) The class rise is huge, and Stormin Elle might not be good enough, but circumstances & price make her usable. The 30-1 shot She’s Popular interests me, too. She’s won two of her last three & didn’t show her best losing two back, and her recent 5fs bullet is encouraging. She seems to have far more room to grow than a horse like Summer of Fun. UNBELIEVABLE DREAM and OVERHEARD ran one-two at KEE this past spring in the Appalachian, though I’m not convinced either horse will much like it wet, and the former as a difficult wide draw. EVERY WAY was hurt by the modest pace I’m Already Sexy set in the Pucker Up and has a win on yielding, and I won’t rule her out, either. The ones I don’t like? NELLIE CASHMAN, YUZURU, FRIVOLOUS, MISS LAMOUR, SUSTAINED, and I O IRELAND. But in the end, from this perspective the Valley View just looks too tricky for terribly strong opinions. - Marcus Hersh
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Race 10 |
VULNERABLE FAVORITEGLAMOUR GALORE (3-1): Presque Isle Downs shippers have done well and this filly comes off an easy win there but she figures to face more pace pressure today. -Kenny Peck
SPOT PLAYGUILDED REWARD (#4, 12-1) figures to get ideal race flow, as the finale on this card seems to be loaded with pace; may be overlooked as she ships in from Thistledown but it's worth noting she won the last time she was on this circuit, scoring when in for $7,500 at Churchill Downs back in April. -Kenny Peck
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