Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 17, 2013

Race 1

Live Longshot

Taking a shot with ARIPEKA (#7, 12-1), who could be the main speed with aggressive handling in the early stages; may get the jump on favorite TIU, who is clearly capable on his best figures but he's 0-for-10, and he'll be looking to come from well off the pace. -Kenny Peck

Spot Play

BARE YOUR HEART's (#5, 8-1) trainer had good AP meet. Positive class hike here off encouraging post-last-start work pattern. Like distance progression -- 6fs, 8fs, 9fs – & he is bred to be better in first try around two turns. - Marcus Hersh

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Race 2

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Race 3

Spot Play

GONE TURBO's (#2, 12-1) Lone Polytrack running line looks poor but note early 4-wide designation: If that’s where you were in 1-turn Poly race most of AP meet, you were dead. Working encouragingly. Classes up fine here. - Marcus Hersh

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Race 4

Spot Play

EASY CROSSING (#7, 12-1) – willing to toss his last when perhaps he didn’t care for the Kentucky Downs course; excuse that race and his form is respectable, and the favorites in this lineup have some vulnerability. – Byron King

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Race 5

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Race 6

Spot Play

GROUND TRANSPORT (#7, 5-1) didn’t lift a hoof in synthetic-surface debut last out. Just toss that race & do same with troubled Illinois Derby. Bred top & bottom for this trip on grass. Sharp works, upside. - Marcus Hersh

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Race 7

Vulnerable Favorite

HARD ACES (#3, 3-1) is not a bad horse, but just don’t see him getting better now, & he probably prefers dirt to Polytrack. Others seem more likely to jump past him this start.- Marcus Hersh

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Race 8

Sycamore Stakes Analysis

As nine-horse fields go, it really doesn’t get much more contentious than what they’ve assembled Thursday for the G3 Sycamore at Keeneland. Not one of the 9 can be easily dismissed, and hitting the verticals looks like a serious challenge.

That said, can’t help but notice how Olympic Thunder turned a corner last out in the key race toward the Sycamore, the Kentucky Turf Cup. McPeek has always held this Brazilian-bred in high regard, and with 3 races now under him, he could develop into a regular player in these turf marathons. Once again he’ll be part of what hopefully is a moderate pace.

Najjaar was scratched from the Turf Cup when “not eating right for a couple days,” according to Peitz, but clearly he’s one of the viable contenders here when you refer to his steady form vs. similar sorts … as are some of the others, of course. Najjaar pegged at 20-1 on the M/L, but no way he’s actually that price; still, he might be of some value.

The bet: Tie up Olympic Thunder (#4, 8-1) and Najjaar (#7, 20-1) in some tri’s and supers by using some of the other contenders such as Reflecting (#2), Temeraine (#3), Suntracer (#5), and Tricky Hat (#9). Best of luck. - Marty McGee

Spot Play

EAGLE POISE (#1, 12-1) probably was best in LRL Turf Cup, where wide draw and ground loss did him in. Should still be moving forward in 3rd start back from long break. Know he stays the 12fs which, if anything, is on the short side.- Marcus Hersh

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Race 9

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Race 10

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