Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 4, 2014
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Spot PlayPROFESSOR MIDNIGHT (#9, 10-1): There are a number of horses who will take solid play in this way-wide-open 1x turf route, and fans are apt to overlook this Rusty-trained 4yo off the layoff. But throw out his last, and know that he’s been training forwardly at PmM, and suddenly there could be an upset in the making on this stretchout. C-Lan, as usual, will offer value in most rides here when the fans keep pounding the Johnny V.’s and Rosarios of the racing world. – Marty McGee
Vulnerable FavoriteBIG N PERFECT (#3, 3-1) has a win and a second in two starts, but figures to get bet down from his 3-1 morning line, especially adding Lasix for the first time; the Clement stable has a 17% win record on turf at Keeneland over the past 5 years, but short prices on the winners would have resulted in a ROI of $1.12. – Byron King
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Spot PlayRANGER REGIMENT (#2, 8-1): First-time gelding does face some really nice-looking firsties in here (i.e., Coastal Moon, King of Bay, Watery Moon), but none of those who’ve run are all that daunting, especially the M/L fave, H Town Brown, who’s had enough chances already. Form is pretty ugly on this one, but look close at his decent turf/synth priors and know he came to hand down in Nola over the winter. More C-Lan value to be had here. – Marty McGee
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Transylvania Stakes by Marty McGeeAll the speed to soften up M/L fave Storming Inti (#10) in this two-turn turf race (i.e., Kody With a K, Laddie Boy) might ultimately make things just a little too tough on him, but then there’s the other Chad runner, Pleuven (#8), who the trainer says might well have a decided edge if the course has some “give” to it (and it sure figures to, given all the rain that was forecasted). With two solid off-the-pace efforts vs. top-flight company under his belt in SoFla, Pleuven should be primed for a top try in the third race of his form cycle, and we’ll make him and A.Garcia one of our keys in here. The other key is the Proctor runner, Global View (#9), who has been a standout almost from the word “go” and already is a graded winner. The trainer couldn’t say enough good things about him in an interview earlier in the week, and he’s not one to boast unnecessarily. Global View also should have a race-shape advantage when he and turf-pro Lezcano go stalking the front-runners from a favorable spot. The play: tie up #8 and #9 as top-keys in tri and super wheels when also using a handful of other longer-priced chances, i.e., 8,9/8,9/1,2,11,12 and 8,9/1,2,11,12/8,9, and variations thereof. Have a good Keeneland meet!
Spot PlayPLEUVEN (#8, 4-1) provided the Transylvania stays on the grass, and is not moved to the Poly, it will likely be run under wet conditions – circumstances that should favor Pleuven, who won on soft turf last year as a 2-year-old in France; two good runs on very firm ground at Gulfstream this winter. – Byron King
Live LongshotMEDAL COUNT (#1, 12-1) didn't earn the biggest of figures in that lone turf try but he was a sharp in victory, overcoming a slow pace to win with a nice late surge; no threat in the Fountain of Youth but he was against race flow and bias, and was probably overmatched. -Kenny Peck
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