Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 19, 2014
Race 1 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 3 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 4 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 5 |
Spot PlayENCHANTING LISA (#4, 5-1) on the sidelines since solid effort here last autumn where she dueled in legitimate fractions before yielding late to a closer; gets the rail and Lezcano but need listed price minimum. Chuck Kuehhas
Closer Looks >> |
Race 6 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 8 |
Ben Ali Stakes by Marty McGeeCan’t help but lean toward several horses who’ve run huge races over this Kee Poly, those being Nikki’s Sandcastle (#3, 6-1 M/L), Joha (#4, 12-1), Frac Daddy (#9, 8-1), and Newsdad (#10, 3-1). Nikki’s Sandcastle was terrific in winning the Fayette here in the fall; Joha won the G1 Br. Futurity at 2; Frac Daddy exploded in an alw. win last fall; and Newsdad set a track record (at 10 fur.) at 3 before validating that with a victory in the 2012 Fayette. The play: Let’s use a solid approach and simply tie up all four of those every which way possible (multi-race part-wheels and all the verticals) and look for history to repeat itself, so to speak.
Spot PlayRED RIFLE (#7, 5-1) and FRAC DADDY (#9, 8-1) look interesting in the Ben Ali, as their early speed should give them an edge on the stone closers in a race lacking obvious pace; using both equally in multi-race exotics. -Kenny Peck
Spot PlayJOHA (#4, 12-1) grade 1 winner over this track wanted no part of 12 furlongs last time out; love the rider change to Castellano and cut back to nine furlongs, but demand double digit odds. - Chuck Kuehhas
Vulnerable FavoriteNEWSDAD (#10, 3-1) will be well bet off the win in the Pan American but while he's also proven on synthetic that win was on the turf; more importantly, he was well set up there by the race flow, which doesn't seem to favor the closers this time. -Kenny Peck
Closer Looks >> |
Race 9 |
Lexington Stakes by Byron KingPOKER PLAYER was dull in two starts on the Turfway Poly, passing only tired horses in the Battaglia and then finishing 10th in the Spiral. But the Keeneland Poly seems to have less kickback, which should benefit a late runner like him. He won the off-the-turf Bourbon here in fast time in October of last year in his lone Keeneland appearance. He gets blinkers off, and he could go off even higher than his 10-1 morning line. MR SPEAKER is one of the top 3-year-old turfers in the country, and if he takes to the Poly, these horses are likely running for second, but not all grass horses do, something to keep in mind if he is a short price. DIVINE OATH is perfect in two starts, winning turf races over Ring Weekend and Big Bazinga, horses that gained attention on the Derby trail this spring. Like MR SPEAKER, has lacks Poly experience. In checking Formulator statistics of all eight trainers with horses in the Lexington, 20 percent won – not a bad clip – but on average 6 of their 10 turf-to-synthetic runners were off the board. Turf success does not always transfer to Poly success.
Closer Looks >> |
Race 10 |
Closer Looks >> |