Keeneland: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 18, 2014
Race 1 Formulator PPs |
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Race 3 Formulator PPs |
Vulnerable FavoriteCHART TOPPER (#1, 5-2) has high speed but there are others in here with early zip; he has two wins to his credit but in both he was loose on the lead, and that kind of trip may not be in the cards today. -Kenny Peck
Spot PlayTHUNDER STRIKE (#2, 3-1): Reports are all favorable about this North American newbie who flashed major talent overseas for prior connections. Sports a slew of nice works over the Palm Meadows lawn and gets first Lasix for trainer (Motion) with a 25-pct strike rate with this imported type. Rosario takes the call, nice; barn realllllly likes. – Marty McGee
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Spot PlaySO FESTIVE (#10, 6-1): Could be a grand day for Motion as this first-timing filly takes part in one of those typically wide-open Kee MSW routes after getting quite the foundation this winter in SoFla. Won’t be surprised to see her lag back early before she makes a sustained run; pedigree (especially the bottom side, Gilded Time) suggests she’ll have a nice turn of foot. Price should be square. – Marty McGee
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Race 8 Formulator PPs |
Spot PlaySTAR PEARL (#7, 4-1) middle-moved and faded in an off-the-turf race when last seen but she should be expected to run a much better race here if indeed back on the grass; working well for a solid layoff barn. -Kenny Peck
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Race 9 Formulator PPs |
Doubledogdare Stakes by Marty McGeeLike, how can you go against Emollient (#10) in here? Perhaps if this was her first start off the bench, or on a different surface, well sure, taking a stand against the 6-5 M/L favorite would be worth the risk. But after badly needing that race last month at Santa Anita, and when returning to a surface over which she is 2-for-2 – in Grade 1 company, no less – it seems silly to try to beat Emollient in this particular G3 spot. That said, it’s worth looking for key plays in the surrounding races for multi-race purposes, as well as usable “unders” for the verticals. Sisterly Love (#7) looked particularly sharp in returning to form on opening weekend with that win over the Poly for the red-hot Casse/Elliott team, and she’s a logical key for those tricks. The play: Let’s single Emollient on-top everywhere while using Sisterly Love in the 2nd and 3rd holes when part-wheeling some tri’s and supers, like this: 10 with 7 with 2/6/8/11; and 10 with 2/6/8/11 with 7; and any related variations thereof.
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Race 10 Formulator PPs |
Live LongshotFIGHTER SQUADRON (#3, 10-1): Toss the stateside debut, an off the turf affair where he surprisingly ran anyway; his company lines are littered with subsequent Group winners, including Leading Light, who went on to win the G1 St Leger. Improved effort expected today. - Chuck Kuehhas
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