Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 4, 2013
Race 1
| Daddy's Pleasure |
| 20K RNA yrlng; 1/2 G2 route SP Crimson Knight (176K, 1-2 at 2, 3-13 sprint) by 18% 2yo FTS sire; dam won route (100K, 1-2 at 2, 0-11 sprint) with 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (1-1 with 2yo, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SP Morethanaprincess (74K); barn 1-9, $1.02 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth mdn sprint; 9/6 work match Stash the Cat (2nd FTS 40K MCL 48 Beyer). |
| Athenian Beauty |
| 11K yrlng, 40K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; 1/2 SW 2yo sprint Im A Dixie Girl (167K), turf SW First Ascent (141K, 0-2 sprint) by 9% 2yo FTS sire; SW dam (438K, 1-10 at 2, 1-22 sprint) has 4 wnrs/7 rnrs (1-5 with 2yos, 3-7 sprinters); barn 2-11, $3.70 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth MCL sprint KEE); 9/28 KEE Clocker Report notes, "Improving. Better than Elemonate." |
| Don't Tell Me No |
| Sire 3-52 (6%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprint (13K, 2-6 sprint) and has 4 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters); female family French turf SW Bon Appetit; barn 0-20 past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic maiden sprint. |
| Deemie |
| 15K yrlng, 30K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 SW All Hail Stormy (297K, 0-2 at 2, 5-29 sprint) by G1 sprint SW (1.2M, 5-6 at 2, won FTS, 1-14 with 2yo FTS); dam won route (39K, 0-2 at 2, 0-6 sprint) with 9 wnrs/11 rnrs (1-6 with 2yos, 6-10 sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Summer Prince (176K, 0-2 at 2, 5-40 sprint); barn 1-21, $6.05 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS (0-1 synth). |
| Primmensity (IRE) |
| By multiple G1 turf SW (3.5M, 2-2 at 2, this is 1st 2yo FTS in North America); unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 multiple G2 turf SW Lisieux Rose (329K), G3 turf SP Utterly Heaven (62K); barn 1-9, $0.93 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MCL synthetic sprint; 8/31 work match Ms. Jean Elizabeth (29 turf Beyer). |
| Jojo's Gal |
| Sire 9-83 (11%) 2yos; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam full G3 SP Imprimature (91K, 3-12 sprint), 1/2 turf SW Apasionata Sonata (155K, 0-3 sprint); barn 13%, $1.14 pst 5 yrs 2yos dirt-synth; chased Schuylerville winner key debut but threw in towel very early after pace dispute vs. males, flagging tail when urged; drop helps; capable; demand value. |
| Seven Point Six |
| Sire 13-62 (21%) 2yo FTS; first starter from 2yo FTS sprint winner (21K, 1-2 at 2, 1-5 sprint); female family G2 SW Anet (1.1M, 2-4 at 2, 2-6 sprint); barn 0-6 past 5 years all 2yos; bred speed with quick gate work 9/28; may need one. |
| Araksia |
| By 13% 2yo sire; dam placed sprint (5K) with 3 wnrs/5 rnrs (0-4 with 2yos, 1-5 sprinter); dam 1/2 G1 route SP Union City (183K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint), full 2yo G2 SP Steady Cat (224K, 5-18 sprint); barn 0-8 pst 5 yrs 2yos dirt-synthetic; broke on top last out, but was kept wide 1st turn and never got involved; gets big drop and can improve; price potential. |
| Sheered |
| 5.5K RNA yrlng by 12% 2yo sire; dam won route (35K, 0-9 at 2, 0-9 sprint) and has 1 wnr/2 rnrs (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 sprinters); 3rd dam multiple G2 SW Luminaire (179K, 1-2 at 2); barn 2-6, $1.16 pst 5 yrs 2yos dirt-synth MCL sprint (0-2 KEE); showed improved speed with Lasix, setting 3-ply pace along rail, but had no gas when set down; must improve. |
| Stickthelanding |
| Sire 46-427 (11%) 2yos; dam won turf (19K, 0-1 sprint) with 3 wnrs/6 rnrs (2-3 with 2yos, 3-6 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Factotum (42K, 0-1 at 2, 1-7 sprint); barn 2-13, $1.56 pst 5 yrs 2yo synth sprint; think she faced a good one in Cosmic Emergency both outs at PID (78 Beyer at 1-10 on 8/20, then SP vs. males 9/8); fits well, but needs Beyer boost. |
| Midnight Eclipse |
| 70K yrlng, 65K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.2, 25K 2yo after 3F work 34; sire 18% 2yos; 1st starter from sprint winner (28K); dam 1/2 G1 SW sprinter Malibu Mint (723K); barn 3-12, $2.25 pst 5 yrs 2yos synth MCL sprint (0-1 KEE); looked good turning for home 8/30 AP, but refused to switch leads until late and was leg-weary at the wire; strong pace factor. |
| U S Dream |
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19K RNA shrt yrlng by multiple turf SW (481K, 3-3 at 2, 2-26 with 2yos); dam G1 turf SW (214K, 2-2 at 2) with 3 wnrs/5 rnrs (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 sprinter); dam full G3 SW Miss Lenora (102K, 0-4 at 2); barn 1-3, $2.33 pst 5 yrs 2yos turf-synth sprint (0-2 KEE); hooked up in a duel, but hung in gamely over testing turf; figures close up early; respect. By Dan Illman |
Race 3
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Race 4
| Exercens |
| Reverts to the rail where she was victorious two back; last try at Churchill was better than the running line implies where she made two moves; would actually benefit if a stronger early pace unfolds today which will probably be the case if all runners go. |
| Chinchero |
| In her latest turf venture, she held on very well; in her sole try over this course last season, she flashed brief speed while caught on a wide path; she has improved substantially since then (with the introduction of blinkers) and may be able to turn back with effectiveness now. |
| Reachfortheclouds |
| Crushed her n2l field recently at Mountaineer but was involved with some soft middle fractions along the way; maturing filly gets a true test for character here and obtaining the hat trick will prove no easy task. |
| Millies Star |
| Should have gained some valuable conditioning in her grass debut last month when narrowly defeated by a repeat winner; with her ascending Beyer pattern, she may be able to stay within striking range of the front-runners here. |
| Case Cracker |
| One of the main speeds to consider and, just as important, picks up Baird who has an excellent record over the last few seasons for these connections; this lass is dangerous if not pressured during the backstretch run. |
| Bella Figlia |
| Respectable try on the green 2 months ago and the subsequent work tab shows steady progression; her sire was a pure sprinter, and a talented one; this lass could prove to be the right value play in open race. |
| Three D |
| Raced evenly last time while disappointing as the 9 to 5 favorite; makes only her third start of the year and did turn in a commendable placing here nearly a year ago; will offer a much more generous price today and can surprise. |
| St. Louie Slew |
| Earned a personal best Beyer when breaking through the n2l condition at Arlington; she breezed very well since and draws a good attack post; although without a money finish in her 2 tries at today's distance, both of those efforts were against better stock. |
| Top Tier Lass |
| Claimed 3 times in a row and now in the hands Michael Maker who has a fine record with new acquisitions; this daughter of Street Boss did not seem to handle the sloppy track at Saratoga but breezed very well over this surface last week; consider. |
| My Princess Dawn |
| Puzzling possibility makes her second start under these silks; in the last run on the turf, she unleashed a deceptively fine middle move before leveling off at the eighth pole; did not fire when beginning her career at this oval but has since shown better late kick than many of these foes. |
| Cherokee Callie |
| On the shelf since displaying decent route speed in the spring; she was a clear-cut second in her only appearance here and there are even gaps in the workout regimen during the last month or so; a generous price on the board is certain. |
| Regal Melody |
| Exits an above average race at Presque Isle where she finished strong to just miss the place; she returns to a winning distance here and looks like a true contender even from this dismal outpost; worth some follow-up. By Jim Kachulis |
Race 5
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Race 6
| Night Party |
| Set the pace in a similar-KEE event in April; 76 days since latest-strakes loss on dirt; is back on a synthetic surface for the 1st time since a May loss finishing behind the runner-up and show finishers who posted 92-84 Beyer speed figures in next-out CBY-125K and 50K stakes wins. |
| Xbalanque |
| Exits a best-last-race Beyer on turf posting a career-best speed figure 1st time on the green; has a rock-solid synthetic-surface record but today is start 1 at KEE which can be a tricky surface: the 3-back winner repeated with an 87 Beyer taking a next-out AP-66K stakes. |
| Heaven's Runway |
| Speedster does his best work racing right on the lead; 1st try on KEE synthetic today; he beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 85 winning a DEL alw. next out; the 3-back show runner graduated in a PRM-MSW race next out with a 68 speed figure. |
| Mellow Fellow |
| 2 of his 3 wins were right on the lead; he wants a piece of the early action today; KEE-6F graduate one year ago his best Beyer and best form has been on turf when loose on the lead at longer; know him early then hopes to hang on late for a share. |
| Stormy Going |
| 2-for-2 over today's KEE synthetic; the 3-back winner repeated with an 87 Beyer capturing a 75K-RP-stakes win then won again 2 starts later in a 100K-RP event with a 94 speed figure; career-best Beyer was at shorter on synthetic when right on the lead which seems his best game but catches a field loaded with other frontrunners. |
| Central Banker |
| Benefits being a closer in a race filled with gate speed; today is his 1st race on a synthetic surface facing accomplished runners on this type of oval; 39%-winning jockey-trainer combo since 2012 adds to the appeal; the 3-back winner and show finishers Beyered 98-90 in next-out SA-Grade 3 and FG-optional-claiiming wins. |
| Villandry |
| Lone absence with bullet workouts on KEE synthetic for this; he's won before off extended vacations and has fired very well fresh during career; beat the runner-up finisher from last who took his next 4 in a row including a 108 Beyer in a Grade 2 at OP; in lone race on synthetic beat the 2-back show runner an 85 Beyer next-out FG alw. winner; the 3-back winner repeated in a DEL-Grade 3 with a 97. |
| Lonesome Street |
| April, 2012, Grade 2-SW over the KEE oval at 7F but recent form has been way off best game; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 87 in his next-out KEE-optional-claiming score; benefits being a late runner in a field top heavy with gate speed but needs a massive-wakeup call off recent form to score. |
| Bethel |
| Was outrun at 63-1 odds in the only other start on KEE synthetic; raced with front wraps again for latest light Beyer defeat; last win was on a wet-main track which seems like the type of oval he may need to succeed eventually; a tough call here. |
| The Thinker |
| Leaves a 25%-winning trainer which is a not a good win angle; 1st time racing on a synthetic surface today is another issue; the 2-back winner captured his next 2 races including 96-95 Beyers in AQU-75K stakes and optional-claiming wins; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 90 in next-out AQU-optional-claiming triumph. |
| Sir Applesolutely |
| Has never raced this long of a distance for a trainer 0-for-13 since 2012 first-time out with newly-acquired runners; being outfinished 2-back at a shorter distance does not bode well for the added yardage of this event; drawn wide so will likely lose a lot of ground; others appeal more. |
| Bull Dozer |
| Owns the right style to win this as a late runner seems to have the edge in an event top heavy with inside-gate speed; posted a field-best Beyer on a wet-main track; the 2-back winner repeated with a 94 speed figure taking an FP-52K stakes; lone synthetic start was a KEE runner-up finish defeating the show runner who Beyered 79 capturing a next-out PID alw. By Art Gropper |
Race 7
| One Golden Road |
| A case can be made for this gelding being better off racing over turf than dirt, and his best effort doesn't appear to be quite good enough to beat this field, but ignore this owner/trainer tandem at your own risk as they won with 20 of 50 (40%) starters at the Keeneland spring meeting; Garcia has won with 21 of 75 (28%) mounts for Maker in 2013. |
| Rivendell |
| This is a barn that has won with 33 of 136 (24%) turf starters the past five years and they see fit to call upon the regular rider of Wise Dan for this; his career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over this turf course, and he might be ready to give a good account of himself while making his third start back from a layoff. |
| Paroled |
| Don't like to see that he has just a single victory next to his name after 18 starts, and his complete lack of early speed is always a concern, but his best effort is strong enough to suggest that he has the ability to be competitive against competition of this caliber. |
| I'll Call |
| He has a strong pedigree for turf and it's worth noting that he was impressive in his only start over this turf course in his career debut; his only poor start to date was his one start wearing blinkers; must consider. |
| City Connect |
| He's another late running type to consider in here and his two most recent races have been the two strongest performances of his career; feel that he's eligible to be ready to show up with a decent run while making his second start back from a layoff. |
| O'Prado Ole |
| Respect the improvement he's shown through his first four starts and like to see that he's being returned to action on relatively normal rest, but he's is going to need to step it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale to threaten the top contenders in here. |
| Hypothetical |
| He has a good deal of quality to his pedigree, and if he can show up with one of his better efforts, he might be able to sneak his way into a spot underneath in the exotics; others entice more, but not willing to count him out of the mix. |
| True Bee |
| He has four wins next to his name, something that none of his rivals in here can boast, but he's also made 42 career starts, and he's winless in his last 11 starts going back through 2012; note that he's seeking his first turf victory; looking toward others. |
| Red Wings |
| Multiple stakes placed veteran has been so-so at best in his six turf attempts and his career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over dirt; leaning toward others but willing to pgrade his chances slightly if this race is moved to the synthetic surface. |
| Gladhander |
| He ran okay over turf at Indiana three and four starts ago, and he brings some early speed with him, but his best effort doesn't appear to be up to the level of the top contenders in this one. |
| Prado Cat |
| His overall turf form hasn't been bad, and even though he was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing, he was sent to post as a favorite in that race; however, he must bounce back to a top try to have a say in the outcome; one of two in her for Romans. |
| Barzini |
| He's the second Maker-trained horse to look at in this race and he can prove to be the dominant early speed in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at Del on 9/14 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25-20k N3L claimers with a 74 Beyer; Napravnik has won with 42 of 150 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013. By Brian Pochman |
Race 8
| Marchman |
| Del Mar import won on a synthetic surface in his most recent out and also has some history over the main track at Keeneland, where he was second in his debut last October; has speed to hold position from rail, judging from five-eighths move in 58.40 seconds 9/18. |
| Occasional View |
| He's turning back in distance and as a result he could find himself racing farther off the pace than he was in his most recent out; did sharpen his skills for the cutback with a half-mile drill 9/25; a synthetic track specialist, with three of his four wins coming over such surfaces. |
| Reload |
| Half-brother to Grade 3 winners Philanthropist and Defer hooked a bear in his last start in Immortal Eyes, who after their meeting won both the Teddy Drone, with a Beyer of 95, and the DeFrancis Memorial Dash, with a Beyer of 108; follows a winning pattern into this race, as he is returning from a freshening and note his last win came off the bench, at this six-furlong distance at Kee; he popped a career-high Beyer of 101. |
| Global Power |
| He's a three-time stakes winner making a couple of noted moves; he's cutting back to a sprint distance for the first time in a while, and he's also making his first start on a synthetic surface; has set some fast fractions in his route races, but on cutback looking for him to bid in the later stages. |
| Jasizzle |
| He appears to have more natural speed than a number of his rivals, including all of those situated to his inside; this could give him a tactical advantage, if he can shake loose in a large field; the concern is there is quality speed to his outside, and he could face real pressure; another question is the synthetic track. |
| Laugh Track |
| He's been flattered since his Grade 3 win last out at WO, with the runner-up to him returning in his next start to account for the Grade 3 Bold Venture at WO with a Beyer of 95, and the third-place finisher, a $62.5K optional claimer, also in Toronto, with a Beyer of 84; has the kind of speed that might afford him an ideal tracking trip in large field. |
| Gentlemen's Bet |
| Iowa Sprint champ gets his first test over a synthetic surface; he brings outstanding speed to the table, and like the fact that he has shown versatility, winning from both on and off the pace; he also owns a series of imposing Beyer Figures; quality runner has class appeal for his Grade 1-placing last out at Sar; win candidate. |
| Go Blue Or Go Home |
| Grade 3 winner returned from a freshening in a turf race at WO and now moves back to a synthetic track, site of his biggest career win; he has speed and can sit and draws well, to the outside of some of his main pace rivals; bred in Virginia, he's a half-brother to stakes winner Hugo ($187K); leading contender. |
| Hoofit (NZ) |
| He's a past winner of this race, two years ago at the age of 4; he's returning to a sprint distance for the first time in a while and looking for him to be making his case in the later stages; he also can move forward in his second start since July. |
| Ghost Is Clear |
| He exits a quick-paced race in which he stalked and pounced, proving a head best in his first out since July; could get a similar pace setup were a few of these to go at it, and while he has done the bulk of his best work on dirt or turf, he is a winner over a synthetic surface; stakes winner is capable. |
| Sum of the Parts |
| He's the highest earner in the field with a bankroll pushing $600K; he also exits a key race, as the winner, who he faces again here, returned in his next start to take the Grade 3 Highlander at WO with a Beyer Figure of 98, and the fourth-place finisher, Occasional View, a $62.5K optional claimer at PID, with a Beyer of 96; is a past winner of this race, taking it at 3; brings excellent speed to the table-check out work 9/25-and draws outside of his pace rivals; must consider. |
| Hogy |
| Grade 3 winner has won five stakes overall and with earnings of $562K is one of the richest members of this field; he's cutting back in distance like a handful of these and as a result looking for him to be making his case in the later stages; comes into this with his confidence soaring, as a winner of his last two starts, both in stakes; win candidate. |
| Laurie's Rocket |
| One of three in the field who have earned more than $500K; he will be seeking his first win on a synthetic surface and from just one start on such a track he was third in a race at Kee; has tactical speed and it should serve him well from his wide post; two-time stakes winner goes for the Horton-Lukas team behind Will Take Charge. |
| Winning Cause |
| Grade 3 winner is perfect over the main track at Kee, and there are just a few in this race that can claim a win over the local strip; makes a notable distance move, cutting back from a mile and an eighth to six furlongs and suspect he will be making his case in the later stages; contender. |
| Console |
| AE would most likely be stuck well wide were he to draw into the body of the race; do like that he has been in sprint mode as a number of these will be turning back in distance; he also is a winner over the local main track, last fall in an allowance at this six-furlong trip; peak race in third start off layoff? By Mary Rampellini |
Race 9
| Designer Legs |
| Promoted via dq in the Adirondack, a race in which heavy favorite Fiftyshadesofgold had her share of trouble; didn't seem comfortable early in the sloppy Spinaway and was no match for promising Sweet Reason; gets a test trying 2 turns and polytrack for 1st time, but may be a bit closer to the pace while saving valuable ground; demand value. |
| Richies Party Girl |
| Ran a fine race vs. decent foes 2 back in France; Last time, she hesitated leaving the gate but soon found herself in front; turned back 2 stiff challenges and got the bob at the wire; may have to go faster early here, however, and may find this extra distance testing; prefer on bottom of exotics. |
| Sweetsoutherndame |
| Rallied widest over a 1-turn mile at AP, but the pace was extremely fast and closers had an edge; it wasn't surprising that she ran her fastest race in the Lassie as her sire, Colonel John, was a stout performer; more distance in a race full of pace seems like a recipe for a good performance; prefer 'underneath' |
| Maria Maria |
| Perhaps aided by speed track when graduating, but was flattered when 2nd- and 3rd-finishers returned to score with 69 and 73 Beyers; settled behind a strong pace last time and split horses to get into contention; seemed reluctant to drive in between when a narrow hole opened in stretch; think she has talent, but prefer others on top. |
| Personal Diary |
| Thought she ran a nice race last time as she was outsprinted in the early going and had to alter course sharply to the outside after running up on heels turning into the straight; although never threatening the top two, she came with a good late run to pick up a minor award; she'll get some pace to attack in this spot, but will get a stern class test. |
| Battlefield Angel |
| Didn't have good trip last time; bobbled leaving gate, trailed early and followed Maria Maria on turn; stopped in traffic upper stretch and tired after failing to change leads final 1/8th; expect her to be near leaders here; 9/27 KEE Clocker Report notes she "was not asked for run, galloped out well (1:12/3)"; dam won 2x at trip, but distance still slight concern. |
| My Conquestadory |
| Burst on the scene by beating males 1st-out in the G2 Summer around a 1-turn mile on turf; worked an excellent trip tracking pace along inside before easing 3 wide turning for home; looked strong in the stretch and earned an excellent Beyer; tries two turns and polytrack, but has good tactical speed and should get pace to run at; dangerous. |
| Lil Honey Badger |
| Not sure she beat much at Indiana and has surface, distance and class concerns to address; beat the gate, but figures to face a whole lot more pressure if she attempts those tactics here; dam was a pure sprinter so the distance is a question mark; quality barn shows confidence by choosing this spot, but taking a wait-and-see approach for now. |
| Harlan's Special |
| Looks like she's rounding into form; covered a ton of ground last time as 5 wide on 1st turn and 4 wide on backstretch; challenged odds-on leader on final bend and had that one's number turning for home; veered in greenly when smacked right-handed and was dq'd despite being best; barn 4-15 (27%, $2.54 ROI) past 5 years dirt-synthetic; not out of it. |
| She's Offlee Good |
| She's shown admirable versatility in both polytrack starts at Arlington; pressed the pace en route to a debut score over three next-out winners and took advantage of hot splits to run down the speeds in the Lassie; there should be ample pace for her to track in the Alcibiades and the extra distance shouldn't be an issue; professional filly can't be ignored. |
| Who's in Town |
| Swift filly was slapped by stewards after setting the splits over speed-favoring track; working quickly for quality barn and may be the speed of the speed; will probably have to motor if she is to make the front and the distance could prove demanding; know her early, but think the combination of trip and other speeds doom her to minor award. |
| Rosalind |
| It looked like she was being outrun on the final turn of the Pocahontas, but she kicked it in late and galloped out nicely; adds Lasix for barn that has 4 placings from five 1st-Lasix users in graded stakes over the past 5 years; has strong turf pedigree and that may translate well to polytrack; late kicker should get the proper pace scenario and must be respected. |
| Russian Night |
| Hopped at the start of her debut, looked very green going into the 1st turn, and never picked up her feet at long odds vs. maidens; needs immense improvement in order to threaten these tougher rivals; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/29, she "was going strongly at the wire"; hard to endorse. By Dan Illman |