Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 23, 2013

Race 1

She'll Get Even

Making progress; dueled and ran 3rd routing at CD Sept. 20 for $40K so today comes another drop; that likely needs to help, too - after all, while she did run 3rd it's not like she was a threat in the lane (beaten 8 1/2 lengths); tries synthetic for the first time, too.

Camille Garey

First synthetic try, on PID's Tapeta Track Sept. 3, was her best race as she was a game 2nd; not only did she hang in there well vs. a tough winner, but she was tons the best of the rest (9 lengths clear of 3rd); freshened and there's a super :47B work here Oct. 12 that really helps her look good (2nd fastest of 57 at 4fs that day).

Roommate (BRZ)

Debut wasn't much but you can always forgive a debut, and remember, not only was it her bow but it came on turf, routing, vs. straight maidens and she was away poorly to boot; start No. 2, routing on dirt for $40K at CD was better as she plugged along for 4th; still, she likely needs to do quite a bit a bit better if she's to have a say and maybe this further drop and move to synthetic can do the trick.

Street Walkin

Flashed ability and all her work has come vs. straight maidens; best work (2 3rds) has come on turf, though she ran well to be 4th on PID's synthetic track a couple months ago and you've seen many a turf horse come here and flourish over this ground; along with that important drop (Motion 16% with this class move) she's worked well of late at FAI.

Spoonfulofsugar

Showed talent in March with a couple 2nds, first on DED dirt and then on IND turf; there was another 2nd on IND turf July 10 but things have turned south since; dropped in for $50K at CD Sept. 29 but didn't fare too well; now comes another drop and she tries synthetic for the first time; at least Rosie stays and there are some encouraging works on TP's Polytrack to hint she'll handle this place.

Dabblin N Royalty

Solid 2nd over this track at this type of trip Oct. 9 gives her a leg-up on most of these; bided her time and finished decently; that being said, that run also came for just $15K and while being doubled in value is most encouraging it also means facing tougher, though at least these aren't monsters by any stretch; Lasix may have helped last time, too.

Capriani

Good 2nd on this track routing a year ago but the pattern since is worrisome - 9 months off/dull return at ELP/another 3 months off and returning for a tag; work tab has been pretty darn light, too; surely if she returns with the effort level she showed here a year ago she's got a shot, but off that aforementioned pattern that's no small 'if', is it?

Mizzilli

3rd routing on PID's synthetic Sept. 4, which is nice, though let's face it, she was no threat in the lane (beaten 10 3/4 lengths); however, all her work has come vs. straight maidens so today there's a significant class drop and she's been working in smart fashion of late.

Elegant Missy

Ample promise shown on TP's Polytrack last winter/spring with 2 nice 2nds, both routing; trouble is, then came a layoff and she hasn't looked the same since; dropped in for $35K at CD Sept. 20 but that didn't bring about the necessary improvement so now comes another drop and maybe that, coupled with the return to Polytrack, can get things turned around....maybe.

Ruud Grrl

Tough to build a case; yet to be a factor in the lane in 3 starts, that includes her last here Oct. 6 when she set the pace before hitting the brakes hard to finish 12th (last) beaten 40 3/4 lengths at 104-1; in her defense, all 3 outings came vs. straight maidens so there's a significant drop today, and it is encouraging to see a big 3f work here Oct. 18 (:35.40) coupled with the addition of blinkers; but she got no help from the draw, either. By Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Bluegrass Ziggy

Exits a needed comeback sprint race which was above average in quality; she returns to the claiming realm and fortunately lands into a field without much early foot; interesting play with Borel and the rail.

Makin Mo Love

Came up empty as the lukewarm favorite 2 weeks ago but lost serious ground on the clubhouse turn that day; draws an excellent slot here and should be within range of softer fractions; seems worth trifecta inclusion at the very least.

Geneva Lake

Sheds the blinkers after tiring in recent starts at Arlington; sole try over this course was against much stronger company and she should be on or near a soft tempo once again; local breezes have shown progression as well; could be the right value play.

Podarok

Decent try at Mountaineer but she does not have the pace profile of some of the runners to her inside; could pick up a minor award if some of those speedsters hook up early; cannot recommend as the one to key on top.

Polomint

Races for the lowest price tag of her career but did not show much last time out in a 4-horse field; turned in a average half-mile breeze locally thereafter and still has much work to do; perhaps wait until she returns to the turf scene.

Raisela

Very tough beat at Presque Isle last month while the 7 to 5 favorite; was involved with a prolonged pace battle in that event and might be better off now if geared back a bit in the early going; major jockey switch to consider.

Speedy Kitten

Despite being bred for the grass, she has yet to earn an exacta finish over that surface; today marks the all-important first visit to the claiming world, however, and can she can upgrade quickly as a result; improved a tad in latest a.m drill.

Little Blue

She has yet to finish in the money yet she moves up to this higher class today; has no experience over the course and seems destined for a futile wide trip; cannot be endorsed here.

Summer Opera

Her only 2-turn effort was over the grass where she did show a bit of prompting speed; showed major improvement in her latest sprint attempt and should be able to gain favorable stalking position without much difficult; playable despite the numerical rise.

Keri This Day Lori

Unleashed a bold middle move in the last run only to be nailed in the final strides; the naming of Albarado is key as he was aboard for that sharp placing earlier this year at Churchill; can be a major presence in the late stages today.

K to the Croft

Has shown better gate speed than most of these and the latest run over a tiring turf course can be disregarded; best lifetime effort was over this course and against better stock; worth some inclusion based on that fact.

Salt River

Toss the debut effort over the turf which featured a slow getaway; her sire won a G3 and 986K while the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 21K earner Cave Creek Road; can upgrade suddenly with surface switch. By Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Unbridled Muileann

Continues to improve and although recent starts have all been on the turf, he he has shown consistent early speed in those attempts; has to deal with some strechout sprinters today but should be a pace presence in this well-matched field.

Tour Ireland

Beaten favorite returns to the route scene after encountering trouble in the last run; doubles in price and will offer much more generous odds as a result and may be able to work out an ideal stalking trip; difficult call overall.

Colonial's Score

He is a 2-turn specialist and although he failed in two previous attempts at this oval, the last one was against far stronger stock than this; Court was aboard for that venture and he gets the call here; the grey likes to rally from close range.

Silence

Lost a ton of ground in his latest run but thus far has shown no preference at all for this particular track; despite the fact that the veteran gelding is an 8-time winner, he cannot be given the top vote today as he faces nemesis Tour Ireland.

Macho Coach

Chicago invader may have been compromised by the rail in his last start which was at the straightaway mile; best efforts have been around 2 turns and gets a weight concession from the entire field today; seems capable of launching an effective rally from midpack.

Strong Appeal

Goes back to blinkers after turning in a belated rally in the last run at Indiana; ran well for this same price tag in his last appearance at Keeneland and there should be an adequate pace set-up today; worth some follow-up with the equipment change.

Cool C Note

This warhorse showed great determination when hooked in midstretch 2 weeks ago; not sure if he can open up immediate daylight and control the early fractions but he remains an obvious true contender even if he has to assume the secondary speed position; respect.

Ha Long Bay

Confirmed closer needs all the pace help he can get but his best game by far is on the grass; did not fire in 2 prior attempts over this course and a sudden upgrade just does not seem likely; can rally for minor spoils though.

Thatboathassailed

Rested since the claim of more than 2 months ago; his pace profile appears light in comparison to the primary contenders here and he may have a difficult time obtaining favorable early position; seems up against it today.

Eye of the Eagle

If there happens to be some scratches among the pacesetting types to his inside, this gelding is worth serious inclusion; he showed vast improvement, pace-wise, in the latest sprint attempt, and that can enable him to press the issue here at healthy odds; consider.

Dance Idol

Still eligible for the far weaker n3l condition and this post position adds to his woes; has no experience over the course and cannot be recommended until he returns the proper class; pass for now.

Magical Moment

Respectable try earlier this month when middle moving to the lead, only to fade in the final furlong; may have no choice but to be reserved further back from the early front-runners today and launch a bid at the right moment; puzzling item. By Jim Kachulis

Race 5

La Stupenda

Consistent 4-year-old filly looked good winning as the chalk in a $10K claimer Oct. 11 and considering the way she finished she shouldn't have any trouble handling the slightly longer distance; she seems to like it here and with her good tactical speed she should get a nice trip from just off speed that isn't likely going to last; big shot.

Basilio's Thunder

This will be the first time she has raced outside of Chicago but she's coming off a sharp win at Arlington so we do know she can handle Poly; horse she beat finished fifth in a $10K optional starter sprint in her next start with a 68 Beyer Speed Figure; distance could be an issue but would consider using her in the exotics.

Black Tulip

Ran a big race at a nice price in her latest but she hung in the stretch and was easily outfinished by La Stupenda so not sure the added sixteenth is going to work in her favor; she also couldn't keep up to Lady Susan in her previous race at Kentucky Downs and she is looking for her first win over a synthetic track; maybe for the exotics but that's about it.

Roman Innocence

She has certainly improved since she was here in April and although she has been facing conditional claimers at Arlington her recent Beyer Speed Figures aren't out of line; she is certainly bred to go this distance but so far she just hasn't made any impact in any of her races going around two turns; prefer others.

Breath

Tried turf for the first time and apparently didn't like it; of course she was facing substantially tougher company but she certainly fits here and if she can come close to posting the 79 Beyer Speed Figure she received for her sharp win over next-out Hawthorne Park winner Racheslildarling she would win this; barn hasn't had much luck at the meet but Vaschenko has solid stats in the second following a layoff category; contender.

Lady Monavi

She wasn't much of a factor in either of her last two starts in state-bred races at Indiana Downs and she would have to turn things around to make an impact here; her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 45 isn't going to cut it and the only time she ran here she didn't pick up her feet after getting bumped at the start; passing.

Pressthehardways

That was a good effort on turf in a key race at Mountaineer two back; the winner came back to win a $25K optional claimer on turf with a 65 Beyer and the fifth-place finisher won a $10K claming race on turf with a 67 Beyer; she was ovematched in a first-level allowance race in her latest here but she fits a lot better with these; consider for the exotics.

Ruff's Sister

7-year-old mare has just a single win to her credit and she has lost by double digits in her last five races while facing easier company in conditional claiming races; she would have to improve substantially to make any kind of impact here; passing.

Hunt for Colleen

5-year-old mare has improved quite a bit lately and she probably would have won her latest at Thistledown if she didn't lose a lot of ground when she went wide around both turns; she was good enough to overcome a rough trip in her previous race at Presque Isle she has has a decent record over this track; she would need to improve to win this but can see her working her way into the exotics at what should be a decent price;

Kenyafly

Looks like the one they have to catch but she appears to be headed in the wrong direction right now; willing to toss her race on turf at Ellis two back but that was a pretty ugly performance in her latest at Churchill Downs; she has had a few decent works leading up to this and she is the lone speed but others look more attractive.

Lady Susan

Toss her race over yielding turf at Indiana Downs in June and she's been pretty reliable; nice win in her latest in a $12.5K claimer at Kentucky Downs Sept. 25 and she's won on Polytrack at Turfway so the surface switch shouldn't be an issue; the main concern is that she is a bounce candidate after posting her career-best Beyer Speed Figure but she just may be peaking right now; the pick. By Randy Goulding

Race 6

Grand Giant

Great sign that he has raced so well since the barn change including the 2-back field-best Beyer speed figure at shorter than this when beating the show runner who graduated next out in a SAR-50K-maiden claimer with a 74 Beyer; the 3-back winner and runner-up finishers Beyered 102-95 in their next-out BHP-MSW and optional-claiming wins.

Peace Talk

Filly faces the boys; rally from last in most recent fell short noting her best Beyer was at longer than this and way back in the career debut; benefits from an inside draw today and a ground-saving trip; the 1 and 2 post-position races produced some of her-career finishes and her best Beyer.

Dyna Kohinor

Sire is 0-for-5 with 1st-turf starters; he is the 1st foal out of a 5-0-0-0 grass dam; March absentee races 2nd-time Long which can be an improvement angle; sheds weight to his-lowest assignment ever; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 68 in his next-out BEU-MSW win.

Cage Fighter

Claimed off a high-win-percentage trainer by a super 1st-off-the-claim barn; defeated the 2-back show runner who graduated next out in an IND-MSW event with an 81 Beyer; exits a career-low Beyer from post 11 while it appears today's added yaradge will help his cause.

Sonic Dancer

Blinkers come on for the 1st time an 0-for-10 angle for the trainer since 2012; the 4th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 70-61 in next-out IND-MNR-MSW wins; the 86-day layoff for an 0-for-12 trainer with similar-fresh runners suggest we take a wait and see approach for this.

Ledokol

Have mixed reviews from his 2 turf races noting the 3-back green debut represents a career-best Beyer when flashing speed at shorter; being able to obtain today's distance is a major issue; the 4-back winner repeated in the Grade 2 Super Derby with a 104 Beyer; know him early but unsure about late.

Silent Courage

Has never been this far noting his grandsire was a Kentucky Derby-Preakness champion; in his latest turf start faded at 2F shorter than this which clearly makes him an outsider for this; likely works out a little better trip than the 8-wide 10-post try for last.

Delta Golf Alpha

Began career on KEE green with 2 off-the-board finishes while exting a career-low Beyer in latest when unwilling to rate fading after being rank; raced well with 1st blinkers in May a career-best Beyer and his 2-back race at today's distance was a good rally; needs a massive wakeup call off latest to make any impact.

Car Fifty Four

Sire is 32-for-331 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 7-0-0-1 grass dam (4K); just 2 career races so still has some upside while today is 2nd-time Long which is an improvement angle; the last-place finish in a maiden claimer for most recent and now leaping up the MSW level are serious drawbacks here.

Bold Shot

Was outfinished at shorter than this; the added yardage here is a major issue; 2-back rally is a career-best Beyer but in latest where he sat midpack he had nothing to offer in deep stretch; the June show finisher Beyered 79 in his next-out IND-MSW win.

Skinner

Brief speed when a lot more expected in the debut fade at shorter; 38 days since that loss noting some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out; good sign that a 25%-win rider for the trainer shows up today for this; view as a pace presence.

Aaron Again

Sire is 57-for-531 with 1st-turf starters; 105-for-921 with 1st-time starters; is out of an 8-0-2-1 dam (21K) who went 3-0-0-0 on grass; her only other foal to race is 2-for-8 Mist Shadow (32K) who did not race on grass; gives away seasoning and experience to each runner.

Large Scale

Another wide trip is likely after racing evenly from post 10 in last; new runner since adding Lasix in July but in 2 of his 3 losses since July displayed a middle move before faltering; a runner who has already been defeated in lesser-maiden claimin events; off last is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Catbird Seat

Filly faces males for this while the added distance after finishing evenly in latest at shorter may help the cause; has never been this far but in last 3 races rallied like she wanted more yardage; reunites with the rider of both exacta finishes; is another who must overcome this wide-losing post position to earn a share. By Art Gropper

Race 7

Sequester

27K RNA yrlng; sire 2yo G1 turf SW (340K, 1-23 with 2yos); winning dam (242K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 route) has 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos); dam 1/2 turf SW Followmyfootsteps (209K, 0-1 at 2), G3 turf SW Corporate Jungle (293K); Schu deputizes for suspended Gorder; outsprinted through fast splits, she rallied mildly without threatening along rail.

Beth Ann's Kitten

Full turf SW Amen Kitten (123K, 0-6 at 2, 0-1 route) by 19% 2yo sire; dam won route (36K) with 1 wnr/3 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 router); 3rd dam multiple turf SP Land of Ivory (Europe); barn 2-13, $5.38 pst 5 yrs 2yos turf/synth; saved ground most of way before even finish 9/18; six horses have run back from that race; none cracked top 3; demand value

Latique

27K RNA yrlng; sire 15% 2yos; unplaced dam has 3 wnrs/6 rnrs (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 router); dam 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Fantastic Fellow (633K, 1-3 at 2); barn 3-11 (27%, $1.65 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic routes; raced greenly 9/21; broke inward, sat good trip in behind leader on rail and was 2nd-best despite failing to change leads; capable, but still learning.

Russian Night

41K weanling, 23K yearling; 1/2 route SP Royal Dream (103K, 0-4 route) by 16-130 (12%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers); dam full multiple SW Musafi (248K); barn 3-100 (3%, $0.76 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic; overmatched in G1 stake after dull debut on dirt.

Turtle River

Sire 55-328 (17%) 2yos; 1st starter from SW dam (175K, 1-5 route); 3rd dam multiple G1 SW Lakeway (965K, 1-1 at 2, 5-11 route); barn 3-14 (21%, $1.84 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; broke poorly and was far back along inside when finishing behind 2 of these; note that Mott historically better 2nd-out than with firsters.

Angel of Mercy

120K yearling; sire 47-332 (14%) 2yos; dam multiple SW (221K, 2-7 at 2, 0-1 route) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SP True and True (186K, 0-1 at 2); barn 2-11 (18%, $1.00 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; that pace came apart 9/30, but she only made a minimal late impact; expect more speed in first route.

Spangled Banner

1/2 multiple SW Ladyecho (381K, 2-6 at 2, 1-9 at 2), G2-placed router Whatdreamsrmadeof (137K, 1-4 at 2, 0-5 route) by 19% 2yo sire; unraced dam has 5 wnrs/7 rnrs (2-4 with 2yos, 2-6 routes); barn 2-12, $0.91 pst 5 yrs 2yo turf/synth; far back early slow pace, bid 4w, even rally; 10/13 KEE Clocker notes "went easily, was little better than Live For Now"; contender.

Fonepferesh (IRE)

Sire multiple 2yo turf SW (Ireland, 764K, 4-7 at 2, 0-8 with North America 2yos); 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 G1 route SW 2yo Vale of York (1.2M, 3-6 at 2, 1-2 route); barn 10-143 (7%, $0.59 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic (0-11 sprint/route); last entering turn 10/12, steadied slighly when one-paced midstretch; perhaps a bit more speed here.

Sakeena

Sire 14% 2yos; dam won turf (61K, 1-4 at 2) with 2 wnrs from 3 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 router); 2nd dam turf SP Elrehaan (England); barn 14%, $1.48 pst 5 yrs turf/synth (0-2 with 2yos); worked out comfortable pocket trip 9/21, but failed to mount a stretch challenge; 10/15 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "was traveling well at the finish";

Crissy Field

110K RNA yrlng; sire 18% 2yos; placed dam (23K, 0-3 at 2, 0-6 route) with 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (0-3 with 2yos, 2-2 routers); dam 1/2 G3 route SP Pine for Java (137K, 1-11 at 2, 3-15 route); barn 7-35 (20%, $6.60 ROI) past 5 years turf/synthetic (0-3 with 2yos); broke well, but dropped back drastically early, advanced outside on turn and finished evenly outside.

Annulment

Sire 146-1015 (14%) 2yos; 1st starter from route winner (43K, 0-1 at 2, 1-3 route); dam full G3 route SW Ravel (180K, 1-2 at 2, 3-10 route), G1 turf SW Centre Court (789K, 0-1 at 2); barn 1-32 (3%, $0.75 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (0-4 with 2yos); certainly wasn't disgraced in most recent outing at CD and seems well-spotted here.

Streethomealabama

95K yearling by 32-226 (14%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 0 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); female family multiple G1 SW Excellent Meeting (1.4M, 4-8 at 2, 6-14 route); barn 5-39 (13%, $1.26 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic MSW routes; bobbled start, saved ground early before splitting foes 3w far turn; 2nd-best in solid heat. By Dan Illman

Race 8

Middleburg

Colt fits the condtions to a T; connectiions have every right to be high on this guy as he is kin to multiple Grade 1 grass winner and over $1.6 million earner Winchester; he's trained steadily for this, barn is super with returnees that have been similar; all systems go.

Geothermal

If you figure he just needed last then you canmake a case for a move forward; winner of the 2013 opener won twice since, the last in a $50K stakes at Delaware with an 88 Beyer; backers can point to the fact that the lone kin won twice on grass, earned nearly $200K; probably from off the pace if at all.

Farmers' Club

Smart Strike about 12% with first-time turfers in a 610-runner grid; sire won 6 of 8, a Grade 1, never turfed; stakes winning dam earned over $200K, won on grass twice; several mutliple race winners in the tree, one cashed on grass, two banked at least $430K; the 2nd, 7th and 9th finishers 5/27 graduated next out; place horse in last took an N1X next out with a 72 Beyer at PID; pretty snappy drill 5 days ago suggests he is feeling pretty good about himself.

Bold Challenger

Best race vs. winners was clearly local; colt has much more speed than he just showed and note he was forced to steady in the May finale; look for rider to send hard at the sound of the bell and try to steal it.

English Pound

It's been the spirit of 76 Beyerwise vs. winners but at least he has been competing; he has a right to grow into his skin as kin to triple grass winner and near $500K earner Spenditallbaby; with his style, things have to break just right.

Batten the Hatches

Strictly show down since finally graduating in July; could seem him sitting a nice stalk and pounce journey and he could be even more on the muscle with the blinks; note he almost went all the way here in April; interesting.

Piceance

Like the series of drills since the tough beat when the chalk; he did close into the slow pace last time and the winner on 7/26 took a $40K optional next out, then was 2nd beaten a length and a quarter in an $80K optional; backers can hang hat on fact that seveal in he family banked 6 figures; contention goes long.

Marine Patrol

Showed talent from Day One, was hung wide at SAR and three exited that race to graduate next out; a half sis won thrice on grass, banked nearly $135K; runner obviously has a nice turn of late foot; tab clever drill on the 10th; don't ignore.

Bearly Specific

Proven on grass but this is a tougher fray than the Indy finale; forced to steady the first time vs. winners, and note he was checked in the June race; due for a trip.

Chairman Garey

Tons best of the rest two back and he was inching toward the winner in last; 5th finisher in last took a $20K claimer next out and the 8th finisher took an $8K Laurel seller; gelding has the two races to draw from now, gets more experienced pilot too; respect everything from this barn.

Bingo Kitten

Professional in the debut and like the spacing of the drills since; both Catalano's have similar styles so don't see any angle there; best of 12 bullet drill locked and loaded; could need experience vs. winners.

Cougar Ridge

Bet like a good thing in the stateside opener but may appreciate the added distance today; show horse in the Irish final beat 3 foes next out in a $78.2K fray; Group 3 placed last year when nostrilized; runner looks well intentioned.

Music Critik

Gelding ran evenly in the lone grass effort; he had dead aim at the top of the lane, just could not continue with the momentum; soph could be compromised by the slot today.

Simple Interest

Mizzen Mast about 11% with first-time turfers in a 280-runner grid; sire could do anything while banking over $550K; stakes winning sprint only dam earned nearly $170K, never turfed; top kin Credit Only won on grass once, banked nearly $135K; 2nd and 5th finishers 5/24 graduated next out; he may have hated the off going in last; should be forwardly placed if the scratches are kind. By Brian Mulligan