Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 20, 2013

Race 1

Right Prissy

Homebred was freezing on the board and fans were right on the money; dam was just one for 27; 2 of 3 siblings won; top kin Banjammer took 8 of 35, took 6 routes, earned about $160K; still an't endorse.

Rose of Harlan

She improved last time and could be more involved early on the stretch out; 9/6 place horse cashed next out in a maiden $25K claimer, then ran out of the money; she has a shot to mature with grace as full bro Selection Sunday earned nearly $130K and carried speed long on grass; interesting.

Mad Princess

Miss got away with the slow first quarter 2 back and still gave up the ghost; at least there are nothing but winners in the tree; if she can run at all, she figures to show it here.

Frazier's Pegasus

Fusaichi Pegasus has hit with about 11% of his firsters in a 576-runner study; sire ran 2nd in only start at 2, took Kentucky Derby on way to near $2 million bankroll; 2 for 17 dam banked over $100K; this is her first to race; miss does look fit enough.

Holy Harbour

Took her share of action, but was only a brief threat; 4 for 18 dam banked nearly $140K and took one route; this is her first to race; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this gal.

Stickthelanding

Maybe she was just over her head the first 2 times; the race over the surface can't hurt but wonder how high the expectations can be for this $1,500 purchase?; dam's lone win came on grass; 3 of 5 siblings won but were sprint only; top earner Wynning Card took 3 of 14, earned nearly $45K; Beyers are going in the right direction.

Pobeda

She flashed speed once but just has faded quickly every time; the blood is there as she is kin to Grade 3 winner and $420K earner Lantana Mob; needs a total reversal of form.

Free Release

Carefully placed, but it can't be easy moving a horse up from a 29% barn; 1 for 5 dam took a route, earned about $40K; both siblings won; top earner was a double winner who won at a mile twice on grass, and banked nearly $50K; runner was nearly 3 clear in last; respect.

Race 3

Rankhasprivileges

33K yrlng; sire multiple G1 SW ($2.9M, 4-11 route, 2-10 with 2yo FTS); placed dam (18K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 route) has 4 winners from 7 runners (0-5 with 2yos, 2-5 routers); dam full multiple G1 SW Forty Niner ($2.7M, 5-6 at 2, won debut, 7-13 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW route; 9/20, 9/26 works match Sheriff Curly (FTS - R5)

Eirigh

100K yrlng; sire 15% 2yos; unraced dam has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam 1/2 SW Whiskey and Low (146K, 1-1 at 2, 1-3 route); barn 3-10 (30%, $4.66 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; chased G1 Breeders' Futurity winner in slow maiden heat 8/11; 9/28 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he was slightly outworked by Oogeley Eye.

Reach for a Kitten

49K RNA yrlng; full G1 SW Admiral Kitten (559K, 2-2 at 2, 1-2 route) by 17% 2yo FTS sire; turf winner (45K, 1-4 at 2) has 1 wnnr/1 rnnr (1-1 with 2yos, won debut, 1-1 route); family G1 turf SW Cozzene (978K, 0-2 route); barn 30%, $1.65 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth (2-7 routes); 10/14 KEE Clocker notes "not under pressure, easily better than Rumblefortheroses"; consider.

Apache Park

Sire 93-558 (17%) 2yos; 1st starter from SW dam (185K, 1-2 at 2, 1-3 route); dam 1/2 turf SP Acerbic (France), turf SW Averted View (England), 2yo turf SP Avoidance (England); dam full route SP Acronym (159K, 0-1 at 2, 2-6 route); barn 3-15 (20%, $1.72 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; faced 3 next-out winners including G3 Bourbon hero Poker Player.

Ring Weekend

1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Bamboo (73K, 0-1 route) by 15% 2yo sire; SP dam (78K, 2-3 at 2, 0-3 route) has 5 wnrs/6 rnrs (2-5 with 2yos, 1-4 routers); dam full SW Flash of Joy (254K, 0-1 at 2, 8-33 route); barn 2-11, $1.00 pst 5 yrs 2yos dirt/syntH; off beat slow 9/21, made 4w bid FT before tiring; 10/12 KEE Clocker notes he was slightly outworked by Lemon de Oro; capable.

Skestos

14K RNA wnlng; sire 12% 2yos; sprint winner (36K, 0-1 route) has 1 wnr/4 rnrs (0-3 with 2yos, 0-1 router); dam 1/2 multiple G1 SW Gourmet Girl ($1.2M, 2-3 at 2, 6-17 route), 2yo G1 SP Northern Mischief (123K, 1-5 route), 2yo G3 turf SP Marfach (Ireland); barn 0-2 pst 5 yrs dirt/synth (Schu saddles while Gorder is suspended); not much in weak IND heat.

Thunder Run

150K wnlng, 250K yrlng, 150K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; 1/2 sprint SW Quelle Surprise (141K, 0-3 route) by 15% 2yo sire; sprint winner (71K, 0-1 at 2) has 4 wnrs/5 rnrs (1-2 with 2yos, 1-3 route); dam 1/2 G3 turf SW Noisette (485K); barn 4-11, $3.16 pst 5 yrs 2yos turf/synth 31-60 layoff; off slow, contested pace 3w when behind heavy chalk; contender.

Polish Cowboy

17K yrlng; sire 14% 2yos; dam won route (35K, 0-1 at 2) with 2 wnrs/rnrs (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 routers); dam 1/2 G3 SW 2yo Mr. Sea Sanders (112K, 2-3 at 2, 2-20 route), G3 SP Delightful Bet (101K, 3-16 route), 2yo G2 SW sprinter Old Tascosa (393K, 3-9 at 2, 0-4 route), SW Lights On (216K, 0-3 at 2, 1-7 routes); barn 0-12 past 5 years 2yos sprint/route synth; dull long odds 10/5.

Race 4

Provocateur

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was winless from three starts, and she didn't make a turf start; winner from latest won next out at CD n 9/29 going 1m vs. N1X rivals with an 80 Beyer; it might be worth noting the presence of Napravnik aboard another in here.

Rare Penny

She's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 7 of 17 starts for 351k, including 4 of 12 turf starts for 245k, and this miss is a 1/2 to stakes placed Quick Delivery (3-13, 102k over turf); she didn't run poorly off of a layoff last time and she figures to appreciate going from post 11 to post two.

Bird County

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won once from six starts for 16k, and she didn't make a start over turf; winner from latest won next out at ElP on 8/10 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 79 Beyer and runner-up won next out at Ind on 8/19 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with an 80 Beyer.

Summer Flirt

Although there's a long layoff in play, have to respect what she showed in her first start over turf when last seen; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Cuando (7-22, 329k, including 4 of 13 turf starts for 232k) and multiple G1 winner Honey Ryder (13-32, $2.7 million over turf); this barn can strike with one off of a long layoff like this.

Bet On Kitten

Can't ignore the connections here and Hill has won with 45 of 139 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013; she gave a decent account of herself against a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing, but still prefer to lean toward others for the top spot.

Cat's Claw

She was coupled in the wagering with Ambitious in her career debut and that race might have been designed to set her up for this; she galloped out well past the winner in her debut and like to see Sheppard call upon Napravnik.

Bramley

She's looking the type that is going to hang around the maiden ranks for a while, but she has a strong turf pedigree, she's fast enough to run with these, and she appears to be well meant while getting a rider switch to Castellano.

Crab Key

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; she's shown a little something in her first two starts and she might be looking forward to getting over turf and having more distance to work with.

Beat to Quarters

This filly is by a top turf sire and she's eligible to be ready for a much sharper performance at second asking while going out for a barn that has been strong with their recent turf starters; not willing to count her out of it.

Auntie Martha

For the most part, her form routing over turf has been solid, and she's out of a G1 winning dam who won 10 of 17 turf starts for 961k; note that this 3-year-old is a May foal and that her most recent race after a layoff was her first start since January.

Tiz a Treat

She earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure the last time she was seen racing over turf but her overall form hasn't been strong enough to help give her a favorable look in this spot; prefer to look toward others.

Rosee Is Cozee

All three of her starts over turf have been fine performances, and of the horses in the main body of this race, she boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure; she might be ready to give a good account of herself while making just her second start as a 4-year-old.

Stella Cavallo

Her lack of early speed is a legitimate concern and she's probably going to need to see a complete pace meltdown if she's to have a chance at reeling these in through the lane; she needs to see a scratch from the main body of the race to draw in and she has the look of an outsider.

Renards Lapin

Half-sister to multiple group stakes winner overseas Lucky Story (4-9, 337k) has shown enough in her four turf starts to merit top contender status in this race if she draws in; the 73 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest effort is the best last race figure in this field.

Race 5

Divine Energy

Sire 15% 2yos; dam placed sprinting at 2 (14K, 0-1 route) with 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 routers); dam full G1 turf SW Sophisticat (443K, 1-8 at 2, 0-1 route); barn 3-14, $1.30 pst 5 yrs 2yo dirt/synth; pressed 3-ply pace 3 wide 9/14, but couldn't get by longshot; 10/14 KEE Clocker notes "good finish, length better than King Cyrus"; strong pace threat.

Ford's On Fire

80K RNA yrlng; sire 16% 2yos; dam G2 sprint SP (149K, 1-2 at 2, 0-4 route) with 2 wnrs/4 rnrs (0-4 with 2yos, 0-1 router); dam 1/2 G2 turf SW Pays to Dream (377K, 0-1 route), route SW Pumpkin Shell (131K, 1-5 at 2, 2-8 route); barn 5-23 (22%, $2.64 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (3-6 with 2yos); exits faster division MSW (runner-up won here 82 Beyer)

Sheriff Curly

55K yearling; sire 6-66 (9%) 2yo FTS; SW dam (160K, 1-3 at 2, 0-3 route) has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-1 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Aggadan (860K, 5-21 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW route; 9/20, 9/26 works match Rankhasprivileges (FTS - R3)

Harbor Bound

42K yrlng by 14% 2yo sire; dam won sprint (77K) with 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with router); 2nd dam multiple SW Barefoot Dyana (432K, 3-10 at 2, 8-29 route); barn 0-22 past 5 years 2yos synthetic; off slow 10/5, made solid 4w bid for 2nd; 10/10 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "was not asked for effort, in front of Contributor at the wire, went on out willingly"; respect.

Malibu Blues

1/2 multiple SP sprint Jacob's Run (205K) by 198-1065 (19%) 2yo sire; G3 SW dam (365K, 0-2 at 2, 1-5 route) with 4 winners from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with router); female family 2yo G2 sprint SW Mayanesian (277K); barn 3-10 (30%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic); none of the 4 next-out runners from the 9/13 heat finished better than fifth.

Fantastic Vow

1/2 G3 SP 2yo turf Fantastic Song (113K, won debut, 0-1 route), turf SP Magnificent Shirl (84K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 route); sire 11% 2yo FTS; dam turf SW (251K, 0-1 route) with 2 wnrs/2 rnrs (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 router); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Shakespeare ($1.2M); barn 3%, $0.57 pst 5 yrs synth; 10/6 KEE Clocker - "going well from gate, better than Not A Wallflower"

Dynamic Impact

125K yearling; sire 100-752 (13%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint SW (227K, 1-3 at 2); dam 1/2 G3 SP Little Cliff (202K, 2-4 at 2, 3-21 route), route SP Dynamical (115K, 0-1 at 2, 1-8 route); barn 5-15 (33%, $1.66 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt/synthetic (0-2 sprint/route); poor start, good wide move turn, raced greenly in stretch vs. good field CD; consider.

Signature Seven

1/2 sprint SP Disruption (56K, 0-3 at 2) by multiple G1 sprint SW (669K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 route, 3-24 with FTS 2yo); route winner (49K) has 1 wnr/3 rnrs (0-1 with 2yos); 2nd dam multiple G1 SW Dispute ($1.1M, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 7-14 route); barn 10%, $2.98 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth MSW route; 3 works match Royale Sky (FTS FRI. R5)>

Race 6

Channel Marker

Takes the next step up the class ladder after getting his neck down to score at Saratoga; expecting he'll be able to secure a good spot down inside from here and he clearly loves this trip; ran well off a freshening earlier this year and looms a huge repeat threat in this spot.

Rojo Verde

Took a big step forward to score from a pressing spot in his Arlington finale and now he'll try N2Xs in his local course debut; gray fires a good shot every time and that can help get him involved in the outcome here, but have to think a minor award proves his ceiling against these.

Googleado (ARG)

Speedster never looked back after making the lead in the Churchill slop and now he'll step up the class ladder for his surface debut; his sire gets just 6% winners from his first time turf runners and there's not much turf on the dam's side of his pedigree, but he should be gunning from the bell.

Strike the Note

He's another with early foot and he'll cut back a bit after holding second money over a tricky turf course at Kentucky Downs; gelding has displayed a stalking gear in the past and maybe he employs it with speed drawn to his immediate inside here; sophomore is one to consider.

Matar

Ran them down at a longer trip in his last at Kentucky Downs and now he'll make his course debut; pace in front of him should be honest and maybe his kick is intensified on the cut back to this distance; with a month to recover from his last and a couple of sharp recent breezes in tow he looms a threat in the lane.

Joe Can Gallop

Steps up for his return to the green after holding on to beat cheaper off the freshening on the local main track; number he earned breaking his maiden first time on the green at Saratoga plays out quite well in here and he is both versatile and lightly raced so a move forward wouldn't be surprise; contender.

Magical Season

Gelding has yet to get back to his sharp form earlier in the year since leaving here in the spring; maybe he's better with his return from the freshening behind him and getting off the rail can help in a field that looks to contain a solid clip up top; with a top pilot taking the call he can't be overlooked.

Ray's Away

Wide trip hurt him when breaking from the outside slot in that last out Churchill route but now he's back to a one turn trip at which he's run well; gelding has the tactical foot to sit close to the front runners early and maybe his last provided him with a little extra to offer in the lane here; price should be right.

Bellachino

Exits an ugly route try in the Indiana Downs mud and now he'll get back to the green for the second time in his career; recent numbers don't put this Indiana bred in the mix here and doubt the surface switch will help matters; looms a long price.

Divine Ambition

Sophomore offered some promise earlier in the year but has been sidelined for 5 months and now he'll show up on the green; he does have some early foot but his sire is 1 for 18 with his first time turfers and neither the winless dam nor her other foals to race ever tried the green.

Band of Joy

Ships in from Indiana Downs to try the green for the initial time after tiring when sent long over a wet track; colt has the speed to be involved from the bell, but there's not much surface pedigree on the dam's side though his sire has had some luck with his initial surface runners, getting 12% winners from them.

Tell All You Know

Outside drawn colt is also a first time turfer and his sire gets 9% winners with that type; dam was 0 for 1 on the green, but she did drop 2 surface winners including G2 SP, multiple SW and 211K earner Don'ttalktome; tough draw, but the price should be solid and that warrants him an exotics look.

Heywoods

AE hasn't been on the lawn in a long time and now he'll step up out of the claiming ranks to give the footing a shot again; maybe he moves forward second time back from the break, but he's got a lot of improving to do to step with some of these from out here; passing if he gets to go.

Race 7

Rope a Dope

Working like he will love the KEE synthetic surface; has not raced past 6.5F yet; Grade-2 sire at 9F on dirt did not race on a synthetic surface; dam won 1-of-2 races both at 6F on dirt; grass-debut win occurred from off the pace despite trouble but a lot was expected at under 3-1 odds then he produced the win picture.

Matuszak

Last-to-1st debut win when hammered to under 3-1 odds 1st-time out for a trainer not known to win with 1sters; super-repeat barn for a 27%-winning jockey-trainer combo; the synthetic surface like with many of these is a complete mystery; saves ground then makes 1 run.

Whyruawesome

Trying to remember his field-best Beyer from the 7F debut beating the show runner who graduated next out in an SA-MSW race with a 71 Beyer; was primed for this in a pair of G3 events he will appreciate the class relief today and is the one to beat.

King Cyrus

Working well off the Grade 1 disappointment when losing ground racing wide; has not raced past 7F yet; sire captured the G1 Wood Memorial at 9F on dirt; dam finished off the board in 2-Mile turf defeats; win rider stays a 36%-pilot for the barn at KEE; wish the Beyers were not so light heading into this.

Laddie Boy

Couple of 8th-place finishes on KEE synthetic are the issue including the debut loss vs. the winner who captured 123K and 466K stakes in England and France next out while the runner-up finisher Beyered 73 in a AP-G3 next-out victory set the pace in 2 dirt races and figures to try to take these a long way up top.

Notionofmine

2nd-Time Long is a good-win angle but would have to move forward in a big way to repeat off the IND-bred dirt score; the runner-up finisher from his debut Beyered 54 in a next-out IND-MSW win; working nicely off the 34-day layoff but for an 8%-fresh trainer since 2012.

Tashir

Big try on KEE synthetic 1st time on this surface a career-best Beyer; wheels right back in 1 week for this; won his debut over the show runner a next-out 31 Beyer DEL-30K-maiden claiming graduate; outran his odds in last and fits nicely vs. this kind off latest.

Kids Rule

Last-to-1st graduate on turf 23 days ago did not impress in the KEE-synthetic surface wotkout for this; the added distance is a plus and looked like he knew where the wire was in the unveiling; has plenty of upside but like many of these synthetic is the issue.

Race 8

Cash for Clunkers

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 11 starts for 45k, including 0-for-1 over turf; like to see the early speed that this G1 stakes placed mare brings with her, but this isn't a soft spot for her first turf test.

Preferential (GB)

From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, her latest race was clearly her best performance since arriving in America, and when seeing what she was doing racing overseas, that type of effort doesn't appear to be out of the norm for her; Juddmont-owned miss commands respect while going out for a top turf barn.

Janicellaine (IRE)

Grade 3 stakes placed mare has run a number of nice races over turf in her career and it's worth noting that she's making her first start for a barn that is known for being able to move horses forward; third place finisher from latest won next out at CD on 5/17 going 1m vs. 62k OPC's with a 90 Beyer.

Angel Terrace

She's a G3 winner over this turf course and she's run well in back-to-back starts since being placed over turf again; she finished behind today's rival Preferential in her latest outing, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this filly show up with a sharper run while getting back over the Keeneland turf; must consider.

I'm Your Luv

She deserves credit for being able to get the job done at Kentucky Downs in her latest start, but that was easily the sharpest performance of her career, and she needs to take a noticeable step forward over that performance to prove to be the one in this spot.

Valiant Girl (GB)

Have to respect the fact that this barn sees fit to sign this nicely bred miss up for this, but it would have been nice to have seen her show a little bit more in her latest outing, even if that was in a G1 against Laughing; looking toward others.

Sheppard's Pie

She's out of a G2 winning dam who won 7 of 24 starts for 281k, including 4 of 16 turf starts for 150k, and this filly has won three of her last four starts; however, she's never run a race that is anywhere near fast enough to suggest that she can be competitive in a spot like this; Pino has won with 17 of 66 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Kissable (IRE)

She's G1 stakes placed racing overseas and going to look for her to be ready to show up with one of her better performances today; feel that she ran even better than it looks on paper three starts back over this turf course, and between traffic trouble two back, and a slow early pace last time, things just haven't played out in her favor; viewing her as being a top contender.

Beijoca

Her complete lack of early speed is always a concern, but this miss is two-for-two racing over this turf course, and if she can regain the form that she displayed earlier in the year, she can make some noise in this spot.

Left a Message

Respect the fact that she hails from a strong turf barn, and her overall turf form hasn't been poor by any means, but she was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing, and not quite sure that her best effort is good enough to get the better of this field.

Race 9

Giacoslew

Stayed within range on a wide path last time out in a race where the early fractions were legit; needs a strong pace in order to turn back with effectiveness here; chances increase if the outside trio of runners engage in a lengthy duel.

Tyler T

Exits a personal best performance and draws a comfortable slot now; should be able to stay within striking distance and the numerical rise today is not that severe; can earn a share at a healthy price.

Scatman Blues

Unlucky gelding has a troubled post position history (compromised by the rail and a slow break 2 back, hurt by the extreme outside in the last assignment); local breeze only 6 days ago suggests he can turn things around suddenly.

Funnystori

Made up decent ground in a turf tune-up last month and had to overcome early trouble when doing so; might be able to launch a solid rally from midpack; seems worth some follow-up today with the switch to Borel.

Notaninja

Newcomer was sired by Alert who won 4 of 13 starts and 81K (his progeny are zero for 2 in debuts); the dam was without a victory in 3 attempts; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Gameday Spanking

Take a close looks at his only performance at this oval; he made a strong move to contention in that run but suffered through an extra-wide trip; can be a strong late factor here if the outside pacesetting crew does their job.

Donchalant

Beginner haihls from Shakespeare, a G1 turf runner who banked 1.29 million; his offspring have scored in 4 of 53 initial starts; the dam was solid indeed, a winner of 13 of 26 and 142K (all wins in dirt sprints); sib to 56K earner Soufriere.

Hero's Wager

Finished in the middle of the pack in his local debut, an improved effort; drops to a softer level now and will have to get into the race sooner; could round out a healthy exotic payoff in this wide-open event.

Vi's Villian

Stayed in contention until the final furlong of his Presque Isle effort last month; overall Beyer pattern comes up way short of the mark though and it is doubtful that a breakthrough race is at hand; cannot endorse as the one to key.

Captain Cook

Rested since the spring meet here where he disappointed after freefalling to the nickel level; the workout regimen during the last month, however, has shown some enthusiasm and he needs to be on or near a soft pace today.

Little Jimmy

Cutting back a bit in distance should help this colt as he moves way down the hierarchy; if not jammed up between runners in the opening strides, his chances increase; latest half-mile drill suggests he is at the ready.

Lake Brilliant

Outfinished by Tyler T recently but he did much more of the grueling pacesetting work that day; might be better off here with a change of tactics: relaxing off the 2 speedsters to his immediate left; not out of the question by any means.