Keeneland
Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 19, 2013
Race 1
| Boston Proper |
| May foal gets a chance to return to racing with straight 3-year-olds; he showed talent to defeat winners in his first attempt last out, and for the effort he earned what ranks as one of the field's best last-race Beyer Figures; ran well fresh that afternoon, and again is a fresh horse into this race; the question is Polytrack. |
| Baffoonery |
| He's the most accomplished synthetic-track horse in the field, with a 3-for-7 record over such surfaces; this will be his first start over the main track at Kee, and note he has had a chance to work over the local strip; defeated fellow 3-year-olds last out when just up, and for his surface prowess he is a contender. |
| Exploring |
| He ran a big race off the bench last out, when he conquered a one-turn mile in his first start since January; for the effort, he earned a career-best Beyer Figure; like that he has had a nice amount of time since the win, and also note he has had success over a synthetic track in the past; if there is one concern, it's that the six furlongs might be less than optimum for him; however, the class move he makes might trump the trip; win candidate. |
| Tap and Trade |
| He's gearing back up for a new campaign as this will be his first start since March; does give up recency to all of these, but like that he tends to run well fresh and that barn excels with comebackers; he's also spotted to make an impact; a concern would be that he does not have experience over a synthetic track; one to preview in the paddock. |
| Belief System |
| June foal was favored at a similar level last out at CD and just missed by a neck; for the effort, which came against older horses, he earned what ranks as this field's best career Beyer Figure; like that he gets a shot with straight 3-year-olds, that he has gradually shortened up in distance, and that he has the Ramsey factor; the primary question seems to be whether or not he will handle Polytrack; choice. |
| Fiddler Blue |
| Barn changes things up and sends this one back to the main track and shortens him up in distance; note his maiden win came in a main track sprint, and while the score was on dirt, he also has experience over a synthetic track; has the benefit of getting back in a straight 3-year-old spot, and has also been plying his trade against steeper; contender. |
Race 3
| Affair Dabbler |
| No wins in over a year but she's faced nothing but stakes company since she won an $80K optonal race on the turf at Arlington and three of her last four starts have been in Grade 3's; she's been off since Feb. and the barn has won with 2 of the last 15 starters returnign from a 180-day layoff or more; she'll appreciate the easier company but it's been a while since she ran on anything other than turf; tough call. |
| Donna's Fly Girl |
| She won two straight at Ellis Park before breaking poorly in her latest at Churchill; she also appeared to be a bit rank early so it wasn't surprising she faded; lone 3-year-old will be trying Poly for the first time but both siblings won on synthetic tracks at Golden Gate and Hollywood so she should be okay on it; nonetheless, others look more attractive. |
| Drama Drama |
| No wins here but she has performed well over this surface and she is coming off a solid effort at this level going 7 furlongs; she has won going this distance on turf so the added distance shouldn't be an issue; her lack of speed in a race they probably won't be going fast early is the main concern; nonetheless, she looks like a major player. |
| Noble Charlotte |
| She hasn't been worse than second in four tries over this surface but she hasn't fired in her two races since she came back from a layoff; she had a nice work here Sunday so maybe she's ready for a big effort in the third start of her current form cycle; she's just been to dull in her last two races to support right now, however. |
| Lotta Lovin |
| No surprise she couldn't keep up to multiple Grade 1 winner Groupie Doll in her latest at Presque Isle Downs but it was a pretty good effort and two horses came out of the race to win their next starts here including Judy's Beauty who upset Groupie Doll in the Grade 2 TCA; not a lot of other speed in this field and she is going to love the shape of the race; the pick. |
| Nashindy |
| Undefeated on Tapeta at Presque Isle so she shouldn't mind the move to Poly following a decent effort in her first try on turf; lightly-raced 4-year-old is out of a Grade 3 winner that earned $438K so she has a right to improve; she finished in front of Drama Drama in her race at Ky Downs and she may have tipped her hand when she worked five furlongs in :58.60 seconds here Oct. 7; contender. |
| Cathy's Crunches |
| Ships in from California where she won a Cal-bred stakes at Del Mar last year so we know she's comfortable on Poly; she wasn't much of a factor in her last two starts, though, including the stakes she won last year and it's been over a year since she won a race; horse that won her latest finished third in a $50K claimer in her previous race at Del Mar; respect anything coming out of this barn but others look more attractive. |
Race 5
| Kay War |
| Presque Isle invader turns back today after failing as the 7 to 5 favorite going long; she spots important experience at this distance and may rally after the fact considering this difficult post; will offer a better price on the board today. |
| Afleet Lexi |
| This mare did not seem to care for the slop or the 2-turn assignment at Charles Town; should fare much better at this straightaway assignment and can be one of the major place players in this event. |
| Get Runnin' |
| She has a pair of seconds to her credit when negotiating this course previously; was in dire need of the last effort when pressing a decent pace in the early stages; can turn back with some effectiveness here. |
| Finest Crystal |
| Confirmed closer ran into an above average group at Indiana and could not factor; both of her lifetime victories were over the turf and this could be a prep in that direction; prior efforts have seven-eighths have been disappointing. |
| Sibonet |
| Her best Beyer by far was achieved at seven-eighths and she can be forgiven the last defeat when breaking slowest from a difficult outpost; worth some follow-up today because the odds should be very inviting. |
| Fantasy Bay |
| Gets rid of the blinkers and may be able to rate better as a result; although she does not have the strongest comparative Beyers, note the improved workout here of a week ago; perhaps that can enable her to improve suddenly. |
| Ambitoness |
| Veteran runner has earned the bulk of her bankroll on the grass but has scored at this oval previously; raced evenly in her comeback race last month, an event where her chances were compromised because of the soft early fractions; playable. |
| Jamraa |
| Earned a personal best in the latest placing around 2 turns and she might have been best that day if not for a stumbling beginning; important factor: she returns to the handling of Spieth who has been aboard for most of this mare's victories. |
| Brandys Secret |
| Outstanding lifetime batting average for this lady who also has a perfect record over the course; she should be the primary pacesetter today (but has also rated to victory in the past); from an expert trainer, she is clearly the one to beat here. |
| Rusticana |
| Nice wake-up at Mountaineer last month when drawing clear on a wide path; last appearance at this oval was a fair second but she has improved several levels since then; in top form now, she may be able to make first run on Brandys Secret. |
Race 6
| Limerick Lady |
| Amazing performance last month when re-rallying for the place; did break maiden at today's distance so perhaps the cutback will work in her favor; turned in a fine breeze 8 days ago and should be an immediate presence. |
| Janis's Joy |
| Quite a score recently when holding on for dear life at huge odds; showed versatility when racing over the grass previously but might find herself sandwiched between runners in opening stages; very difficult call today. |
| Clear Code |
| Owns a reliable first gear but tries this surface for the first time; her sire won a G3 and 183 but had no success on the lawn (offspring of Omega Code have scored in 7 out of 89 grass debuts); the dam won 9 of 35 and 46K; among the winning siblings is 11K earner Magic Dust. |
| Spring Formal |
| Exits a useful comeback race at Arlington; closed with a rush to score 2 back on the grass and has a ton of gate speed to her left today, an excellent tactical advantage; should be a major late factor. |
| Gentle One |
| Reliable rallier makes her belated grass debut; her sire was unraced and progeny of Sonic Blue are zero for 2 as far as winning their first turf test; the dam won 3 of 19 and 96K; among the winning siblings is 148K earner Gentle One. |
| Sweet Nkosi |
| Her only try on the grass was in a route so perhaps that defeat can be discounted; she has shown decent prompting ability and ran into an a solid group in the last venture; can prove to be the right value play in this wide-open affair. |
| Sahms Song |
| Tenacious on the front end, but there are plenty of pure speed types who draw ideal inside slots this afternoon; has run well off freshenings in the past and has obviously found a new home on the turf; cannot be discounted. |
| Toto Cor |
| Yet another pure pacesetter to consider despite having no experience on the grass; her sire won a G2 stakes and 479K including a pair of wins over the turf (progeny of Exchange Rate have won 12 percent of their grass attempts); the dam won 175K; sib to 114K earner Why West. |
| Gator Zone |
| Was narrowly outfinished by Limerick Lady last time out but she was in need of that venture and was burdened with a tough post position; should be tighter for this assignment and a non-firm course would probably work in her favor. |
| Queen Negwer |
| Toss the race at a mile; she receives excellent race flow today with so many runners intent on the lead; should receive a red-hot pace as she did in the victory 4 starts back (under this same pilot); latest blowout was encouraging as well. |
| Crookedpathtoglory |
| Unleashed a strong middle move when losing narrowly to some of these same foes last month but is hurt by this extreme post today; should receive a much swifter tempo now and that can help her turn the tables; legitimate contender. |
Race 7
| Azha |
| Sire 15% 2yos; sprint SW dam (190K, 1-2 at 2) has 4 wnrs/6 rnrs (0-3 with 2yos, 3-6 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Destiny Dance (96K), SW Aurora (285K, 3-6 sprint), 2yo SW Yamanin Paradise (1.4M, Japan); barn 0-18 past 5 years 2yos synthetic; missed break both outs; very green 10/5 as rank on lead before tiring; too early to give up on this pedigree; can improve here. |
| Lady Marian |
| Sire 14% 2yo FTS; dam won route (31K, 0-2 sprint) with 1 wnr/1 rnr (1-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 multiple G3 route SW Newfoundland (677K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint), 2yo G1 sprint SW Strong Mandate (232K); barn 11%, $2.30 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth MSW sprint; 10/5 work match Trytoloveagain (10th FTS MSW turf 37 Beyer KD 9/25) |
| Lelanda |
| 390K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 G2 route SP News Pending (129K, 1-5 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 13% 2yo sire; turf winner (56K, 0-1 sprint) has 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 sprint); dam 1/2 G2 sprint SW Adore the Gold (239K, 3-4 at 2); barn 36%, $2.42 pst 5 yrs dirt/synth (1-2 with 2yos); seemed green turn, then rallied belatedly vs. weak field; local works reportedly sharp. |
| Altagracia |
| Sire 100-648 (15%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo sprint-placed dam (17K, 0-3 at 2, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 sprint SP Glickman (95K, 2-8 sprint), 2yo sprint SP Impossible Mary (46K, 1-2 at 2, 1-2 sprint); barn 4-22 (18%, $1.56 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (1-5 with 2yos); off slow then bit green on turn before even finish outside; exotics factor. |
| Tiz Windy |
| Sire 100-752 (13%) 2yos; 1st starter from route winner (119K, 0-3 at 2, 0-9 sprint); 2nd dam SW Unbridled Wind (135K, 0-3 at 2, 1-5 sprint); barn 0-15 past 5 years dirt/synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); useful debut effort as far back behind moderate pace before rallying belatedly in the stretch; expecting a solid showing. |
| Darby Doll |
| 27K RNA yrlng; full sprint SW D'honorable One (100K, 1-3 at 2) by 14% 2yo sire; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); dam full multiple G2 route SP Pat N Jac (257K, 2-5 at 2, 4-19 sprint); barn 18-171 (11%, $1.43 ROI) past 5 years synthetic (0-5 with 2yos); 5th-finisher 9/17 won Ohio-bred stake 54 Beyer 10/12; must do more. |
| Auriferous |
| 150K yearling, 150K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 14-115 (12%) 2yo FTS; G3 SW dam (347K, 1-3 at 2, 2-6 sprint) has 4 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, won debut, 3-4 with sprinters); female family G1 turf SW Ivyanna (Italy); barn 0-7 past 5 years synthetic North America. |
| Party Now |
| 1/2 multiple G3 SW Criminologist (554K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint), G2 turf SW Rescue Squad (218K, 1-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 7% 2yo FTS sire; G3 SP dam (258K, 0-2 at 2, 0-4 sprint) has 4 wnrs/7 rnrs (1-6 with 2yos, won debut, 0-6 sprinters); dam full multiple G3 SP Manoa (262K, 0-5 sprint); barn 20%, $1.64 past 5 years synth (1-5 with 2yos, 1st 2yo debuter). |
| Poppy's Dream |
| Sire 11% 2yo FTS; unplaced dam has 1 wnnr/1 rnr (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Sacred Song (England), multiple G2 turf SW Strut the Stage ($1.5M, 1-2 at 2, won debut); barn 8%, $0.94 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW synth sprint; 10/14 KEE Clocker notes he was outworked by Scatman Blues |
| Emma Lushka |
| Sire 9-47 (19%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo sprint winner (24K, 1-3 at 2, 1-3 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple sprint SP Matter of Law (149K, 1-7 at 2, 2-11 sprint); barn 1-33 (3%, $0.40 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (1-7 second-out); must improve. |
| Lemon de Oro |
| 65K RNA yrlng; sire 13% 2yo; dam placed sprint (36K) with 1 wnr/2 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Chelsey Flower (568K, 2-5 at 2, 0-2 sprint); barn 4-16, $1.38 pst 5 yrs 2yo turf/synth; made lead after 5F 9/13, but tired badly; 10/12 KEE Clocker notes "strong head up effort with Ring Weekend and was shade better"; capable with Lasix. |
| Easy Chair |
| 1/2 G3 turf SW Golden Century (76K, 1-1 at 2), multiple sprint SW Maple Forest (275K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 5-13 sprint) by 7% 2yo FTS sire; 2yo sprint SW dam (170K, won debut) has 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (2-3 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 1-2 sprinters); barn 27%, $1.08 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW synth sprint; 10/13 KEE Clocker noted he was outworked by Baby Titan; respect. |
Race 8
| Signature Event |
| It's difficult to ignore his poor recent form, but if he can perform the way he did over this turf course at this time last year, he can have a say in the outcome; that said, others entice more. |
| Happy Fella |
| He's been a consistent perfomer and he belongs with competition of this caliber, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be at today's 1 1/2m distance; his lack of early speed in recent starts is a concern in this potentially paceless race. |
| River Lemon |
| Stakes placed veteran seems to be quite content to settle for a minor award but he's a consistent performer who is clearly capable of making some noise in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at Haw on 10/11 going 1 1/16m vs. alw. rivals with an 87 Beyer. |
| One Golden Road |
| Connections alone make this one tough to ignore, and in a race that appears to be paceless, this gelding might be able to grab the early advantage and set a very slow early tempo; not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction. |
| Religious Ed |
| Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this might prove to be a tough step up in class for him after being claimed for 10k from his latest start. |
| Paroled |
| He's clearly fast enough to run with these, but it is of some concern when seeing that he's won just once from 19 starts with a combined eight 2nd and 3rd place finishes, and this will be his first start beyond 1 1/8m; viewing him as a contender, but he does have some knocks against him. |
| Sporting Holiday |
| His one start over this turf course was a solid performance and his current connections must have liked what they saw from him previously to reclaim him for 25k from his latest outing; he's another who is unproven at the distance, but don't feel that he's out of the question. |
| Global Express |
| His three turf starts have been strong enough performances to suggest that he can be tough to tackle in this spot, and this relatively lightly raced 3-year-old has already shown us that marathon distances over turf aren't a problem for him; Woodbine shipper commands respect as a top contender. |
| Regal Pal |
| He's had plenty of chances to show us what he can do, including five turf starts, and he's yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that he can get the job done at this level of competition; strictly an outsider. |