Keeneland
Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 17, 2013
Race 1
| New Found King |
| Got really good on turf after the short layoff; now heads back to KEE synthetic where his 2 other races here were way off his best form; the trainer is 2-for-6 going turf-to-synthetic since 2012 while reuniting with the 2-back near-miss rider; has something to prove traveling on today's surface. |
| Tiu |
| Despite trouble posted a field-best Beyer speed figure on KEE synthetic at shorter when middle moving; it clearly was a good sign that the number came back so strongly especially with 1st blinkers; a cleaner trip can help the cause but will need to show more of a sustained run/stamina to win going 9F. |
| Net Profit |
| 2 -dirt bullet workouts for this adding blinkers for career-race 2 which is often an improvement angle; wide trip in the turf debut where outrun throughout; takes the MSW-to-maiden claiming class drop some call this the biggest in racing. |
| Teleconference |
| Has been screaming out for more distance in recent-dirt races and gets it here; clearly the synthetic surface is a major concern noting the trainer is winless since at least 2012 on this type of oval; most-recent CD dirt workout was not very enticing. |
| Bare Your Heart |
| Has been working like he is ready to fire a big race; 47 days since finishing 2nd best in his 1st-route test; 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; the runner-up from his debut graduated next out in an AP-MSW event with a 66 Beyer. |
| Tapit Quick |
| MSW-to-maiden claiming has been known as the biggest class drop in racing but the trainer yields just 6% winners since 2012 with this angle; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 74 in a next-out BEL-MSW score; the debut show finisher posted a 79 speed figure in his next-out IND-MSW diploma earner. |
| Aripeka |
| Sire only raced on turf and his longest win was at 7F; one of the dam's win was at 1 Mile on turf; has been working forwardly on dirt for the 1st-synthetic-surface test noting some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out. |
| El Zohan |
| 53 days since bet hard favored in the career-debut defeat where he was screaming out for more distance and gets it here; has been working on synthetic like he will love it while the new rider yields 26% winners for the trainer since 2012; big distance test today noting his sire was a Grade 1-SW on dirt at 1 Mile; he is out of an unraced dam. |
Race 2
| Dreams Cut Short |
| Rallied to win his second start back from a layoff in his latest at Presque Isle Downs and he's had three solid works here since; horse he easily handled the last time he ran and won a key race here won a $35K optional race on the turf at Saratoga in his next start; he's sharp right now and we know he likes the surface; respect. |
| Prado Dash |
| Just two starts last year and only one this year is an obvious concern; he did run well over this track both of his starts here, the last one a second in a key race, and the past five years Wilkes is a respectable 16% with horses making their second start back; nonetheless, we're still going to wait and see which direction he's headed in. |
| Night Party |
| Grade 2 placed 5-year-old wants to be involved early and he was pretty much done when he didn't break that sharply leaving from the rail in his latest; first time in a straight claiming race so he'll appreciate the easier company but front wraps were added two back and that was a pretty disappointing effort in his first start back; it's a good distance for him but the barn hasn't won with the last 10 that were runnng for a tag for the first time; prefer others. |
| Treasured Kitten |
| He could have been claimed for $12.5K in June but he's improved substantially since then and he is coming off a win where he earned his career-best Beyer Speed fFigure; goes for a new barn and Caros has a 27% strike rate with new shooters; he didn't beat any stars in his latest win but at least he's headed in the right direction and we can't say that about some of the ones he is facing; consider for the exotics. |
| Inflation Target |
| He faded badly after prompting the pace against $25K conditional claimers in his latest at Belmont but he was claimed out of the race by Maker who the past five years has a 32% strike rate with claimed horses returning between 61-180 days; horse that won his race two back won his next start at Saratoga and earned a 105 Beyer; like the way his sharp trainer shows a lot of confidence by doubling his price; contender. |
| Achaemenes |
| Only two starts this year but at least he won his first outing with a decent Beyer and looking at Matthews strong stats in the second off a layoff and turf to synthetics we're willing to forgive his fade job in his latest; the horse that finished second was coming off four straight wins including his last two in $50K claimers; this guy fits here and could be dangerous with a race under his belt; playable. |
| Southern Parkway |
| Just two wins in his 21-race career isn't encouraging but he should appreciate the easier company while running in a straight claiming race for the first time; the bad news is the past five years Arnold is 1/39 with horses with horses running for a tag the first time; this will also be his first try on Poly so we're going to just watch and see how he handles it. |
| Small Town Talk |
| He hasn't won in over a year but he was running in graded races in four of his last six starts; he dropped to this level in his latest and ran a solid race to finish third and the horse that finished second came back to win an allowance race at Mountaineer with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure; the past five years Simon has an 11 percent strike rate with horses running over a synthetic surface the first time; contender. |
| Photo Shoot |
| He'll apprecate the easier company after running against some tough ones in the $250K Presque Isle Mile; the winner won a Grade 3 at Arlington in July and went into the race off a win in a stakes race on the turf at Saratoga; not a bad effort in his previous race and he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle; he earned his career-best Beyer Speed over this surface and he has a solid record at the distance; the pick in a wide-open race. |
Race 4
| Monastic |
| This gelding has a good deal of quality to his pedigree and he appears to be on top of his game entering this race; his lack of recent winning form is a concern, but he has to be respected as a contender. |
| Motor City |
| Grade 3 winner hasn't been in good form lately and his one start over turf wasn't an encouraging performance; not going to be surprised if he's part of the early pace picture but others figure to have more to offer through the lane. |
| Kalamos |
| Feel that this is a favorable spot for this colt to make his first start in America and his first start since August 2012; he's out of a multiple group stakes placed dam who won 4 of 10 starts for 118k, and not only do his recent workouts look solid, but this barn is very capable of having one ready to fire off of a long layoff like this. |
| Irish Sea |
| He hasn't run a bad race to date and his connections have to be happy with what he's shown in his two most recent races after needing a lot of time off; Bridgmohan has won with 19 of 67 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013. |
| Shoot the Loop |
| His lack of early speed is always a concern and his best effort doesn't appear to be quite up to the level of the top contenders in this spot; he looks like more of an outsider. |
| Saturday Launch |
| He was upset minded off of a layoff in his latest start and he came up just a little bit short, and it looks like that level of performance can get him into the mix in this spot; he gave a solid account of himself in his only start over the Keeneland turf. |
| Easy Crossing |
| Multiple stakes placed colt has a strong pedigree for turf and he's proven that he's capable of putting together a decent run on his best day; he was beaten by today's rival Saturday Launch in his latest start, but that wasn't one of his better performances. |
| Overwhelming |
| He's another in here looking to bounce back from a sub par performance and it's interesting to see McGaughey reach out to Napravnik for this; he owns fine positional speed and figures to sit a comfortable trip just off the pace. |
| State Flag |
| Ramsey/Maker production is tough to ignore in this spot and he's been in good form since being claimed by these connections; Garcia has won with 21 of 83 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2013 |
Race 5
| Diva Meg |
| Sire 15% 2yo FTS; dam SP turf (53K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint) with 1 wnr/1 rnr (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 multiple SW R. Baggio (314K, 1-3 at 2, 2-14 sprint), multiple G3 SW Elusive Diva (484K, 2-6 sprint); barn 4-19, $1.59 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth MSW sprint; 8/14 work match Miss Arrangement (1st FTS MSW poly 74 Beyer KEE 10/12); interesting. |
| One Hot Romance |
| 35K weanling, 27K yearling; sire 40-332 (12%) 2yos; 1st starter from unraced dam; 2nd dam sprint SW Country Romance (157K, 4-9 sprint); barn 1-8 (13%, $3.35 ROI) past 5 years turf/synthetic (all older runners); not much in the debut against Zip On, who set a quick pace in the G3 Jessamine on 10/9 before fading to 6th (64 Beyer). |
| Fact File |
| Sire 12% 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 wnr/1 rnr (1-1 sprinter); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Chester House ($1.9M, 1-2 at 2, won debut), G1 SW Honest Lady (894K, 1-1 at 2, 5-10 sprint), G1 turf SW Chiselling (410K), multiple G1 route SW Empire Maker ($1.9M, 1-2 at 2, won debut); barn 0-13 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth; 10/14 work match Dobra Historia (58 polytrack Beyer) |
| Jerry Love |
| Full multiple G3 SW Akronism (516K, 2-5 at 2, 8-18 sprints); 1/2 SP 2yo Jerry's Fever (86K, 3-19 sprint) by 16% 2yo sire; dam won turf (40K, 0-2 at 2) with 6 wnrs/9 rnrs (3-5 with 2yos, 4-9 sprinter); barn 15%, $1.83 pst 5 yrs 2yo synth MSW sprint; broke in, but settled in midpack, came 4w turning for home, but was outfinished by odds-on chalk; contender. |
| Pretty Syrie |
| 110K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 multiple sprint SP Indian Camp (151K, 1-5 at 2) by 22% 2yo FTS sire; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) has 6 wnrs/6 rnrs (2-5 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 4-6 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 SW 2yo Greater Good (546K, 2-6 sprint), multiple G1 SW Pure Clan ($1.9M, 4-4 at 2); barn 15%, $1.89 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW synth sprint. |
| Rimini Rose |
| Full G1 route SP Atigun (499K, 1-5 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 1-28 (4%) 2yo FTS sire; dam placed route (7K) with 3 wnrs/4 rnrs (2-3 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters); 2nd dam G3 route SW Evangelical (253K, 0-2 at 2, 0-6 sprint); barn 7-46 (15%, $1.89 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/20 work matches Lady Doris (1st FTS MSW dirt 60 Beyer DEL 9/30). |
| Perfect La Comete |
| 1/2 multiple G2 sprint SW Munnings (742K, 1-4 at 2), multiple sprint SW Munnings Sister (248K, 1-3 at 2) by 8% 2yo sire; unraced dam has 3 wnrs/7 rnrs (2-5 with 2yos, 3-7 sprinter); dam 1/2 G2 SW Lasting Approval (510K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint), G1 SW Icon Project (660K); barn 10%, $0.41 pst 5 yrs 2yo dirt/synth; top 4 on 9/1 returned to run off board (63 Beyer top) |
| Queen Daenerys |
| 110K wnlng, 190K yrlng; 1/2 G1 route SW Dreams Gallore (588K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 2-4 sprint), G3 route SW Absent Friend (369K, 0-4 sprint) by 12% 2yo FTS; dam won route (75K) with 5 wnrs/8 rnrs (3-4 with 2yos, 1 FTS wnr, 2-4 sprntr); barn 14%, $2.96 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth MSW sprint; works look good; may want more ground, but expecting solid effort. |
| V V Goodnight |
| 1/2 route SW Forest Princess (302K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint), G3 SW Gleam of Hope (466K, 3-6 at 2, 1-3 sprint) by 13% 2yo sire; dam won route (16K, 0-3 at 2, 0-3 sprint) with 6 wnrs/9 rnrs (1-5 with 2yos, 2-7 sprint); dam 1/2 G2 SP 2yo Darien Deacon (57K, 2-4 sprint), SW Skytrial (308K, 1-3 at 2); barn 2-4, $10.40 pst 5 yrs 2nd-out 2yo dirt/synth; faced 3 next-out grads. |
| Ireland |
| Full G1 2yo sprint SW Dublin (438K); 1/2 G2 SP sprinter Mike's Classic (328K, 0-2 at 2) by 10% 2yo sire; dam G1 sprint SW (716K) with 9 wnrs/12 rnrs (3-8 with 2yos, 7-12 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 Missy's Mirage (838K, 2-4 at 2, 12-24 sprint); barn 0-10 pst 5 yrs 2yo turf-synth; chased quality filly in debut and faced 4 next-out winners 8/21; vet scratch 10/6. |
Race 6
| Cup of Joy |
| Tries better in his local return after getting his nose down to score on the Ellis Park lawn; gelding doesn't have a lot of early foot so the move to the fence could pose him some trouble; have to side against the repeat today. |
| Comes the Dream |
| Cuts back after a solid 12 panel score at Kentucky Downs last month; gelding ran big for second money here in the spring and though that one came at 9.5 panels he appears to be handy enough to handle the trip while likely to get an honest clip in front of him; can get in the mix here. |
| Exultant |
| Brings speed to the table while making his first start over the local sod; he draws towards the inside here so expect he'll again be involved in the pace and he has been on the improve from a figure standpoint but he'll have another panel to deal with here; don't think he'll be around to prove a serious threat at the finish against this bunch. |
| Frac Daddy |
| G1 SP dirt router beat older allowance runners first time on the lawn at Saratoga and was then aimed high while making a quick return in the sophomore stake there; maybe he'll fit better with these and he has been working lights out of late for his return from the freshening; contender. |
| Aldous Snow |
| Ships back in from Canada where he was better on synthetic footing this summer; didn't prove a threat the last time he stepped on the local sod and will have to prove himself over it at this level; prefer to side with others on the win end. |
| Fear the Kitten |
| Stakes placed sophomore has failed to hit the board in any of her 3 surface spins which have come in his last 3 starts; he'll get yet another new pilot for this and while he has a touch of class to him he spots these a lot of surface experience and success. |
| Ground Transport |
| Lghtly raced colt makes his surface debut while returning from another freshening, this time off a weak spin against ungraded peers in a one turn Arlington stake; worked well on the local main track last week for this and his sire does gets 14% winners from his initial turf starters; dam dropped 3 surface winners including 9 time winner and 188K earner Dynamalt. |
| Quickhutch |
| Gray has only run 3 times and he's won 2 of those starts; he'll enter this fresh for a barn that is profitable with this type and he's worked ok for late for his return to the races; these are better than he's been facing but it wouldn't be a surprise if he had move forward in him and the price should be right. |
| Tahoe Lake (BRZ) |
| Outside drawn gelding adds the hood for his first start since Saratoga where he was in a bit over his head in that G1 turf marathon; 7 year old hasn't won in quite a long time, but he loves the local sod and is G2 SP over it so maybe the return helps perk him up some; trip may be a little short for his best, but expect he'll be coming hard late. |
Race 7
| Moshaagib |
| 55 days since a career-low Beyer speed figure a massive departure from the 2-back victory a career-best number; the show and 6th-place finishers from last posted 90-84 Beyers in next-out AP alw. and optional-claiming wins; defeated the 2-back runner-up who graduated next out with an 80 Beyer while the show runner 3-back took an AP-MSW event next out with a 92; hopes to stalk a speed duel while saving ground. |
| Chinchilla Day |
| Last win was right on the lead but has Mean Marine to deal with from the gate along with several stalkers; exits a career-low Beyer but in a race with 4 next-out winners; the victor, 4th, 5th and 9th-place finishers from last Beyered 90-87-84-72 in GP-IND-optional claimers, ELP alw.and WO-40K-claiming victories. |
| Hard Aces |
| Figures to work out an ideal trip stalking the inside speed; ran well twice in KEE losses on today's surface; the runner-up, 4th and 8th-place finishers from Beyered 89-88-73 in next-out CD alw. and IND-14K-claiming wins; defeated the 2-back show runner who captured the G3-Ohio Derby next out at TDN with an 82 Beyer; the 3-back show runner took his next 2 races including a 103 Beyer in a SAR-optional claiming score. |
| Anthem |
| 1st time ever on a synthetic today for a 1-for-17 trainer since 2012 on that type of surface; that is the main issue for this; beat the 4-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 66 in a next-out IND-claiming victory; hasn't run a bad race since March but has to pass the class/surface test. |
| Mean Marine |
| Lone win occurred right on the lead but did not see the big gate speed in recent losses; has never raced on synthetic for a trainer 0-for the last-8 on this type of surface; the 3-back winner captured his next 2 races both IND-optional claimers with 89-86 Beyers. |
| Vindication Now |
| 77 days since not showing his best form on turf; makes his 1st-synthetic surface attempt today for a 6%-winning fresh trainer since 2012; the 2-back turf win is a career-best Beyer beating Madris who Beyered 78 in his next-out SAR-20K-claiming victory; posted steady workouts for a 1-for-17 synthetic trainer since 2012; will be taking a wait and see approach. |
| True Bee |
| Winless in 21 races since January, 2011, in a 5K claimer in a 5.5F TP-synthetic surface event; in that victory he rallied from 5th but was sent to the front in latest with a very-dull effort attached; been best racing at distances much shorter than today's. |
| Autobahn Legend |
| Great sign that his 1st ever synthetic-surface start was the maiden breaker; the 2-back winner repeated in a KEE alw. with an 81 Beyer; the debut show runner won his next 2 races with 84-78 Beyers taking GP-MSW and WO alw. events; has been working forwardly for his 24%-winning synthetic trainer since 2012; major-class test here but see plenty of upside on this lightly-raced competitor. |
| Eriugena (IRE) |
| Back to a synthetic surface where his lone race on this type of oval represents the 2nd-lowest Beyer of his career; has plenty to prove over the track; have mixed reviews off the 3-back claim; the 4-back winner repeated in a DEL alw. with a 73 Beyer. |
| Bogart |
| 1-for-1 on a synthetic surface while 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 94 in his next-out BEL-MSW graduation; working in spectacular fashion for this; normally seeing 4 different riders in as many races is not a good win angle but the new pilot yields 30% winners for the trainer since 2012. |
| Pick of the Litter |
| Working sharply off the 54-day absence; huge 3-back race race the only time racing on a synthetic surface when checking in right behind a next-out AP-Grade 3 SW who posted an 89 Beyer; the 2-back runner-up finisher captured the G2 Indiana Derby next out with a 99 speed figure; the Florida Derby winner Orb Beyered 104 in his next-out Kentucky Derby triumph. |
Race 8
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