Keeneland: Closer Looks for October 16, 2013
Race 1
| Flashy Note |
| 1K RNA wnlng, 9.5K RNA yrlng, 17K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.4; 1/2 multiple SW Effie Trinket (312K, 2-4 at 2, won debut, 2-3 sprint) by 7% 2yo FTS sire; sprint winner (15K, 0-4 at 2, 1-5 sprint) has 3 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, won debut, 3-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW 2yo Spectacular Cat (218K, 3-6 at 2, 5-42 sprint); barn 0-6 past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic. |
| Estuary |
| 13K yrlng; 1/2 SP Silver Menace (118K, 2-2 at 2, 3-8 sprint); sire 17% 2yo FTS; dam placed sprinting (0-1 at 2) with 1 wnr/2 rnrs (1-1 with 2yos, won debut, 1-2 sprint); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprint Imperial Zip (140K), 2yo SW sprint Vintage Tough (79K); barn 1-7, $2.97 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth; 9/26 KEE; Clocker notes she went with Babes Ruler (56 Beyer 10/10); not out of it. |
| Legomyborrego |
| 7K yrlng, 15K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 12% 2yos; dam placed sprinting (6K, 0-4 at 2) with 1 wnr/2 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 route SW More Chocolate (367K); barn 3-13, $2.47 past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; hung out 3-4 wide on the backstretch 9/22, she tried hard in the stretch and just missed second behind an odds-on winner; factor. |
| Bourbon Beauty |
| Sire 9-79 (11%) 2yos; winning dam (63K, 0-1 at 2, 3-35 sprint) has 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters); female family multiple SW Playgoer (106K); barn 1-9 (11%, $1.75 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; showed speed in a solid race that produced next-out 71-Beyer graduate Too Cool; pace factor must improve. |
| Borrowed Freedom |
| 1K RNA yrlng; sire 13% 2yos; sprint winner (56K) has 1 wnr/2 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); barn 3-5 (60%, $9.36 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; although the pace last time was very fast, one of the pressers, favored Tishomingo went on to win without much fuss; runner-up returned to finish 3rd at odds-on with 28 Beyer; expect speed, but needs Beyer boost. |
| Fancy Flier |
| 12K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 13-91 (14%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from sprint-placed dam (5K, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 G2 sprint SW Fire Slam (687K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 5-12 sprint); barn 1-9 (11%, $0.64 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic; works look solid; interesting. |
| Siren's Secret |
| Sire 16% 2yos; SP sprint dam (111K) has 1 wnr/2 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Ocean Mistery (88K, 2-12 at 2, 5-43 sprint); barn 6-16, $3.45 pst 5 yrs 2nd-time 2yo adding Lasix synth sprint; well-beaten and 4th-finisher returned to run 2nd (47 Beyer) in MSW at FL; 10/9 KEE Clocker notes she was outworked by U S Rockette; leaning elsewhere. |
| Ahuh |
| Sire 7% 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 multiple SP Bada Bam Bada Boom (387K, 3-16 sprint); barn 0-3 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS synth; one of the horses racing under Schu's name while Gorder is suspended; 9/20 work match Moon Angel (1st FTS MSW poly 68 Beyer 10/6 KEE); 10/4, 10/11 works match Bella Natalie (71 turf Beyer); interesting. |
| Go to Work |
| 30K shrt yrlng, 70K RNA yrlng, 40K yrlng, 110K RNA 2yo after 2F work 22.3; sire multiple G1 route winner (1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 1-3 sprint, 3-16 with 2yo FTS); winning dam (159K, 0-1 at 2, 4-36 sprint) has 3 wnrs/4 rnrs (1-3 with 2yos, 3-4 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SW Day Trader (447K, 1-4 at 2), sprint SP Hither Lane (192K, 0-2 at 2); barn's 1st 2yo synthetic FTS in pst 5 yrs. |
| Handshakesnkisses |
| Sire 85-619 (14%) 2yos; 1st starter from multiple SP dam (304K, 0-1 at 2, 3-19 sprint); female family G1 turf SW Fire the Groom (784K); barn 6-34 (18%, $0.68 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; dismiss recent line as she was completely overmatched; likely in too tough for debut as well; this level should suit her better, but must see more. |
| Trippydoodle |
| 1K RNA yrlng, 1.2K 2yo; sire 12% 2yos; SP dam (102K, 2-8 at 2, 0-9 sprint) has 0 wnrs/2 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G2 SW Tackleberry (914K, 4-7 sprint), 2yo G2 sprint SP Onetwentyeight (62K); barn 2-12, $2.73 pst 5 yrs 2yo synth sprint MCL; gave useful runs vs. promising fillies 8/20, 9/2, then tired after chasing decent pace; expecting better. |
| Savvy N Speightful |
| 27K RNA yrlng, 20K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 sprint SP Consulado (70K, 0-1 at 2); sire 20% 2yos; dam placed turf (5K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint) with 2 wnrs/3 rnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 sprint); dam 1/2 turf SW Lemonlime (125K, 0-1 sprint); barn 6%, $0.32 pst 5 yrs 2yos synth; behind odds-on winner that returned to Beyer 35 when 4th in 30K claimer; exotics chance. By Dan Illman |
Race 2
| Arc Above |
| He's the lone member of the field turning back in distance as he has been racing over a mile and a quarter; he's also moving back to a synthetic surface after a series of turf starts and note he has run well in the past on the main track at Kee; can move forward in second start since July; win candidate. |
| Sound Effect |
| He's a well-bred sort as a half-brother to French Braids, a multiple stakes winner of $607K, and Donegal, a stakes winner of $148K; moves back to a synthetic track and note both of his wins have come on such a surface; a concern is that the mile and an eighth distance might be pushing his limits. |
| Chalice |
| He's the winningest member of the field with four career victories on his resume; one of those wins came on a synthetic surface, by more than 11 lengths in a route race at Turfway; the mile and an eighth distance is a bit of a concern, but do like that he can be closer to the pace than most of these; stakes-placed runner might get nice trip tracking behind Volcano Run and maybe Salsa's Return. |
| Any Given Royal |
| Grade 3-placed runner is from a stakes-winning mare who earned $199K; this one is something of a fresh face as this will be his first start since early August; both of his wins have come on synthetic tracks, and note his stakes-placing came at this mile and an eighth trip; one of several who can share. |
| Volcano Run |
| Popular claim makes first start for Maker, who wins at an above average rate with new acquisitions; this one makes the move from five and a half furlongs to a mile and an eighth and on account of the stretch out looking for him to be prominent, perhaps taking these from the bell; has worked razor sharp for the task, with the one real question mark the mile and an eighth. |
| Norumbega |
| He's a half-brother to Grade 3 winners Hunting ($286K) and Quiet Harbor ($274K), and multiple stakes winner Seal Cove ($260K); makes a couple of notable moves; he's back in the overnight ranks after a graded stakes start and he also returns to the mile and an eighth distance over which both of his career wins have come; as for his first start on a synthetic surface, like that he has had a chance to work over the main track at Kee; win candidate. |
| Salsa's Return |
| He was a 14 length maiden winner two races ago and backed up the performance in his most recent start when he won a conditioned allowance at PID; is proven on a synthetic surface and can be closer to the pace than most of these, perhaps getting a tracking trip behind Volcano Run and maybe Chalice; a question is the distance, but there are aspects of his pedigree that suggests he could be effective at the trip; can share. By Mary Rampellini |
Race 3
| Love Me Good |
| First part of the coupling was well off the winner when third of 10 in her career debut over the track as a juvenile; twice beaten chalk draws inside again as she drops back in for a tag after chasing older and her better numbers do fit in here; capable of getting the mix for a share. |
| Cherokee Callie |
| Gets Lasix for the initial time after failing to pick up her feet in the local sprint return from 5 months on the shelf; she ran well at the level here in the spring and though she has yet to run particularly fast maybe she has a move forward in her second back from the break; price should again be big on the field's lone 3 time winner. |
| No Free Ride |
| Just missed against older conditioned claimers in her Presque Isle finale and now she'll make her local debut; filly was given a full 5 weeks to get over the career best number she earned in that last one so maybe she's not still feeling the effort here; she hasn't won in a while, however. |
| Rock Art |
| Limited winner tries synthetic footing for the first time after trailing the entire way on the Indiana Downs dirt; filly was a solid maiden winner on the Ellis Park lawn, but that was the only time her late kick was able to make her a serious threat; prefer others. |
| Snit Fit |
| New York shipper showed no lick in her last 2 grass starts there but did make up some ground late at a shorter trip against conditioned claimers last time; she's never tried this type of footing and has yet to win a race on the track; maybe for a share but looking elsewhere for the winner. |
| Bold Annie |
| Recent graduate tries winners and synthetic footing for the first time in this spot; she'll get off the fence here and is on the improve formwise so with just a handful of start under her belt it wouldn't be a surprise to see her jump up with another good effort while back in with fellow sophomores; consider. |
| Tricolette |
| Beaten last out chalk was caught in a wide spot from an outside slot over the Kentucky Downs lawn and now she'll get back in with sophomores in her synthetic debut; barn does an exceptional job placing its newly claimed runners right back and this filly's drill here last wek suggests she'll take to the new surface just fine; contender. |
| I'm So Vain |
| Other half of the entry eters this fresh after being given a few months to recover from a big win at Presque Isle; local maiden winner has sharp tactical foot and should find herself in a great spot from the outset in this heat; expecting she'll get the jump on her main foes in this one and that makes her the one to beat. |
| Run Kitten Run |
| Faces winners for the initial time after finding her level of maidens at Ellis Park a couple of months back; filly is on the improve and she did run ok on synthetic footing last year; barn does well when calling upon Rosie to steer and this gal's local drill the other day indicates she's on her toes. By Steve Grabowski |
Race 4
| Bethel |
| Back to reality after knocking heads with some tough ones and if he can regain the form he had when he was running at a realistic level earlier this year he could be a factor; he might be over the top after six straight double-digit losses, however, and he didn't run a jump in either of his races over this surface. |
| Liberty Wing |
| He hasn't fired since he won over the inner-track in New York but he is making his second start back following a layoff and this is a new low for him; first time on a synthetic surface and one of his siblings won on Poly at Arlington; he has good tactical speed and the shape of the race could work in his favor; consider for the exotics. |
| Zane |
| Horse that won his latest earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the $100K Laurel Turf Cup in his next start; this guy will appreciate the easier company and his trainer has solid stats in all the relevant categories; he also ran well the only time he ran here and it was at this distance; not out of the question. |
| Majestic Bay |
| First start after being claimed by Maker was a good one and obviously it would have been nice to have seen him come back a little sooner; not sure what took him so long to make it back but the past five years Maker has a 20% strike rate with horses returning between 61-180 days; he handled this surface just fine in April and he won at the distance in his latest on turf at Churchill; the pick. |
| Contempt of Court |
| Like the way he overcame a bad start to win his latest and he could be dangerous if he breaks alertly here; the way he broke his maiden going seven furlongs suggests he can go this far and he's out of Grade 1 winning mare that has produced a couple of route winners; his Beyer's come in a bit light but he is lightly raced and should have upside to him; don't sell short. |
| Quelch |
| The way he ran down the horse that got the jump on him in his latest at Arlington suggests he'll appreciate the added distance here; once again he earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure and a similar number should put him in the mix; first time on Poly and he's a half to Seeking the Orange who won a couple of races running over it at Turfway; contention runs deep. |
| Northern Luck |
| Clearly he was overmatched in his latest at Kentucky Downs but he also couldn't keep up against an average group of first-level allowance horses in his previous race at Mountaineer; it was a key race but one of the next-out winners won a $5K claimer; he comes out of a live barn but he'll need to improve substantially to contend here; prefer others. |
| Brat |
| He's won a couple of races on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs and horses coming from there have done well at the current meet; horse that finished second in his latest finished third in his next start in a $25K n/w/2 at Laurel in his next start; he'll need to improve on his career-best Beyer Speed Figure to win this however; prefer others. |
| Mr. G. L. B. |
| He improved his Beyer Speed Figure substantially in his first start after being claimed by Bourke who won with both of his starters at the meet; they both paid decent prices, too; the horse that finished second in his latest was coming off a third in a $200K stakes at Canterbury so it was a decent field he was chasing; lots to like, especially the price. By Randy Goulding |
Race 5
| Basuna |
| Lightweight receives a 10-13-pound weight concession from each rival in with her lowest-assignment ever; set the pace in her only other route race and figures to be part of the early mix from the gate here; stamina concerns and the lone route was a career-best Beyer but the speed figure came back light. |
| Flashy Bertie |
| 1st-blinkered start 2nd-time out did not produce the improved effort we were expecting; 1st-time synthetic surface today; high-percentage MSW-to-maiden-claiming barn for a 25%-winning jockey-trainer combo since 2012; rallied in the debut loss behind the winner who repeated in an ELP-optional claimer with a 69 Beyer speed figure. |
| Aspergia |
| The 4th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 71-53 in next-out PID-MSW and IND-25K-maiden-claiming wins; she removed blinkers for last then produced a career-best Beyer but that turf effort saw her beat just 1 runner home 119 days ago; the 2-back show runner Beyered 71 in an AP-MSW graduation next out; gets her 6th different rider in as many races which is not a good win angle; |
| Dr. Sprinkles |
| Working well for a high-percentage fresh trainer; races 1st-time on synthetic after a disappointing career debut; sire banked 1.9M in dirt routes including the Grade 2 Pa. Derby; is the 1st foal out of a 1-for-11 dam who never raced longer than 6F. |
| Party Starter |
| Needed last start off the long layoff for a high-percenatge MSW-to-maiden claiming barn; sire banked 4.5M in dirt routes including Grade 1 wins in the Travers and the Whitney; is out of a 1-for-6 dirt-route dam who produced 1-for-3 dirt-router Tobacco Fox (26K); debut vs. the now G1-winner and runner-up (2-time SW) finishers who Beyered 87-80 in next-out GP-MSW and optional-claiming wins. |
| Fancy Hat |
| Turf-to-synthetic is a high-percentage win move from the barn; has had plenty of time between races but latest was a strong effort in defeat facing the winner who repeated with a 69 Beyer while she beat the 9th-place finisher a 63 Beyer-ELP-30K-maiden-claiming next-out graduate. |
| Ottaviano |
| Defeated 3 runners combined from 3 losses; high-percentage turf-to-synthetic trainer adds to the appeal but obviously must show a lot more form to make any impact here; the winner from last repeated with a 69 Beyer; the 2-back runner-up won her next 2 races including a BEL-100K stakes with a 91 Beyer; the debut-show runner Beyered 89 in a next-out BEL MSW triumph. |
| Broadband Betty |
| The 1st-blinkered start produced her 2nd-highest Beyer ever but now races on a synthetic surface for a 1-for-22 trainer on this type of oval since 2012; removes blinkers for this with serious stamina issues finishing last in her only stamina test at 1 Mile chasing the winner who repeated with a 66 Beyer taking a MNR allowance. |
| Careless Moment |
| Career-debut 17 days ago saw her beat 1 runner home; sire won 1-of-9 dirt routes (180K) but scored that win in the G2 Withers at 1 Mile; dam went 0-for-2 in dirt routes (17K) finishing 2nd twice the latest was in a BEL-MSW event; she produced 0-for-2 dirt-router Mahaya. |
| Midnight Sweetie |
| Best finish was at a much shorter distance on a wet-main track; exits a career-best Beyer on turf making her 1st-synthetic surface start today; just didn't show enough spark in 2 prior-route races so will be backing others from this ground-losing draw. |
| Sue Me Baby |
| Has never been this far of a distance but has shown gate speed; she figures to be a major-pace presence today; 3-time-beaten favorite faded the only time on a synthetic surface; the 3-back winner repeated with a 66 Beyer capturing a MNR allowance next out. |
| Doctor Vickie Lynn |
| Has worked on KEE synthetic like she will love it here; posted the field's best Beyer at longer on turf; the MSW-to-maiden claiming angle has only produced 6% winners for the trainer since 2012; exits her lowest speed figure since October, '12, but off the sharp-local worktab seems ready to bounce back with a big race today. By Art Gropper |
Race 7
| Helicopter |
| Any runner that can win 20 of 67 is a friend of mine; distance specialist has the two races under the girth now and he was boosted a bit when the winner 6/26 took a $16K seller next out, then beat $25K claiming foes; gelding could be on the fragile side as the races have been spaced but he is perfect locally and rates long look right back. |
| Chas the Man |
| Like the fact he has natural speed but he can track and still succeed; the 9/8 place horse cashed next out in a $14K optional, then was out of the money in a $75K stakes; pace was much quicker last time than in the win on 9/8 and he still extended a bit late; top last-race Beyer in the pocket; threepeat well within the scope. |
| Dynamic Host |
| Life and death for the lone win this year and up against only 5 foes; runner was in some good barns in California including Julio Canani's and he has trained like a Swiss clock for this race; must respect everything from this barn. |
| Onceinmylifetime |
| Turf only so far so he automatically has something to prove; out of the money in all 3 synthetic outings; on a soft pace last time and he still lost ground late; looking elsewhere for a key top horse. |
| Flattermejim |
| Seemed overmatched in the September races; the 9/2 place horse cashed next out in an N3X allowance with an 89 Beyer; runner wins his share, has put wins together in the past and he has won on the synthetic; too sharp to ignore. |
| Curmudgeon |
| Trainer has spotted them great with limited starters this year; he can run all day long and he can sit closer to the pace today if in the mood; only beaten a neck in the best local effort; another contender in a good betting race. |
| Thunder Affair |
| It's been awhile since this Thunder has made any noise; the 2013 opener was solid, but he has kind of run the same losing race since; look for him to show more speed on the stretch out but not sure he'll be around at the end. |
| Manx |
| This is a tough sell for just a double winner; he is facing several that have been around the block and back; can't be thrilled with the local slate and he was losing ground late at a shorter trip; passing. |
| Bold Choice |
| With limited speed, he was in kind of tough on the cut back last time; runner was fully extended two back and they were all together on the line, sometimes a sign of just an ordinary race; the 7/12 place horse took a $40K optional next out, lost next pair; apparently not much of a work horse and he is making his synthetic debut; he has some things to iron out. |
| Runaway Brute |
| Fully extended for the lone win this year and that was in the short field; he has to find a way to turn the tables on the Estes runner among othes; when one consistently concedes 6 to 18 lengths, he becomes his own worst enemy. |
| Keniko |
| Three times as many slices as wins; only one slice here but he was coming on until the very end; figures to get away on the tote since he was handled by all the trifecta players in the race two back; not seeing it. |
| Bailoutbobby |
| Took the huge drop for the lone win and it came on grass; decent effort two back considering he was off slow but that was a much softer fray; was in the good barn of O'Neill's out west but he may be compromised by the post today; can't endorse. By Brian Mulligan |
Race 8
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