Keeneland: Closer Looks for April 16, 2014

Race 1

Upkirk

Lots of upside off the debut loss where screaming out for more distance while rallying 8 wide; his trainer wins 22% with similar-fresh runners and 20% with maiden-2nd starters; shows 6 synthetic-surface workouts and 3-KEE bullet works dating back to March, 2013; hard to leave out.

Northeast Bound

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure on GP turf; the trainer is 3-for-22 since 2013 using the turf-to-synthetic angle; the 3-back winner repeated in a TAM-allowance with an 87 Beyer; curious that rider Lanerine who rode him twice opts for the other Romans-runner the uncoupled Ready Mecke for this.

Lincoln Law

Adding blinkers today which suggests he wants to show more gate speed than he did in latest when rallying well; trainer is a superb 25% winners with the 1st-blinkers angle since 2013; the added furlong here is an issue as in his 4 prior losses he lacked stamina; view as a pace presence.

Aggrandizement

Will be a major-pace presence off the GP-dirt fades the latest at today's distance; may get loose on the lead which helps any runner; the 3-back winner repeated in an OP allowance with an 82 Beyer then Saturday won a 100K-OP stakes with an 87; the KEE-worktab looks right on the money for a trainer 0-for-10 since 2013 with synthetic-surface starters; seems the one to catch and beat.

Squidalem

Exits his best workout ever which was posted on dirt; career-debut rally on synthetic vs. the winner who repeated in a TP-optional claimer with a 77 Beyer; great sign it's 1st-time Leparoux winning 6-of-24 for sizzling-trainer McPeek at KEE since 2013.

Delta Golf Alpha

A lot to prove following a career-low number then the long layoff; field-best Beyer speed figure was accomplished at today's distance but on CD turf; his trainer is 0-for-3 since 2013 with runners moving from grass-to-synthetic; others appeal more.

Lotta Heat

Drops to lowest price tag ever but seems up against it here off latest far-back loss to Lincoln Law; likely the extra furlong for this can help the cause but have not seen anything close to best form displayed in his Beyer Top career debut on grass.

Ready Mecke

Steps up in claiming price off 3 so-so efforts on GP grass; 14%-win trainer since 2013 turf-to-synthetic; rider Lanerie took this one over Romans' other starter uncoupled Northeast Bound; today is his longest-distance test to date and why not try the surface switch to help shake up the form.

Succesful Brothers

The main knock is that he's lost already for a lower-price tag; races for a sizzling-KEE trainer; while many of these race on a synthetic surface for the 1st time his TP-September, 2012, career debut represents the field's best Beyer speed figure on an all-weather racetrack; figures to work out a good-stalking trip chasing projected pacesetters Aggrandizement and Lincoln Law; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 67 in a next-out GP-25K-maiden-claiming win; the pick.-Art Gropper

Race 2

Raku

Sire Eye of the Tiger is 1 for first 17 (over 5%) with firsters, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 5 of 19 for $535K, was G2/G3 SW, G1/G2 SP; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 foals including Radical Swing (2 wins, $24K) and this one's full-sis Radical Measures (1 win, $9K); works didn't inspire much confidence until that sharp :47.20 move here April 11.

Choctaw Won

First 2 starts weren't very pretty; in his defense, they were just his first 2 starts and came vs. straight maidens; they also came at WO last spring/summer and he hasn't been seen since (9 months); last run saw him duel and fizzle on turf; at least has worked strongly here (bullet :46 April 3); 4 sibs to race are winners including Zuri's Girl (8 wins, $114K), She's the Umpire (6 wins, $254K) and Bogue Chitto (8 wins, $403K, SW, G2 SP).

Perdido Brew

First 2 starts, on dirt vs. straight maidens at FG in November, were most encouraging (ran 2nd in each) but then came a full run there Dec. 20; freshened since and while he drops he's hardly a giveaway for this kind of price; it is first time synthetic but he worked very nicely here April 7.

L. A. Freeway

Could be scary; GP dirt debut was ugly but he dwelt at the start so you can be forgivigng; came back to be a good 3rd for $50K there Feb. 28 and Tomlinson saw fit to claim him; freshened since, worked steadily but it's nice to see he's well up in price off the claim despite the layoff; there's pedigree, too - his 3 siblings are winners including Reneesgotzip (7 wins, $795K, G2/G3 SW, multiple G1 SP on dirt and turf).

Tall Boy

Yet to make a dent in 8 starts; in his defense, all that work has come vs. tougher straight maidens; they paid $425K for him so there are likely still expectations here, though it's a tad worrisome that they're now willing to lose him for about 20% of that price; showed speed in his lone synthetic try, which came here last fall, though he faltered late; drop could be key but it needs to result in a significant move forward; lone sib is Irsaal (3 wins, $188K, SP).

Cool Attitude

Decent 3rd on synthetic at TP when last seen; trouble is, 'when last seen' was nearly 4 months ago and it also came vs. $30K foes so not only is there a layoff to deal with but now a class hike; at least shown he handles synthetic and he's worked decently of late; also, that last 3rd looks better when you note 2 he faced that day came right back to win;1 of 2 sibs to race is winner Here Comes Money (1 win, $16K).-Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Never On Time

Speedy gelding draws the fence for the stretchout in his first start off this outfit's claim; nice to see them return him in a protected spot and he'll get a solid rider switch for this one; he does draw inside the other lick in here, but he hasn't had much to offer late in either of his local spins and will probably again be tired from his pace efforts at this extended trip.

Slick Pardoned Me

Gets back on synthetic footing after the narrow score in his Oaklawn finale; 8 year old has won 6 times on this type of footing and he figures to get a solid clip in front of him today; he doesn't win so often anymore and his last may have taken a bit out of him, but anything close to the effort would make him a big threat in here.

Nolangrant'skitten

Wasn't able to threaten conditioned claimers on either surface at Fair Grounds in his last 2 starts and no he'll try footing over which he ran second in his lone try over it; figures to get the pace to run at today, but he's shown no early interest at all of late and even at today's trip could find himself with work to do in the lane.

Five Afleet

Hasn't done much in either of his 2 starts since taken by this outfit including most recently over the local main track; it's been a long time since he's won and his recent efforts don't stack up so well with these; looms another big price.

Gallant Eagle (IRE)

Seven year old makes his first start of the year while returning to a venue at which he's run well; he owns some sharp fresh efforts and has been working well here of late so expect he'll be set to fire and a solid journeyman pilot gets aboard; contender from a tracking spot.

Starforce

Gray has had trouble finding enough late at Turfway recently, but he had been chasing second level allowance runners in those heats; expect he'll find this bunch easier and he does have the tactical foot to find a good spot from the outset today; maybe the class relief helps turn things around for him in his local debut.

Symphonic Hero

Front runner starts towards the outside in his local debut run after giving up a clear early lead when stretched out to this trip in his Laurel finale; gelding has won from a tracking spot in the past and maybe that's what they look to do with him here, but this footing is new to him so a price would need to be offered to back him.

Brother Stuart

Outside drawn gelding has been hampered by wide trips of late and now he'll return to a venue at which he's yet to hit the board in 3 career spins; maybe the pace benefits him here and he's able to get in the mix for a minor share, but have to back others on the win end.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Reflecting

5-year-old got his third win over this course a year ago but he's been stuck at this level since; horse that beat him at Parx Sept. 14 is a multiple Grade 3 winner; McGaughey can have them ready to roll coming off this type of layoff but you get the feeling this guy wants a bit more distance; prefer others.

Grand Arch

He came off a similar layoff to win a first-level allowance race here via disqualification so we know he can fire fresh and he is also undefeated at the distance; horse that finished fifth in his last start won his next two including a Grade 3 at the Fairgrounds; horse that beat him in the Labeeb also won his next two including the Grade 3 Commontwealth at Churchill; looks like a major player in a wide-open event.

Geothermal

Nice win two back in a key race washed off the lawn and the horse he beat is Grade 3 placed with 11 wins and $533K in earnings; he was bottled up most of the way in his latest but he didn't fire when he eventually found some running room; looks like he might be a cut below some of the ones he is facing here.

Moro Tap

4-year-old is winless in two starts as an older horse but that was a solid field he faced in his latest at Gulfstream; Hangover Kid finished third to multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth last year; strong connections behind him and he could make some noise if an honest pace develops in front of him.

Olympic Thunder (BRZ)

No wins in North America in five starts is a concern but he did come close to winning the Grade 3 Ky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs last year; that was going 1 1/2 miles, however, and though both of his wins in South America came in one-mile races you get the impression he wants more distance than he is getting here; looking elsewhere.

Cummings Road

He comes off two solid races at Gulfstream and owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure; encouraged to see Leparoux retain the call and with his tactical speed he figures to get a nice trip sitting just off Adios Nardo and/or Valentino Beauty; horse that edged him in his latest won the Grade 3 Jersey Derby last year; contender.

Adios Nardo

5-year-old couldn't get it done as the heavy chalk in his latest but he may have bounced after two big efforts behind $957K Grade 3 winner Daddy Nose Best; he's had a couple of decent works since so he could be ready for another strong performance; he's also versatile and can either set the tone early or stalk what figures to be a moderate pace; the pick.

Valentino Beauty

Lightly raced 5-year-old won his only start over this course coming off a long layoff last year and the past five years Drury has a 29 percent strike rate with horses returning after being away for 180 days or more; last year he was undefeated going into his comeback race but he hasn't won since; he should be in the mix early but there are some questions that need answering so we're going to just watch and see how he comes back.-Randy Goulding

Race 6

Act of Heroism

Extra-fine work tab for this beginner who must deal with this tricky rail slot; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.98 million; offspring of Empire Maker have scored in 11 percent of their debuts; the dam went 3 for 18 earning 112K; this is her sole foal to start.

Canadian Winner

Obviously, he is not one for a sloppy track but the showing over a fast surface 2 back, which featured a strong middle move, was respectable; draws well now and could be a late presence if the pace set-up is there.

For Goodness Sake

Claimed out of a decent try at Gulfstream, he should be able to handle this extension in distance; his sire won the Derby and 3.61 million while the dam won 1 of 10 appearances earning 26K; among the winning sibs is 42K earner Skinny Legs.

Xaverian

Deep closer did not warrant 2 to 1 in the last try but ran deceptively well considering the poor beginning; his sire was a G1 main track winner who captured 633K while the mom won 9 of 39 and 285K; sib to 368K earner Delicate Dynamic.

Sportscaster

Encouraged by the recent work tab at Gulfstream; he was unable to get into the race in his 2 most recent appearances (in the race on 1/20, he lost a 3-way place photo); has to find a way to get into gear sooner and the a.m. moves of late should help.

Special Agent

On the shelf since a fairly even try at Gulfstream when facing a dozen opponents; has met repeat winners in 2 of his 3 ventures and may find this field more to his liking; was compromised on 12/1 by a wide post and racing path.

Sharp Stick

Solid maiden voyage a month ago considering all the trouble; his sire won 4 of 10 and 490K while the dam won 2 of 13 and 12K; among the winning siblings is 446K earner Miami Deco; can make the surface switch a winning one.

I'mbetterthangood

A steady performer up to now who has earned a solid check in every start this year; blinker removal can afford him to relax further off the pace than in his last attempt where he might have moved way too early; respect.

Conquest Top Gun

Decent debut at Woodbine when bet down to 3 to 1 and then did not threaten when trying the green thereafter; note the vast improvement to the latest half-mile workout; the sire won a G1 and 1.63 million; the dam won 1 of 8 and 62K; sib to 58K earner Ron Burgundy.

Noble Bird

Outworked Conquest Top Gun by a full second at the course and distance; he faced winners when starting his career over the turf at Tampa; deserves serious follow-up now; sire won multiple G1s and 1.57 million; dam was unraced; sib to 114K earner Brother Pat.

Free to Dance

He had little chance in his first attempt when trying to rally into very soft fractions; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.31 million; the am was unraced; among the winning siblings is 36K earner South to the Sea.

Tower of Texas

Twice failed at odds-on in Canada last season and today's outpost could pose serious problems; obviously will not be as short a price today but has been breezing steadily, and exclusively, at five-eighths of late; puzzling possibility.-Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Cup of Joy

Won on turf at ELP last summer, but his other turf start, which came at CD in the fall wasn't very pretty and if anything this is a tougher spot; comes off a couple so-so outings, his first 2 of the year, on TP Polytrack and MNR dirt and now moves to turf; at least Court was up for that ELP win last summer so he knows what makes this guy tick, but it's still a tough spot.

Live in Joy

3rd behind many-time winner Mr. Online at GP Jan. 24; freshened since but Rosario stays and Maker, of course, is strong off the bench; 4 of 5 wins have come on turf; only local sode try wasn't much but that came a while ago and he may be a better horse now than he was then; Maker plunked down $62,500 to claim him at CD Sept. 29 and it's nice to see he keeps him where he can't lose him via another claim.

Ol Army

Dueled and fizzled in the G2 Fayette on the main track here last Oct. 26, dueled and fizzled in the G3 River City on turf at CD Nov. 23; those spots were obviously too tough for him; freshened since and down in class, both of which may help quite a bit; after all, he was a sharp 2nd in a spot like this here last Oct. 11 so a return to that performance level can surely make him a threat and he's working of late as though he's feeling pretty darn spry.

Awesome Overture

Sire Awesome Again gets over 6% first time turf winners and over 12% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 9 of 12 for $4.3 million, won multiple G1s including the BC Classic, no turf tries; dam has 2 winners from 4 foals to race, Unbridled Overture (2 wins, both on turf, $26K) an dthis one's full-bro Awesome Overture (3 wins, $195K, twice G3 SP at WO); dam won 7 of 19 for $323K, 2-time SW including a G3, off board in 2 turf tries; it's his first start of the year so not only is it new footing but there's a layoff to deal with; certainly showed some class at WO last year (multiple G3 SP).

His Race to Win

2 big wins on WO's Polytrack last summer but then came over 2 months off, a not-so-hot run (5th) in a turf stakes at FG Nov. 30 and he hasn't been seen since; that's not the most endearing pattern; at least has shown turf talent and run well fresh but considering he was doing so well last summer the pattern since (layoff/dull turf race/layoff) gives cause for pause.

Villandry

Seemed to find himself in the summer/fall 2012 as he won 3 of 4 but the pattern since is a tad worrisome - long layoff (11 months) then 4 OK outings last fall and now another 4 months off; at least when he did resurface last fall he did so vs. some very tough foes; Lopresti showed with Wise Dan last week that he can get 'em ready off the bench, though in fairness, while this guy has ability, he's no Wise Dan.

Kalamos

No surprise he was ready to fire in his U.S. debut in Oct. 2013 after over 13 months on the bench; after all, we're talking Mr. Mott who can get 'em ready off the layoff with thebest of them; next 2 at GP weren't bad (3rd in each) and he's been freshened again; there' stalent here to be sure and while he lost his last 2 note his Beyers actually went UP so he ran pretty darn well; scary.

Chief Exchanger

Sire Exchange Rate gets over 11% first time turf winners and overall turf winners; sire won 6 of 15 for $479K, was G2 SW, G2/G3 SP on dirt, won 2 of 4 on turf, was G2 SP on turf; dam's only foal is Rod's Five Star (9 wins, $387K, SW, multiple SP, no turf starts); dam won 4 of 19 for $71K, no turf starts; plenty of good work on synthetic at PID and KEE last summer/fall; hasn't been seen in a while (6 months) so there's the layoff question as well as the turf question.-Michael Hammersly