Keeneland Babies for 4/6

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet. It won't be easy with limited form on display, but I'll shoot for a profit.

Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Berrys Pride (Millennium Wind Berry Point, by Romeo)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled May 5, 2005 in Michigan1/2 to multiple stakes-winner Secret Romeo (55-23-16-3, $865,790)sire a Grade 1 winner (7-3-2-0, $769,920, 1-2 at 2, won debut)sire 4-27 (15%) with juvenile firstersdam a winner (21-3-3-3, $54,030, 0-1 at 2, all wins sprinting in the mud)dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 4 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winnersdam a half to multiple stakes-winner Shake Rag Ruthie (14-7-1-2, $151,922, 0-2 at 2, 6 wins sprinting), and stakes-placed Alaura (27-7-3-5, $95,616, all wins sprinting) trainer is 4-74 (5%, $0.88 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-32, 3%, $0.95 ROI at Keeneland)3/31 and 4/4 works match up with entrymate3/31 work matches up with barns 3yo Bronze Tribute (58 Beyer top).

1A. Hot Chili (Daylight Savings Chili Lee, by Belted Earl)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled April 30, 2005 in Michigansire a Grade 3 winner on turf (34-8-9-10, $461,285, all wins either routing, or on turf)sire 0-7 with juvenile firstersdam a winner (41-8-7-5, $106,748, 0-6 at two, 7 sprint wins, sold for $30,000 as juvenile)dam has 8 foals of racing age, 7 runners, 5 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 3 juvenile winners)dam half to stakes-placed sprinter Cissys Alison (20-4-4-3, $44,742, 3 sprint wins) trainer is 4-74 (5%, $0.88 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-32, 3%, $0.95 ROI at Keeneland) 3/31 and 4/4 works match up with entrymate3/31 work matches up with barns 3yo Bronze Tribute (58 Beyer top).

2. Yogissplashofgold (Touch Gold Yogis Polar Bear, by Lucky Lionel)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Foaled February 22, 2005 in California...withdrawn (Barretts October 2005)sire a multiple Grade 1 winner (15-6-3-1, $1,679,907, 1-4 at 2, won debut)sire 17-159 (11%) with juvenile firsters (3 debut winners this year)dam a juvenile sprint stakes-winner (3-1-2-0, $70,345, all races sprinting at two, sold for $26,000 as yearling, $20,000 as yearling, $120,000 as juvenile)this is dams first foaldam half to stakes-placed sprinter Bullet Train (14-3-2-1, $82,130, 1-3 at two), and Grade 2-placed Touch the Wire (20-5-1-5, $247,418, 4 of 5 wins routing)trainer has four debut winners this year, 3 juvenile debut winners, all with Lasixtrainer is 27-103 (26%, $2.22 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-2 at Keeneland).

3. Yes Hes Best (Three Wonders Bestsayes, by Marsayas)
Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Foaled May 15, 2005 in Floridaout (OBS February 2007), withdrawn (OBS March 2007)1/2 to stakes-winner Say Dance (78-11-14-11, $361,177, 10 of 11 wins either routing or on turf), stakes-placed Best of the Sea (33-6-6-5, $91,796, 5 of 6 wins routing), stakes-winning sprinter Whitneys Best (3-2-1-0, $41,950), and Grade 2 winner She Says It Best (8-4-2-0, $382,918, won debut at 2)sire a Grade 3 winner on turf (30-4-2-2, $318,032, 1-5 at 2, all wins either routing, or on turf)sire 2-41 (5%) with juvenile firstersdam was unraceddam has 9 foals of racing age, 7 starters, 6 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 3 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winnerdam a half to multiple Grade 3-placed (in Panama) Shake Uptrainer is 11-61 (18%, $1.53 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-3 at Keeneland).

4. Double Or Nothing (Double Honor T. G. for Wanda, by Fortunate Prospect)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Foaled February 8, 2005 in Florida$22,000 yearling (OBS August 2006)1/2 to stakes-placed Wise Diplomat (29-4-5-10, $175,766)sire a Grade 3 sprint winner at two (8-2-2-1, $251,612, all races at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting)sire 16-166 (10%) with juvenile firstersdam a winner (33-2-5-9, $24,943, 0-6 at 2, sold for $40,000 as juvenile)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winnerdam half to Grade 2 winner What a Diplomat (28-3-5-6, $192,475, 0-4 at 2)sire-broodmare sire nick produced stakes-winning sprinter Misguided Left (15-4-1-2, $106,805, 2-5 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting)broodmare sire is the damsire of two debut winners this yeartrainer is 21-216 (10%, $0.97 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (6-28, 21%, $1.61 ROI at Keeneland).

5. G Areyoukidding (Matty G Are You Kidding, by Demaloot Demashoot)
Trainer: David Pate
Foaled March 24, 2005 in Kentucky$2,200 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)1/2 to multiple stakes-winner Whatsitgonnatake (12-4-0-2, $104,429)sire a Grade 1 winner at two (19-4-1-2, $443,275, 2-6 at 2, 3 of 4 wins either routing, or on turf)sire 8-105 (8%) with juvenile firstersdam was unraceddam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner)dam a half to Grade 3 winner Beautiful Bets (47-7-10-9, $399,710)trainer is 3-45 (7%, $1.16 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-8 at Keeneland).

6. Charlies Academy (Royal Academy Final Flag, by Northern Flagship)
Trainer: John Hancock
Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentucky$3,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $15,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)sire a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner on turf (7-4-2-0, $758,994, juvenile debut winner, all wins on grass)sire 14-120 (12%) with juvenile firstersdam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $525, sold for $20,000 as a yearling)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winnerdam half to Grade 3 winner Federal Funds (144-12-10-20, $595,933, 2-9 at 2, 10 route wins), and stakes-placed Red Classic (47-5-12-5, $185,009, 0-5 at 2, 4 route wins)trainer is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (no record at Keeneland).

7. Gregorys Trick (Favorite Trick Blue Defense, by Defensive Play)
Trainer: Leroy Simon
Foaled April 16, 2005 in Florida$4,500 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005)sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (16-12-0-1, $1,726,793, 8-8 at two)sire 15-104 (14%) with juvenile firsters (2 debut winners this year)dam was stakes-placed (40-6-5-8, $79,685, 1-3 at 2, sold for $5,200 as yearling, $4,000 as juvenile)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner (in Mexico), 0 winners, 0 juvenile runnersdam half to multiple route stakes-winner Alishas Favorite (18-4-4-1, $110,575, 0-1 at 2, all wins routing)this is trainers first juvenile debut performer over the past five years.

8. Nownownow (Whywhywhy Here and Now, by Exit to Nowhere)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentuckyout (Keeneland November 2005), out (Keeneland April 2007)1/2 to French turf stakes-winner Marche de Paixsire a Grade 1 winner at two (9-3-1-1, $315,015, 3-5 at two)this is sires first starterdam a turf route winner in France (12-1-0-0)dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner)second dam was stakes-placed on turf (18-4-1-1, $41,767. 3 turf wins)trainer is 17-71 (24%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-12, 17%, $0.92 ROI at Keeneland)3/30 work matches up with barns 4yo filly Vague (88 Beyer top, 106+ Timeform), 3yo filly Stadore (88 Beyer top on grass, 94 Timeform), 3yo filly Countess Scala (74 Beyer top), and 4yo filly Miss Norman (82 Beyer top).

9. Hargill (El Corredor Hardy Har Har, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Foaled January 23, 2005 in Kentuckywithdrawn (Keeneland September 2006)sire a Grade 1 winner (10-7-1-0, $727,920, 1-2 at 2)sire 8-81 (10%) with juvenile firsters (1 debut winner this year)dam a winner (9-1-1-3, $32,440, won sprinting in the mud, sold for $400,000 as a yearling)dam has 2 foals of racing agethis is her first runnersecond dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Kittiwake (54-18-12-9, $338,086, stakes-placed at 2), multiple Grade 3 winner Oilfield (34-5-4-6, $184,295), multiple turf stakes-winner (in France) Beaconaire, and multiple stakes-placed turfer (in France) All Forgottenbroodmare sire the damsire of 2 debut winners this yeartrainer has 3 debut winners this year, all with Lasix, one for this ownertrainer is 112-565 (20%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (18-71, 25%, $2.63 ROI at Keeneland)March 27 workout matches barns 3yo Forty Grams (95 Beyer top).

Analysis:
HARGILL debuts for powerful connections, and the early foal may have a slight maturity edge over the other babies. He must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post, but the feeling is hes going to be quick enough to obtain a forward position without losing too much ground. NOWNOWNOW is the first starter by Whywhywhy, a Biancone-trained colt that earned a 102 Beyer in the Grade 1 Futurity at Belmont. There are a lot of turf and stamina influences on the bottom of the pedigree, but this barn can certainly crank them up to win at first asking. HOT CHILI and BERRYS PRIDE will get a test as Michigan-breds against open competition, but they show steady works, and their pedigrees are solid enough. Theyll likely be overlooked on the tote board. YOGISSPLASHOFGOLD goes out for a top first-out trainer, and fillies regularly beat males at this point of their careers. Shell have to break cleanly from the inside post. YES HES BEST shows some very quick works from the gate while G AREYOUKIDDING boasts a quick 5 furlong move leading up to this.

Selection: Hargill to win (5-2 odds or more)