Keeneland Babies for 4/21

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Saturday, April 21, 2007
Race 2
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Spin Move (Mutakddim Body Moves, by Bold Ruckus)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Foaled April 17, 2005 in Ontario, Canada$94,888 yearling (Canadian September 2006)full sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Mutakinmove (7-1-3-0, $88,533, all races sprinting at two)sire a turf sprint stakes-winner in England (17-5-3-2, $126,174, 1-3 at two, 5-13 in sprints, all races on turf)sire is 32-166 (19%) with juvenile firsters (has 4 debut winners this year, 1 juvenile debut winner at Keeneland)dam was a winner (13-2-2-0, $17,959, 2-11 in dirt sprints)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winnerdam a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Body Moves (45-18-11-6, $249,465, 3-6 at two, won debut, 7-19 in dirt sprints)trainer is 49-272 (18%, $2.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Kristal Sparkle (Yankee Victor Winged Attack, by Silver Hawk)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled March 1, 2005 in Kentucky$3,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)sire a Grade 1 winner (19-8-3-1, $833,806, 1-3 at 2, 6 route wins)sire 37-206 (18%) with juvenilesdam was unraceddam has 3 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winnersecond dam a Grade 3 winner (20-3-6-4, $298,996, 0-1 at 2) barn is 1-27 (4%, $1.22 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles making their second lifetime start (0-1 with juveniles making second lifetime start in 4.5 furlong baby race at Keeneland)April 17 workout matches barns 3-year-old filly Laughwiththedevil (finished seventh in 30K claimer on April 20 at Keeneland).

3. American County (Gibson County Young American, by Pentelicus)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled January 26, 2005 in Florida$67,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007, worked a bullet 10 seconds flat at the sale)sire a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (25-5-3-5, $376,465, 3-5 at 2, 4 sprint wins)sire 7-32 (22%) with juveniles dam was placed (9-0-2-2, $4,090, 0-4 at 2, all races sprinting, cost $12,000 as a yearling)dam has 5 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner)dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Propulsor (44-4-9-6, $93,159, 3 sprint wins), and stakes-winner Roana Gale (29-5-2-5, $128,454, 4-10 at 2, 4 sprint wins)trainer is 21-135 (16%, $1.32 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles making their second start.

4. Rated Fiesty (Exchange Rate Fiesty Countess, by Count the Time)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled March 6, 2005 in Floridasire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (15-6-2-2, $479,803, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-6 in dirt sprints)sire is 6-48 (13%) with juvenile firstersdam was a Grade 3 winner (23-9-2-4, $389,465, 5-8 at two, won debut, 6-13 sprinting, sold for $14,000 as a short yearling, $12,000 as a yearling, and for $5,200 as a juvenile)this is dams first foalsecond dam a halfs-sister to Grade 1 winner Dance Teacher (17-6-5-2, $327,800), multiple British turf stakes-winner Lunar Mover, and multiple Grade 2 sprint winner Gold Mover (31-13-9-5, $1,523,010, 4-6 at two, 13-28 in dirt sprints)trainer has 113 juvenile debut winners over the past five years (has 5 debut winners this year, 2 Keeneland baby winners this meet, 1 for this owner)trainer has 14 juvenile debut winners in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland over the past five yearsApril 3 workout matches barns juvenile Hensley (finished fourth in debut on April 13), juvenile filly Predate (finished fifth in debut on April 18), juvenile Lantana Mob (finished second in debut on April 12), and juvenile Possetothemax (finished third in debut on April 20)Feruary 25, March 2, March 4, March 18 works match barns juvenile filly Wild Logic (finished fifth in debut on April 14 at Woodbine)March 18 work matches barns juvenile Must Acquit (finished fourth in debut on April 12), and juvenile Hargill (finished fourth in debut on April 6)February 25, March 4 works match barns juvenile filly Wonderful Luck (won debut here on April 18).

5. Brookes Valentine (Fusaichi Pegasus Jena Jena, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled February 14, 2005 in Kentuckysire was a Grade 1 route winner (9-6-2-0, $1,994,400, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints)sire is 9-68 (13%) with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 4 debut winners in 2007Fusaichi Pegasus Dixieland Band nick has produced Grade 1 winner Bandini (9-5-1-0, $676,380, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting)dam was a multiple sprint stakes-winner (14-6-2-2, $272,888, 2-3 at two, won debut, 6-11 in dirt sprints, sold for $225,000 as a yearling, and for $475,000 as a juvenile)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 0 juvenile runnersdam a half-sister to juvenile sprint stakes-winner Up Like Thunder (9-2-2-0, $113,202, 2-4 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints)dam a full sister to juvenile sprint stakes-winner Win With a Wink (4-3-0-0. $124,860, all races at two, 3-3 sprinting)trainer has 98 juvenile debut winners over the past five years (has 4 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby winner this meet)trainer is 11-27 (41%) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at KeenelandMarch 18 workout matches barns juvenile Readys Image (won debut here on Friday).

6. Floy (Petionville Risen Miss, by Peteski)
Trainer: Jeffrey Thornbury

Foaled March 17, 2005 in Kentuckysire was a Grade 2 route winner (15-7-0-1, $811,905, 1-1 at two, 3-3 in dirt sprints)sire 12-176 (7%) with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 2 debut winners in 2007dam was a winner (23-4-6-2, $114,865, 2-14 in dirt sprints, sold for $19,000 as a juvenile)this is dams first foalsecond dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Fortunate Facts (30-7-4-7, $202,949, 0-2 in dirt sprints), and Grade 3 winner General Royal (39-11-6-7, $483,484, 2-7 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints)trainer is 0-15 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

7. Caviarbythecreek (Storm Creek Copper Caviar, by End Sweep)
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Foaled March 28, 2005 in California$2,200 short yearling (Barretts January 2006)sire a Grade 3 winner (14-4-2-3, $183,887, 2-6 at two, 2-5 in dirt sprints)sire is 10-236 (4%) with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $2,100, all races sprinting at two, sold for $25,000 as a juvenile)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner)second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Forty Weight (49-7-9-1, $162,891, 1-7 at two, 1-16 in dirt sprints)trainer is 3-23 (13%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

8. Miss Mesa (Sky Mesa Superduper Miss, by Robyn Dancer)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Foaled April 4, 2005 in Kentucky$112,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)sire a Grade 1 juvenile sprint winner (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner ni 2007this is sires first starterdam was a multiple sprint stakes-winner (34-11-11-4, $608,964, 2-5 at two, 11-33 in dirt sprints)dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runnerdam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Lines of Beauty (33-9-10-5, $508,220, 1-2 at two, 3-9 in dirt sprints)trainer is 4-70 (6%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)

9. Bluegrass Girl (Jump Start Aire Mystique, by Sportin Life)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 24, 2005 in Kentucky$40,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), $7,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007)sire a Grade 2 juvenile sprint winner (5-2-1-0, $221,265, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 in dirt sprints)sire is 4-48 (8%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 debut winner this year)dam was a stakes-winner (30-4-8-4, $73,889, 0-4 at two, 1-9 in dirt sprints, sold for $10,000 as a yearling)dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 4 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winner)dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Sugino Gaisenmon (in Japan)dam is a full sister to stakes-placed Muskie (29-4-4-3, $88,227, 2-10 in dirt sprints)trainer is 1-29 (3%) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-11, positive ROI in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)

Selections:
1. Brookes Valentine
2. Spin Move
3. Rated Fiesty

Analysis:
BROOKES VALENTINE caught the eye of the Keeneland clockers on April 15 as they noted that she was much better than Tigeroo, appears to be getting ready. Tigeroo is an unraced juvenile filly. One of Brookes Valentines workouts in Florida matched up with Readys Image, the winner of Fridays baby race. Brookes Valentines dam was very fast, and the combination of pedigree, workouts, and Todd Pletcher makes this filly one to watch.
SPIN MOVE is by one of the most underrated debut sires in the world, and the clockers noted that she outdueled My Privileged and Silver Breeze from the gate, both older horses, on April 11. Both of her workmates are unraced 3-year-old fillies. Spin Move figures to break quickly from the inside post, and this barn is excellent with firsters. RATED FIESTY goes out for the top Asmussen barn, and seems to be well-prepped. Her sire was a very quick runner. AMERICAN COUNTY made a nice wide move in her career debut after an awkward break. Experience counts in these races, and she is bred both sides for speed. KRISTAL SPARKLE finished evenly in her debut after a poor start.

The selection: Brookes Valentine to win at 2-1 odds or more

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 7-3-3 (+$9.20)