Keeneland Babies for 4/20

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Friday, April 20, 2007
Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Howboutthisdance (Harlans Holiday Da Dance, by Dayjur)
Trainer: Vickie Foley
Foaled April 29, 2005 in Kentucky$39,000 RNA short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $55,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006), $87,000 RNA juvenile (OBS February 2007)sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,362,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting)this is sires first starterdam was a stakes-placed sprinter (27-5-4-1, $56,632, 1-4 at two, won debut, 5-22 sprinting)this is dams first foaldam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Ice Skater (14-3-5-0, $58,497, 2-5 at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)trainer is 3-48 (6%, $2.02 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Little Nick (Tiger Ridge Hay Jude, by Wavering Monarch)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled May 5, 2005 in Floridasire was placed (5-0-1-1, $11,960, 0-1 sprinting)sire is 13-85 (15%) with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007dam was a winner (30-5-7-1, $113,152, all raced sprinting)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runnerssecond dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Linear (58-13-6-8, $489,919, 3-5 at two, won debut, 11-41 in dirt sprints)trainer is 24-178 (13%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 2 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby with Kent D., and Lasix on)trainer is 2-5 (40%, positive ROI) with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland over the past five years.

3. Stars Classic Cat (Star Programmer Toots Classic, by Well Decorated)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 9, 2005 in Kentuckysire was Group 3 stakes-placed on dirt in Japan (23-5-0-2), all wins sprinting, won on both turf and dirt)sire 2-39 (5%) with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007dam was a winner (14-1-2-2, $28,947, 1-12 sprinting)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runnersecond dam was a multiple stakes-winner (61-12-6-7, $114,538, 0-6 at two, 11-56 in dirt sprints)trainer is 1-27 (4%, $1.86 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-9, 11%, $5.58 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)March 13 workout matches barns juvenile Cape of Storms (finished third in debut on April 15)March 21 workout matches barns juvenile filly Little Springer (finished fourth in debut on 4/18), and The Wrecker.

4. Track Record (Elusive Quality Quick Lap, by Nicholas)
Trainer: Neil Howard
Foaled January 25, 2005 in Kentucky$120,000 yearling RNA (Keeneland September 2006)sire a multiple Grade 3 winner on grass (20-9-3-2, $413,284, 5-12 in dirt sprints)sire 25-138 (18%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners in 2007)dam was a multiple stakes-winner (23-5-6-5, $282,858, 3-8 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints, 4 wins on grass)dam has 4 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winnersdam a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Make Haste (15-6-3-0, $209,967, 2-2 at two, 5-10 in dirt sprints)trainer is 3-54 (6%, $0.59 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

5. Possetothemax (Posse Storm Witch, by Twining)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 10, 2005 in Kentuckysire a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $662,841, 2-7 at two, won debut, 7-17 in dirt sprints)sire is 0-4 with juvenile firstersbroodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this yeardam was a stakes-placed juvenile (16-2-5-3, $129,773, 1-3 at two, 2-13 in dirt sprints, sold for $4,000 as a yearling)this is dams first foaldam a half to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Sterling Cat (5-2-0-0, $95,427, 2-2 at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)trainer is over 20% from a 560+ horse sample (positive ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 5 debut winners this year, 2 Keeneland babies, both with Lasix, 1 for this owner)trainer 14 debut winners in 4.5 furlong baby races over the past five years (positive ROI)March 18, April 3 works match barns juvenile Hensley (finished fourth in debut on April 15)March 25, April 3, April 10 workout matches barns juvenile Lantana Mob (finished second in debut on April 12)April 3 work matches barns juvenile filly Predate (finished fith in debut on April 18).

6. The Wrecker (Came Home Cap Beino, by Lyphard)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled March 8, 2005 in Kentucky$52,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to stakes-winner Triviality (28-7-1-2, $61,892, 3-10 sprinting), and multiple stakes-placed Plum Red (37-3-4-7, $62,260, 1-3 at two, 1-10 sprinting)sire a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-9-0-0, $1,835,940, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-4 in dirt sprints)sire is 3-28 (11%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner in 2007)dam was a multiple stakes-winner on turf (9-3-2-0, $63,300, 0-3 at 2, all wins on turf)dam has 8 foals of racing age, 6 runners, 5 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winnersecond dam was Grade 1 winner Capades (27-11-9-2, $1,051,006, 2-9 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints, 9 wins on grass) trainer is 1-27 (4%, $1.86 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-9, 11%, $5.58 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland) March 21 workout matches barns juvenile filly Little Springer (finished fourth in debut on 4/18), and Stars Classic CatMarch 30 workout matches barns juvenile Cape of Storms (finished third in debut on April 15), and juvenile Bucky Came Home (finished ninth in debut on April 15).

7. Holidaze (Harlans Holiday Katilac Ofthestarts, by Katowice)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled April 9, 2005 in Kentucky$50,000 short yearling (Fasig-Tipton February 2006), $70,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006) sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,362,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting)this is sires second starterdam was a Grade 3 winner (5-4-0-0, $121,825, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints, sold for $5,398 as a yearling)sire has 6 foals of racing age, 4 runners, 4 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winnersdam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Universal Lad (65-18-10-8, $46,992, 1-4 at two, won debut, 18-62 in dirt sprints), and multiple stakes-winner Astro Beauty (22-14-3-2, $364,078, 3-5 at two, 6-11 in dirt sprints)dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Astro Force (36-8-7-4, $227,380, 2-4 at two, 6-25 in dirt sprints)trainer has over 97-400 (24%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 3 older debut winners this year, all with Lasix on)trainer is 10-26 (38%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

8. Gregorys Trick (Favorite Trick Blue Defense, by Defensive Play)
Trainer: Leroy Simon
Foaled April 16, 2005 in Florida$4,500 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005)sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (16-12-0-1, $1,726,793, 8-8 at two)sire 61-341 (18%) with juvenilesdam was stakes-placed (40-6-5-8, $79,685, 1-3 at 2, sold for $5,200 as yearling, $4,000 as juvenile)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runnerdam half to multiple route stakes-winner Alishas Favorite (18-4-4-1, $110,575, 0-1 at 2, all wins routing)trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles making second lifetime start.

9. Berrys Pride (Millennium Wind Berry Point, by Romeo)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled May 5, 2005 in Michigan1/2 to multiple stakes-winner Secret Romeo (55-23-16-3, $865,790)sire a Grade 1 winner (7-3-2-0, $769,920, 1-2 at 2)sire 13-78 (17%) with juvenilesdam a winner (21-3-3-3, $54,030, 0-1 at 2, all wins sprinting in the mud)dam has 6 foals of racing age, 6 runners, 4 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winnersdam a half to multiple stakes-winner Shake Rag Ruthie (14-7-1-2, $151,922, 0-2 at 2, 6 wins sprinting), and stakes-placed Alaura (27-7-3-5, $95,616, all wins sprinting) trainer is 7-64 (11%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles making second lifetime start (0-5 with second-time starters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

10. Mephistopheles (Devils Bag Gnite Sweetheart, by Stop the Music)
Trainer: Kevin Lynn
Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentuckysire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (9-8-0-0, $445,860, 5-5 at two, 5-5 in dirt sprints)sire 26-291 (9%) with juvenile firstersdam was a winner (8-1-0-0, $19,023, 1-6 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runnerthird dam was multiple stakes-placed (35-5-6-4, $25,945)trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

11. Readys Image (More Than Ready Clever Phrase, by Clever Trick)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled March 6, 2005 in Maryland$410,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to multiple stakes-placed turfer Yingyingying (13-0-5-4, $68,806, 0-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting)sire a Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two, won debut, 7-9 in dirt sprints)sire is 17-111 (15%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners in 2007)dam was a winner (31-3-6-3, $59,353, 1-4 at two, 3-26 at two, sold for $60,000 as a weanling, and for $60,000 as a yearling)dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runnersecond dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Seen and Silent (11-1-1-1, $8,460), multiple stakes-placed juvenile In Full View (19-4-3-4, $143,337, 3-4 at two, won debut, 3-13 in dirt sprints), and stakes-winner Squall Valley (16-6-3-0, $218,325, 2-3 at two, 5-12 in dirt sprints)second dam a full sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Overturned (17-5-5-0, $237,737, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints) trainer has over 97-400 (24%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 3 older debut winners this year, all with Velazquez aboard, and Lasix on)trainer is 10-26 (38%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

12. Black Limo (Black Minnaloushe Goodas I. Look, by Strodes Creek)
Trainer: Warren King
Foaled April 14, 2005 in Kentuckysire a multiple Group 1 route winner on turf in Europe (11-4-1-1, $490,945, 2-2 at two, 2-4 in sprints, all wins on grass)sire 3-60 (5%) with juvenile firstersdam was a winner (19-3-1-1, $86,252, 0-2 at two, all wins either on turf, or in routes, sold for $8,700 as a yearling, and for $27,000 as a juvenile)this is dams first foalsecond dam is a half-sister to multiple turf stakes-winner Val dEnchere (36-8-6-4, $231,609, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass), multiple stakes-winner Great Escape (40-10-7-6, $196,580, 1-4 at two, 4-13 in dirt sprints), turf stakes-winner Wavelength (53-8-8-12, $154,089, 0-2 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass), multiple stakes-winner Glaring (31-13-10-2, $445,585, 1-1 at two, 6-14 in dirt sprints), and stakes-placed Paragram (36-7-3-2, $276,537, 0-2 at two, 1-11 in dirt sprints)barn is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

Selections:
1. Readys Image
2. Possetothemax
3. Stars Classic Cat

Analysis:
READYS IMAGE looks like a promising firster from the powerful Pletcher barn. A $410,000 yearling buy, Readys Image has turned some heads in the mornings since arriving from Florida. On April 9, the Keeneland clockers noted that he gave a good effort from the gate, much better than Miss General. Miss General finished fourth after showing speed in her debut here the other day. More impressively, the comment for the April 15 workout revealed that Readys Image worked in company with Twilight Meteor, the younger horse more than held his own against the older horse. Twilight Meteor won the Bourbon over Polytrack last year, and added the Hallandale Beach Stakes to his resume earlier this season at Gulfstream. Readys Image must avoid a wide trip from an outside post, but should show enough speed to gain a good forward position.
POSSETOTHEMAX is bred for speed on both sides, and trainer Steve Asmussen has already sent out a pair of debut winners at this meet. STARS CLASSIC CAT seems well-prepped for his debut, and the barn has sent out some live firsters at a price in recent years. BERRYS PRIDE gained valuable experience in career debut when off slow, and wide in the stretch.
THE WRECKER is bred mostly for turf, but that may translate nicely to Polytrack. GREGORYS TRICK must impove off dull debut. HOLIDAZE hasnt impressed the Keeneland clockers. On April 4, then noted that Moroccan Affair was better than Holidaze at the finish. On April 15, Woodway was the better of Holidaze from the gate.

The wager: Readys Image to win at 2-1 or more.

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 6-2-2 (+$9.20)