Keeneland Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 9, 2013

Race 3

1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $58,000

1. LA MEJOR FIESTA (Harlan's Holiday - Better Now, by Thunder Gulch)
Although this stakes-placed filly lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in her last two sprints, she may appreciate this added distance as her dam won the Grade 3 Tempted on dirt at this trip and one half-sibling has prevailed at 1 1/16 miles; there doesn't appear to be much speed in this heat and capable apprentice rider may attempt to stay close to the expected moderate pace; according to the 9/29 Keeneland Clocker Report, Boom Boom Vroom (Ward 2yo with 33 dirt Beyer) "went sharply, a little stronger than La Mejor Fiesta."

2. QUEENIE'S SONG (Unbridled's Song - Queen of Money, by Corporate Report)
Sire 60-489 (12%) 1st-turf; dam won G3 on dirt (unraced turf) and has 2 turf winners from 4 turf runners (including 1 SP performer in France); flattered a bit when the runner-up returned to score on Tapeta with a 68 Beyer Speed Figure (20-point improvement); already proven at the distance, it will be interesting to see if she needs a bit more early pace to work with; prefer on bottom of exotics.

3. BE NICE OR LEAVE (Kitten's Joy - Speedy Sunrise, by Cherokee Run)
While this filly showed some heart in running down the 10-1 pacesetter in the stretch, it must be noted that the pace was very slow and that the pace horses ran 2-1 all the way around the track; perhaps Rosie will take advantage of a moderate pace scenario by placing this Kitten's Joy filly close to the lead once again; has some upside, but prefer others on top.

4. MRS. ASHER (Successful Appeal - Mary Dunn, by Exchange Rate)
Sire 22-184 (12%) 1st-turf; this is the 1st starter from the unraced dam; think this stretchout sprinter will be forwardly placed and she may outright have the lead going into the first turn; there are some distance and surface questions that she must address, but she has the mud as an excuse for her most recent race at Mountaineer; leaning elsewhere for top honors.

5. TOO COOL (Shakespeare - Radu Cool, by Carnivalay)
Hustled hard to obtain a forward position in the early stages and ended up tracking a pace dispute from the outside; struck the front with 2F remaining and dug in determinedly to repel the runner-up's late burst; bit disappointed that the 3rd-finisher could only muster a 4th-place finish as the chalk in a $50,000 MCL over polytrack on 10/4; still, this filly attracted the attention of a shrewd barn that doesn't claim many 2yos (0-1 past 5 years, 4-11 with all ages off claim on turf); respect.

6. STREET SAILING (Street Boss - Sailing Free, by Mizzen Mast)
Sire 9-41 (22%) 1st turf; unplaced dam (0-1 turf) has 1 turf winner from 1 turf performer; will forgive her last race as that was a tough spot against males; she has been forwardly placed going short over the Tapeta, is bred for this surface, and may wind up close to the pace; beat Cosmic Emergency (returned to score with 78 Beyer before running 3rd 9/8; taking wait-and-see approach.

7. FABULOUS MISS BEA (Bernstein - Fabulous Sun, by Maria's Mon)
Not sure if she beat much around 2 turns at Indiana Downs, but sure liked the way she settled manners in upper stretch; settled into a comfortable rhythm down the backstretch and collared the pacesetter on the turn; showed she has enough tactical speed to stay close to moderate splits; barn sent out 34-1 winner Gefest during spring meet (1-41 past 5 years KEE); capable.

8. AWESOME JILL (Pioneerof the Nile - Guculka Ksenya, by Lion Heart)
Sire 4-8 (50%) 1st-turf performers; dam was unplaced from two starts on grass in France and this is her first starter; 3rd-finisher from debut returned to place 3rd in MSW on dirt at CD (49 Beyer); barn 1-3 (33%, $2.66 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-turf; watching with interest.

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY)
1. Fabulous Miss Bea
2. Too Cool
3. La Mejor Fiesta

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY)
Fabulous Miss Bea to WIN at 7-2 odds or greater

Race 6
1 Mile (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. ENDURABLE (Spring At Last - See Moon, by Deputy Minister)
50K yearling; 1/2 turf SP Nault (90K, 1-4 at 2, 1-8 turf) by 8-47 (17%) 2yo FTS, 3-25 (12%) 1st-turf sire; dam won sprint (22K, 0-1 turf) with 5 winners from 7 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 2-5 with turfers); dam 1/2 G2 route SW Seattle Dawn (276K, 1-4 turf), G3 turf SP Lord Charmer (England, 149K, 5-19 turf), turf SW Island of Silver (England, 92K, 0-2 at 2, 4-11 turf), SW Truckee (221K, 0-2 turf); barn 0-10past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes; 5/21 work matches Prayer on a Wing (2nd FTS MSW dirt 49 Beyer CD 9/29); 6/11 work matches Yemanja (10th FTS MSW polytrack 11 Beyer WO 7/20); 6/29 work matches Downey Gap (2nd MSW polytrack 57 Beyer AP 7/26); 7/13, 8/4 works match Quasar Power (7th FTS MSW polytrack 41 Beyer WO 9/15); 7/19 work matches Spill (7th MSW turf 62 Beyer ELP 8/18); 10/3 work matches Sky High Lady (81 turf Beyer).

2. KWACHA (Exchange Rate - Zambia, by Theatrical)
1/2 multiple sprint SW La Wildcat (134K, 2-9 at 2, 0-2 turf), turf SW Extensive (201K, 0-2 at 2, 3-12 turf) by 143-897 (16%) 2yos, 160-1316 (12%) turf sire; unraced dam has 4 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 1-4 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SP Apak (235K, 2-5 at 2, 0-2 turf), turf SW Dynaman (128K, 5-13 turf); dam full G1 turf SP Adair (England, 86K, 1-1 at 2, 1-3 turf), G3 turf SP Cyclorama (108K, 1-1 at 2, 2-7 turf); barn 16-63 (25%, $2.22 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW turf route (0-5 at Keeneland); good effort 9/13 as sharp firster needed to go 23.01 final 1/4 to get him; expecting a decent trip from up close to the pace.

3. TIZ A STAR (Tiz Wonderful - Look Whos a Star, by Pollard's Vision)
30K yearling, 45K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 27-143 (19%) 2yos, 3-31 (10%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 SW New Haven (50K, 0-2 at 2, 4-21 turf), SW Hi Tech Honeycomb (278K, 2-5 at 2, 4-12 turf); barn 1-12 (8%, $0.88 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-turf (0-4 sprint/route); 9/28 work matches Queen Negwer (82 turf Beyer); although well-beaten 2 times, he faced a good field 9/1 (3rd-finisher Beyered 74 here Saturday); expecting improvement.

4. COV (Artie Schiller - Moon Orchid, by Malibu Moon)
Sire 31-282 (11%) 2yos, 18-145 (12%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 multiple G3 SW Hoovergetthekeys (406K, 1-5 at 2, 1-8 turf); barn 1-10 (10%, $1.88 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt/turf route adding Lasix; 9/14, 9/21 works match Ostentatious Me (49 dirt Beyer); 9/28 work matches Sheikinator (2nd FTS MSW polytrack 55 Beyer 10/4); 10/4 work matches Long Station (71 dirt Beyer); took cash for debut and carved out legitimate pace; expect speed again here.

5. MISTER BLUES (Mizzen Mast - Philadelphia Blues, by Wild Again)
1/2 sprint SP Sumneytown (160K, 1-2 at 2, 0-2 turf), G2 route SP Moyer's Pond (454K, 0-2 turf) by 70-609 (11%) 2yos, 32-278 (12%) 1st-turf sire; winning dam (61K) has 4 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-4 with turfers); dam 1/2 G3 route SP 2yo Solana (98K, 1-7 at 2), multiple 2yo SW Code Love (115K, 3-8 at 2, 1-4 turf, 1st-turf winner); barn 1-16 (6%, $0.41 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/turf (1-6 second-out); exits slow race won by colt that bombed in Sat. G1; has some turf pedigree.

6. RAGING MARKET (After Market - Stylish Mission, by Missionary Ridge)
1/2 sprint SW Anillo (113K, 1-6 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 28-188 (15%) 2yos, 241-1582 (15%) turf sire; sprint winner (132K, 0-3 turf) has 4 winners from 5 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 1-5 with turfers); dam full SW Missionary Monk (334K, 1-12 at 2, 0-3 turf); barn 3-21 (14%, $2.52 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf; broke well 9/7 and was outsprinted to excellent pocket spot inside; failed to parlay trip into top 3 finish, but seems to be moving right way; consider.

7. PERKY KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Love Runs Deep, by Not For Love)
Sire 35-201 (17%) 2yo FTS, 45-271 (17%) 1st-turf; sprint winner (17K) has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers); female family multiple G1 SW 2yo Storm Song (1.0M, 4-7 at 2, won debut); barn 3-18 (17%, $2.20 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route; 9/15 work matches Volcano Run (83 turf Beyer); 9/28 work matches Gung Ho (91 synthetic Beyer, entered R5); 10/5 work matches Rakete (74 synthetic Beyer, entered R4); 10/5 work matches Sense of a Woman (76 dirt Beyer); expecting a solid showing.

8. MYGALSAL (Street Boss - Hope's Diamond, by Louis Quatorze)
52K yearling; sire 30-167 (18%) 2yos, 31-133 (23%) turf sire; winning dam (69K) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Moonlight Affair (460K, 1-7 at 2, 1-2 turf); barn 1-11 (9%, $1.05 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf routes; may have moved a bit early when beating 2 of these 9/14; run down late by a promising colt.

9. KILTED COWBOY (More Than Ready - Incredible Story, by Seattle Slew)
110K short yearling; sire 46-401 (11%) 2yo FTS, 72-513 (14%) 1st-turf; dam won route (7K, 0-1 turf) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers); 2nd dam multiple turf SP Theatriken (France, 22K, 0-3 at 2, 1-9 turf); barn 1-7 (14%, $2.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS turf (0-4 route)

10. BOSS MAN MIKE (Street Boss - Hong Kong Jade, by Alysheba)
47K weanling, 50K yearling; 1/2 SP Peninsula (96K, 1-8 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 30-167 (18%) 2yo, 31-133 (23%) turf sire; dam won sprint (16K, 0-2 turf) with 6 winners from 10 runners (2-6 with 2yos, 1-7 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple G1 SW Rubiano (1.2M, 0-1 turf), 2yo sprint SW Tap Your Heels (47K, 1-5 at 2), G3 route SP High Cascade (180K, 1-4 at 2, 1-4 turf); barn 6-35 (17%, $1.42 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW turf route; contested a pace that got progressively faster after a tepid 1st quarter, but his pace rival (57-1 shot) continued on for 4th after he packed it in.

11. HIGH RANSOM (Hard Spun - Ruby's Realm, by Empire Maker)
400K yearling; sire 39-272 (14%) 2yos, 52-392 (13%) turf sire; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Sacred Song (England, 167K, 1-1 at 2, 4-8 at two), multiple G2 turf SW Strut the Stage (1.5M, 1-2 at 2, 10-28 turf); barn 6-55 (11%, $2.89 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW turf route (0-4 at Keeneland); faced strong field 8/18, but didn't do much running 9/14; must show more.

12. TROPIC OF ARTIE (Artie Schiller - Tropic Rhythm, by Dynaformer)
25K weanling, 110K yearling; sire 31-282 (11%) 2yos, 111-785 (14%) turf; dam placed turf (6K, 0-3 turf) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Sarava (1-5 at 2, 0-4 turf); barn 1-16 (6%, $0.60 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf MSW route; may have hung 8/24 after pinballing with 34-1 winner stretch drive; did best of 3 pace runners when facing impressive filly 9/14; drop helps this contender.

13. ARCH PLEASURE (Arch - Royal Pleasure, by Royal Academy)
Sire 15-182 (8%) 2yo FTS, 33-322 (10%) 1st-turf; multiple SW dam (365K, 0-1 at 2, 5-15 turf) has 0 winners from 1 runner; dam 1/2 G3 turf SP In Jest (39K, 1-2 on turf, 1st-turf winner); barn 2-21 (10%, $0.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route; 6/27, 7/25 works match Give No Quarter (2nd FTS MSW Tapeta 42 Beyer PID 8/15); 7/4 work matches Ring Weekend (5th FTS MSW dirt 56 Beyer SAR 8/31); 8/7 work matches All Inclusive (4th FTS MSW turf 62 Beyer DEL 8/21); 8/7 work matches Emotional Stroll (1st FTS MSW dirt 53 Beyer LRL 9/25); 8/7 work matches Pearl Turn (1st MSW dirt 70 Beyer DEL 9/5); 8/30 work matches Daddy in the Dark (69 turf Beyer); 9/26 work matches Queenie's Song (48 Beyer Tapeta, entered R3);

14. ARARAT (Aragorn - Jindy's Dream, by A.P. Indy)
20K yearling; sire 25-211 (12%) with 2yos, 10-93 (11%) 1st-turf; unplaced dam (0-2 at 2, 0-2 turf) has 1 winner from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers); 2nd dam multiple G2 sprint SW JJ'sdream (1.0M, 3-5 at 2, 0-2 turf); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yos dirt/turf; pressed next-out 64-Beyer grad Condo Closing before tiring behind next-out 50K SW Jessethemarine; perhaps some speed.

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Perky Kitten
2. Tiz a Star
3. Raging Market

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Perky Kitten to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater.

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Jessamine Stakes (G3)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $150,000

1. SHANON NICOLE (Majestic Warrior - Crafty Wac, by Patton)
Did some good things when graduating at Kentucky Downs; broke a beat slow and raced in and among horses for most of the way; altered course off heels in the upper straight and came with a determined run to take over with 2F remaining; seems to be moving the right way for high-percentage connections and may work out a good ground-saving, pace-tracking trip under Rosie.

2. COURTESAN (Street Sense - Lady Discreet, by Boundary)
Barn has sent out some live 2yos this year and this filly beat next-out winner Ketel Twist (67 Beyer dirt) at Saratoga; a bit disappointed that the 3rd-finisher was beaten here on Poly at 3/5 on Saturday; has a good amount of tactical speed and may sit a nice trip in the second flight behind what projects to be a solid pace.

3. KITTEN KABOODLE (Kitten's Joy - Easy Slam, by Grand Slam)
Perhaps unlikely in her two starts at Saratoga; well-bet for her debut, she ended up being steadied along the inside on the far turn; after splitting horses, she came with a good run to outfinish Candy Kitty; bobbled a couple of strides out of the gate 8/18 and then was in closest attendance to Candy Kitty as that one set a ridiculously slow pace; couldn't overcome that one's tactical advantage; contender.

4. ZIP ON (City Zip - Danse Kongo, by Petionville)
We'll find out a great deal about this filly; earned a big number at Kentucky Downs 2 weeks ago; zipped out to clear the field in the early stages, was passed in the upper straight by the favorite and battled back along the inside to rebuff that foe after being bumped several times in the stretch; she is surely fast out of the gate and could make the front here; distance is the question here (by City Zip out of 5.5F winner); factor.

5. PRETTY FANCY (Lemon Drop Kid - Deal of the Decade, by Tiznow)
She's shown some zip in both lifetime starts going short and figures to be close to the pace on the stretchout; will likely have to deal with the swift Zip On to her inside, however, and a prolonged battle could sap her stretch stamina; 3 fillies have come back from that 9/11 heat (no top-3 finishes, best Beyer 65)

6. ZINZAY (Smart Strike - Music Room, by Unbridled's Song)
Looked good winning 1st out at Saratoga; pulled a little bit going into the first turn, but soon settled into a tracking position; attacked on the final bend and got the better of odds-on favorite Hillhouse High after a prolonged stretch battle; 700K yearling is already proven at this distance and figures to work out a good trip tracking the early leaders; respect.

7. ACADEMIC PROBATION (Einstein - Dblsecretprobation, by Proud Citizen)
This filly showed some moxie by rallying from well off the pace to defeat nine others at Kentucky Downs; although this represents a good-sized hike up the class ladder, she should get a good amount of pace to attack from the back of the pack; needs a Beyer boost in order to topple this field.

8. CANDY KITTY (Lemon Drop Kid - Worthy Cat, by Tale of the Cat)
Scratched from Sunday's Miss Grillo at Belmont to await this; Pletcher-trained miss made an easy lead when defeating Kitten Kaboodle at Saratoga; boasts a similar profile as barn's Breeders' Futurity winner We Miss Artie (Spa maiden winner before being hung wide in 1st try against stakes competition) don't like that she hopped back to her left lead during the stretch of her last three starts.

9. RICHIES PARTY GIRL (Any Given Saturday - Very Special Lite, by Majestic Light)
Scratched from Friday's Alcibiades on Polytrack to await this; ran a fine race against decent competition in France; in her most recent start, she hesitated a bit coming out of the gate but soon found herself on the lead; turned back a pair of stiff challenges and got the head bob at the wire; may have to go faster in the early portion of this race, however, and the extra distance is a bit of a question; consider.

10. RUNWAY GIANT (Giant's Causeway - Costume Designer, by Capote)
Richies Party Girl had the run of the race on the lead 9/7 at CD, but this filly came with a determined late charge to miss in a true head-bob; acts like this distance will be right up her alley and a good pace should set her up nicely when the real running begins; not out of it.

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Zinzay
2. Zip On
3. Richies Party Girl
4. Kitten Kaboodle

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Zinzay - Zip On EXACTA
Zinzay - Richies Party Girl EXACTA