Keeneland Babies 2-year old picks and analysis for Oct. 6, 2013

Sunday, Oct. 6, 2013

Race 1
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $21.000

SELECTIONS:
1. Ichiban Warrior (POE)
2. Salute the L T J G (POE)
3. More Than Classic

THE PLAY:
Ramsey Entry - More Than Classic EXACTA
Ramsey Entry - Commander Luke EXACTA

Race 3
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $56,000

1. SLEW CITY PLEASURE (Slew City Slew - Doubleyourpleasure, by Double Negative)
1/2 sprint SW Sea of Pleasure (156K, 2-2 at 2, 3-13 sprint), G2 SW Withgreatpleasure (629K, 0-4 at 2, 1-12 sprint) by 32-406 (8%) 2yo FTS sire; SP dam (135K, 1-3 at 2, 4-22 sprint) has 4 winners from 4 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 4-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SP Go Chandler (278K, 20-102 sprint), multiple SW Christmas Friend (Panama); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.83 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic.

2. ADELLUSION (With Distinction - Starlet Note, by Notebook)
22K yearling; sire 75-582 (13%) 2yos; winning dam (50K, 1-12 sprint) has 4 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters: dam 1/2 multiple SW 2yo Nancy's Glitter (477K, 5-8 at 2, 4-13 sprint), SP sprinter Texas Voyager (61K, 1-5 sprint); barn 2-18 (11%, $0.36 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos synthetic sprint; broke slowly and saved ground at the back to the turn; eased out in midstretch, came with a good run and galloped out in front; contender.

3. IRELAND (Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird)
115K yearling; full G1 2yo sprint SW Dublin (438K, 2-5 at 2, 2-4 sprint); 1/2 G2 SP sprinter Mike's Classic (328K, 0-2 at 2, 12-39 sprint) by 49-480 (10%) 2yo sire; dam G1 sprint SW (716K, 12-23 sprint) with 9 winners from 12 runners (3-8 with 2yos, 7-12 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 Missy's Mirage (838K, 2-4 at 2, 12-24 sprint), multiple SW Joey's First Jove (309K, 1-2 at 2, 14-43 sprint); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic; chased Frizette entrant in career debut and faced 3 next-out winners on turf 8/21; well-bred filly must improve.

4. HOMESICK ANGEL (Divine Park - On the Menu, by Canadian Frontier)
260K yearling; sire 5-28 (18%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from sprint SW dam (164K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 4-9 sprint); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Check the Label (557K, 2-6 at 2, 0-1 sprint), multiple G1 route SW Include Me Out (956K, 0-1 at 2, 3-7 sprint); barn 1-25 (4%, $1.35 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW sprint; 8/3, 8/15, 8/24 works match Hadrian's Villa (FTS Sat. R3); 8/15, 9/7 works match Athenian Beauty (FTS Fri. R1); 8/24 work matches Peggy's a Ten (2nd 15K MCL 9/16 IND 45 Beyer); according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/29, she "continues a good work pattern."

5. DUCASA (Discreet Cat - Pacific Jewel, by Seeking the Gold)
19K RNA yearling; sire 14-97 (14%) 2yo FTS; dam won route (26K, 0-3 at 2, 0-6 sprint) with 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW 2yo sprinter Hidden City (146K, 2-4 at 2, 3-14 sprint); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.56 ROI) lifetime with FTS; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/28, she "went easily, much better than Naples Gold"; consider.

6. BRAD'S RUBY (Noonmark - Reddy for Rubys, by Precise End)
20K short yearling, 50K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire G3 SW sprinter (354K, 1-2 at 2, 4-17 sprint, 1-14 with 2yos); dam 2yo SW sprinter (106K, 1-3 at 2, 2-5 sprint) with 0 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); female family multiple 2yo SW sprinter Tempered Halo (277K, 4-5 at 2, 9-41 sprint); barn 4-23 (17%, $3.64 ROI) past 5 years dirt-synthetic (no 2yos); chased next-out Schuylerville winner in very fast MSW at CD; prefer on bottom of exotics.

7. BABY LIS (Ghostzapper - Liszy, by A.P. Indy)
27K short yearling; 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Plum Pretty (1.6M, 1-1 at 2, 1-2 sprint) by 49-265 (18%) 2yo sire; unplaced dam (0-1 sprint) has 2 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple 2yo sprint SW Gold Case (60K, 3-3 at 2, 3-3 sprint); barn 6-84 (7%, $0.34 ROI) past 5 years dirt-synthetic (0-8 with 2yos); dismissed at long odds for debut and only passed tired horses; prefer others.

8. READY PLAYER ONE (More Than Ready - Beau Dare, by Military)
155K weanling, 200K yearling; sire 46-401 (11%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (425K, 2-5 at 2, 2-7 sprint); dam full multiple turf SP Victoire Bataille (236K, 1-2 sprint), multiple SW Turfiste (241K, 1-6 at 2, 6-21 sprint); barn 3-21 (14%, $4.60 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint Keeneland; interesting.

9. UNION PRAYER (Dixie Union - Pleasant Lyrics, by Pleasant Tap)
57K weanling; sire 146-939 (16%) 2yos; SP dam (78K, 1-2 sprint) has 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos); dam 1/2 SP Lyrical Ghost (128K, 1-2 at 2, 2-10 sprint), SW Grand Prayer (145K, 0-2 at 2, 1-8 sprint), route SP Point Missed (56K, 0-1 sprint), G1 sprint SW Swagger Jack (460K, 1-3 sprint); dam full G3 SW Tap Dance (378K, 1-5 at 2, 2-3 sprint); barn 11-40 (28%, $2.61 ROI) past 5 years turf-synthetic (1-4 with 2yos); off slow and was 3-4 wide throughout in solid debut; capable.

10. TEPIN (Bernstein - Life Happened, by Stravinsky)
140K yearling; full G2 route SP Prime Cut (167K, 1-2 at 2, 1-3 sprint); 1/2 multiple G2 route SW Vyjack (552K, 2-2 at 2, 2-2 sprint) by 140-868 (16%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G3 sprint SW Disco Rico (507K, 2-3 at 2, 9-17 sprint); barn 3-11 (27%, $1.24 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-synthetic sprint; battled for lead 3 wide before tiring and finished ahead of next-out 78-Beyer grad Jubilant Vision; expect good speed; respect.

SELECTIONS:
1. Ready Player One
2. Addellusion
3. Ducasa

THE PLAY:
Ready Player One to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater.

Race 4
1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $58,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Heart to Heart
2. Here's Johnny
3. Belly of the Whale

THE PLAY:
Heart to Heart to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater

Race 5
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $56,000

1. MADER BY THE MINUTE (Don't Get Mad - My Girl Leggs', by Carborundum)
Sire 20-127 (16%) 2yo FTS; dam won route (64K, 1-9 at 2, 0-13 sprint) with 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); female family SW Mr. Murtaugh (238K, 1-1 at 2, 5-18 sprint); barn 1-46 (2%, $1.33 ROI) past 5 years; faltered after midrace bid on turf, but hasn't shown much spark on the surface; minor award could be her ceiling.

2. BELLA VELOCE (Zensational - Silver Impulse, by Silver Charm)
25K yearling, 32K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire multiple G1 sprint SW (669K, 0-1 at 2, 5-7 sprint, 3-23 with 2yo FTS); dam 2yo SW (357K, 2-7 at 2, 1-9 sprint) with 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 1-1 with sprinters in USA); dam 1/2 SW 2yo sprinter The Golden Noodle (144K, 1-6 at 2, 1-4 sprint); barn 1-21 (5%, $6.05 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS (0-1 synth); 8/12 work matches Housewife (5th FTS 50K MCL 9/15 CD 21 Beyer); 8/25 work matches Deemie (FTS Fri R1); 9/4 work matches Honored (6th FTS MSW 9/22 CD 39 Beyer); 9/22 work matches Truly Royal (9th FTS MSW 9/28 CD 33 Beyer); 9/22 work matches Right to Vote (94 dirt Beyer)

3. ZEN LAVA (Zensational - Chocolate Lava, by Orientate)
50K yearling; sire multiple G1 sprint SW (669K, 0-1 at 2, 5-7 sprint, 6-44 with 2yos); 1st starter from winning dam (134K, 0-1 at 2, 1-10 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW August Storm (189K, 3-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 2-15 (13%, $8.73 ROI) past 5 years turf-synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); broke well 9/11, but opted to track the pace from outside; finished evenly without threatening; perhaps more speed here? not out of it.

4. PIPER JADE (Harlan's Holiday - County Fair, by Mr. Prospector)
190K yearling; 1/2 turf SW 2yo Steaming Home (73K, 2-5 at 2, 0-7 sprint) by 45-304 (15%) 2yo FTS sire; unplaced dam (0-1 sprint) has 4 winners from 10 runners (1-7 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Drachma (240K, 1-8 at 2, 0-7 sprint), 2yo G2 turf SP Swiss Affair (England), G1 route SW Corporate Report (1.0M, 2-2 sprint); barn 2-35 (6%, $0.80 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW sprint Keeneland; 9/24, 9/30 works match Primmensity (FTS Fri R1)

5. FLASHY DIMONTINA (Flashy Bull - Dimontina, by Dixieland Band)
Sire 7-75 (9%) 2yo FTS; dam G3 SP sprinter (184K, 1-4 at 2, 3-24 sprint) with 3 winners from 7 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-7 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Perfect Soul (1.5M); barn 2-11 (18%, $3.49 ROI) past 5 years FTS synthetic (0-6 with 2yo).

6. PLEASE EXPLAIN (Curlin - Lizzy's Bluff, by Pine Bluff)
75K RNA yearling; 1/2 SP router Nicklaus Way (102K, 0-2 at 2, 2-2 sprint) by 18-135 (13%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Borrego (2.0M, 2-4 at 2); barn 9-34 (26%, $3.36 ROI) dirt-synthetic (3-4 with 2yos); far back early after awkward start, she came with a good late run to just miss over 2 next-out winners; contender.

7. SUPER SKY (Sky Mesa - Tortuga Lady, by Thunder Gulch)
80K yearling, 235K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 turf SW Dyna's Lassie (182K, 0-1 at 2), route SW Princess Arabella (188K, 1-1 at 2, 2-2 sprint), SP turf Cairo Six (48K, 1-5 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 111-601 (18%) 2yo sire; dam sprint winner (6K, 1-1 sprint) with 6 winners from 7 runners (3-5 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters); dam full multiple G1 SP router Invisible Ink (465K, 1-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple turf SP Inner Circle (163K, 0-1 at 2); barn 1-15 (7%, $0.55 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic; poor start cost her in debut and she had repelled 2 challenges before succumbing last time; dangerous.

8. HUNTING HILL (Hard Spun - Fircroft, by A.P. Indy)
Sire 39-271 (14%) 2yos; 2yo SW dam (318K, 2-5 at 2, 1-1 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); 3rd dam SW Shawnee Creek; female family multiple G1 SW North Sider (1.1M, 4-9 sprint); barn 4-10 (40%, $3.28 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic sprints; well behind Zen Lava in debut; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 10/1, she "was well reserved in her work, held the edge on Julies Jewelry."

9. LIGHT STRIKER (Afleet Alex - Lacie Girl, by Editor's Note)
37K RNA weanling, 19K RNA yearling, 80K 2yo after 2F work 21.3; 1/2 SW Lacie Slew (259K, 0-2 at 2, 2-9 sprint) by 49-480 (10%) 2yo sire; multiple SW dam (314K, 7-12 sprint) has 5 winners from 6 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 5-6 with sprinters); 3rd dam SW Lock's Dream (94K); barn 3-12 (25%, $2.68 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic; 2nd best 9/14 after being held up behind slow pace and was in behind horses turn; capable.

10. PALOMA P (Any Given Saturday - Peace Pledge, by Our Emblem)
105K RNA yearling; sire 8-82 (10%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from winning dam (165K, 4-25 sprint); dam 1/2 turf SP Yippety Yip (231K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-34 (3%, $0.58 ROI) synthetic (0-7 with 2yos).

SELECTIONS:
1. Super Sky
2. Light Striker
3. Zen Lava

THE PLAY:
Super Sky - Light Striker EXACTA
Super Sky - Zen Lava EXACTA

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Bourbon Stakes (G3)
2-year-olds
Purse $150,000

1. SCHOOL ON A HILL (Student Council - My Meggie Meg, by French Deputy)
Privately purchased by shrewd connections following rallying AP win over 2 next-out winners, but never got involved when facing impressive filly debuter My Conquestadory in the Summer (she runs Friday); Catalano put Lasix on 2yo Animal Kingdom at Keeneland in 2010 and the colt responded by graduating; late runner should get some pace, but may fit best on bottom of exotics.

2. TIGER BOURBON (Big Brown - Tigresa, by Tejano)
Handled Bashart and General Jack (next-out winner of 100K turf stake at Canterbury) in solid career debut and ran into a sharp speedster (set course record) most recently at Laurel; although he only finished evenly in lone route, he's bred to handle this distance (1/2 to 8F SW War Tigress by Derby and Preakness winner); may work out a nice pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Rosie; prefer on bottom of exotics.

3. ALL CASH (English Channel - Andover the Money, by Dynaformer)
Maiden is placed in an ambitious spot by Lukas; showed solid early speed in all 3 starts only to falter when the real racing began; not sure he's fast enough to grab the early advantage with some other quick ones entered to his outside and he's taking a huge class hike; finished ahead of next-out 75-Beyer winner 8/24, but prefer others.

4. SOLAR FLAIR (Sun King - Rock Creek Star, by Tricky Creek)
Sire 5-43 (12%) 1st-turf; sprint-placed dam went 0-4 on turf and is 0-1 with her turf progeny; Illinois-bred gets the toughest test of his career from a class and distance standpoint; has enough speed to be forwardly placed, but has lots of questions to answer.

5. BASHART (War Front - Busy Windsong, by Clever Trick)
Pletcher-trained colt hasn't been stopped since stretching out around two turns; took them gate-to-wire in the With Anticipation, but don't like that he hopped back to his left lead in midstretch and the turf courses at Saratoga played to speed later in the meet; still, this colt has shown versatility and may be in a good position just off the leaders; he's a logical contender, but demand value.

6. MANAUS (Stroll - Catch This Cat, by Cat Thief)
Already multiple stakes-placed, this colt knocked down the door in fast time at Kentucky Downs. Pressed the pace on the outside and drew clear nicely once given his cue; don't think he beat too much, however, as Valdinas Will, the pacesetter and beaten in upper stretch, held the rest off for second; there are some major distance questions he'll have to address, but has been nothing if not consistent; interesting at a price.

7. BOJI MOON (Cactus Ridge - Philadelphia Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Iowa-bred hasn't taken a deep breath just yet and like that he has gradually stepped up in distance without problem; sat off the early leader in his turf debut before blowing that one's doors off with eye-catching acceleration in midstretch; gets his 1st big test from a class and distance perspective, but the dam won at the trip; may be fast enough to make the lead and must be respected.

8. BON ACCORD (Showing Up - Best Regards, by Street Cry)
He was 46-1 odds when shocking 10 others in the Calder dash, but it's possible this son of turf-loving Showing Up is a new horse on the green; he did get a very good trip that afternoon as he tracked the leaders from a loose pocket and was able to secure a good seam when easing out in upper stretch; runner-up returned to win on dirt at GP, but only with a 57 Beyer; connections are asking a lot by stretching him out 3.5F this afternoon; not the worst longshot stab in a contentious race.

9. OOGELEY EYE (Afleet Alex - Flirting Glances, by Maria's Mon)
Sire 10-175 (6%) 1st-turfers; 1st starter from 1st-turf winner (31K, 1-6 turf); 2nd dam multiple turf SW Mingling Glances (410K, 2-2 at 2, 7-23 turf); according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/28, he "went well, in company with Eirigh and was slightly better at the finish"; Eirigh is a Romans-trained 2yo with a 46 turf Beyer; although the debut was a slow race, he chased a promising odds-on winner and rallied nicely along the rail late; in tough here.

10. POKER PLAYER (Harlan's Holiday - Revel in the Win, by Red Bullet)
This colt doesn't have much in the way of early speed and could be at the mercy of race and pace luck; it looked like there was no way he could win when the field turned into the long stretch at KD as he was so far back, but he came with a strong late run to get up despite lugging in; should be charging once again in the stretch, but needs a Beyer boost against these tougher foes.

11. WHYRUAWESOME (Whywhywhy - Awesome Frances, by Awesome Again)
Sire 11-149 (7%) 1st-turf; winning dam went 0-3 on turf and is 0-2 with her turf progeny; 2nd best behind the promising Solitary Ranger (entered Saturday) in the Arlington-Washington Futurity; cruised up along the inside on the turn and eased out to take his shot at the winner turning for home, but raced a bit greenly and was rebuffed; won debut in swift time over All of Us (next-out 71-Beyer grad at SA); capable with a late bid.

12. MEDAL COUNT (Dynaformer - Brisquette, by Unbridled's Song)
Sire 106-784 (14%) 1st-turf; G3 SP dam (216K, 2-7 turf, 1st-turf winner) has 0 turf winners from 2 turf starters; looked pretty good overcoming some adversity to win his maiden at Ellis Park, but it doesn't look like he beat the strongest field in the world and the race came back pretty slow; 360K yearling has upside potential and gets pace to attack, but the leap up in company may simply be too much of a mountain to climb.

13. CULPRIT (Street Sense - Caught in the Act, by A.P. Indy)
Sire 14-92 (15%) 1st-turf; unplaced dam (6K, 0-5 turf) has 0 turf winners from 2 turf runners; dam a full sister to Grade 3 SW Crowd Pleaser (605K, 2-4 at 2, 6-16 turf); got good learning debut on dirt; broke in slightly and raced in and among horses early; caught in tight upper stretch, but finished evenly and galloped out well once clear; tough spot against winners.

SELECTIONS:
1. Boji Moon
2. Bashart
3. Manaus

THE PLAY:
Boji Moon - Bashart EXACTA
Boji Moon - Manaus EXACTA