Keeneland Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 4, 2013

Race 1
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $21,000

1. DADDY'S PLEASURE (Scat Daddy - For My Pleasure, by Numerous)
20K RNA yearling is a half-brother to G2 SP router Crimson Knight (176K, 1-2 at 2, 3-13 sprinting on main) by 18-102 (18%) 2yo FTS sire; route winning dam (100K, 1-2 at 2, 0-11 sprinting on main) has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with main track sprinters in North America); dam 1/2 to G3 SP sprinter Morethanaprincess (74K); barn 1-9 (11%, $1.02 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic maiden sprints (0-4 in MCL); 8/10 workout matches E Pluribus (6th MSW turf 8/18 ELP 66 Beyer); 8/10 work matches Bye Love You (9th 7.5K 'n3L' claimer turf ELP 8/24 18 Beyer); 8/30 work matches Ain't She Classy (8th FTS 15K MCL dirt 9/27 CD 7 Beyer); 9/6 work matches Stash the Cat (2nd FTS 40K MCL dirt 9/20 CD 48 Beyer).

2. ATHENIAN BEAUTY (Corinthian - Im Out First, by Allen's Prospect)
11K yearling, 40K 2yo after 1F work in 10.3; 1/2 multiple 2yo sprint SW Im A Dixie Girl (167K, 3-9 at 2, 3-9 sprint), turf SW First Ascent (141K, 0-2 sprint) by 12-128 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; multiple SW dam (438K, 1-10 at 2, 1-22 main track sprint) has 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 3-7 main track sprinters); dam 1/2 route SW Zenith (205K, 0-3 at 2, 0-4 main track sprinters); barn 2-11 (18%, $3.70 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MCL sprint Keeneland); according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/28, "She is improving. better than Elemonate from the gate." Elemonate is unraced.

3. DON'T TELL ME NO (Borrego - Misti Moon, by Formal Dinner)
Sire 3-52 (6%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprint (13K, 2-6 sprint) with 4 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters); female family French turf SW Bon Appetit; barn 0-20 past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic maiden sprint.

4. DEEMIE (In Summation - Hail a Princess, by Hail the Ruckus)
15K yearling, 30K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 multiple SW All Hail Stormy (297K, 0-2 at 2, 5-29 sprint) by G1 SW sprinter (1.2M, 5-6 at 2, won FTS, 10-19 sprint, 1-14 with 2yo FTS); dam won route (39K, 0-2 at 2, 0-6 sprint) with 9 winners from 11 runners (1-6 with 2yos, 6-10 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Summer Prince (176K, 0-2 at 2, 5-40 sprint); barn 1-21 (5%, $6.05 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS (0-1 synthetic); 9/4 work matches Buck James (8th FTS 50K MCL dirt 9/20 CD 0 Beyer); 9/4 work matches Truly Royal (9th FTS MSW dirt 9/28 CD 33 Beyer); 9/8 work matches Annuity (4th FTS MSW dirt 9/27 CD 49 Beyer); 9/8 work matches Housewife (5th FTS 50K MCL dirt 9/15 CD 21 Beyer).

5. PRIMMENSITY (IRE) (Nayef - Diamond Dilemma, by Sinndar)
20K yearling by multiple Group 1 turf SW (3.5M, 2-2 at 2, this is 1st 2yo FTS in North America); unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple Grade/Group 2 turf SW Lisieux Rose (329K), Group 3 turf SP Utterly Heaven (62K); barn 1-9 (11%, $0.93 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MCL synthetic sprint; 8/31 work matches Ms. Jean Elizabeth (29 turf Beyer).

6. JOJO'S GAL (First Defence - Sand Gal, by Bertrando)
65K yearling by 9-83 (11%) 2yo sire; this is first starter from unraced dam; dam full G3 SP Imprimature (91K, 3-12 sprint) and 1/2 to turf SW Apasionata Sonata (155K, 0-3 sprint); barn 4-30 (13%, $1.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic; chased next-out Schuylerville winner (83 Beyer) in key debut, but threw in the towel very early after involved in pace dispute going long vs. males, flagging tail when whip urged; drop should help; capable, but demand value.

7. SEVEN POINT SIX (Tiz Wonderful - Seismic Shift, by Richter Scale)
Sire 13-62 (21%) 2yo FTS; first starter from 2yo FTS sprint winner (21K, 1-2 at 2, 1-5 sprint); female family of G2 SW Anet (1.1M, 2-4 at 2, 2-6 sprint); barn 0-6 past 5 years all 2yos.

8. ARAKSIA (Langfuhr - Stormy Sea, by Storm Cat)
Sire 184-1400 (13%) 2yos; dam placed sprinting (5K, 0-4 sprint) with 3 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 1-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 route SP Union City (183K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint) and full 2yo G2 SP Steady Cat (224K, 2-3 at 2, 5-18 sprint), 2yo SW sprinter Apollo Cat (161K, 2-7 at 2, 4-14 sprint), G3 SP router Ozzie Cat (127K, 1-7 at 2, 2-10 sprint); barn 0-8 past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic; last out, her first start since April, she broke on top, but was kept 3w on the 1st turn and never got involved vs. better rivals; gets much-needed drop and can improve with the last run under her belt; has some price potential.

9. SHEERED (Eddington - Sheerdoublebliss, by Artax)
5.5K RNA yearling; sire 52-423 (12%) 2yos; dam won route (35K, 0-9 at 2, 0-9 sprint) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 sprints); 3rd dam multiple G2 SW Luminaire (179K, 1-2 at 2); barn 2-6 (33%, $1.16 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic MCL sprint (0-2 at Keeneland); showed improved speed with Lasix, setting 3-ply pace along rail, but had no gas when set down turning for home; must improve.

10. STICKTHELANDING (Van Nistelrooy - Landing Card, by Press Card)
1.5K yearling; sire 46-427 (11%) 2yos; dam won turf (19K, 0-1 sprint) with 3 winners from 6 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Factotum (42K, 0-1 at 2, 1-7 sprint); barn 2-13 (15%, $1.56 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic sprint; think she faced a good one in Cosmic Emergency both outs at PID (78 Beyer winner at 1-10 on 8/20, SP vs. males 9/8); fits well, but needs Beyer boost.

11. MIDNIGHT ECLIPSE (Malibu Moon - Middleburg Mint, by No Armistice)
70K yearling, 65K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.2, 25K 2yo after 3F work 34; sire 195-1058 (18%) 2yos; this is first starter from sprint winner (28K, 2-13 sprint); dam 1/2 G1 SW sprinter Malibu Mint (723K, 5-18 sprint); barn 3-12 (25%, $2.25 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic MCL sprint (0-1 at Keeneland); looked pretty good turning for home on 8/30 at Arlington, but refused to switch leads until late and was leg-weary at the wire; looms strong pace challenger here.

12. U S DREAM (U S Ranger - Madeleine's Dream, by Theatrical)
19K RNA short yearling by multiple turf SW (481K, 3-3 at 2, 2-26 with 2yos); dam French G1 turf SW (214K, 2-2 at 2) with 3 winners from 5 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 French turf SW Ozal (95K, 1-3 at 2) and full G3 SW Miss Lenora (102K, 0-4 at 2); barn 1-3 (33%, $2.33 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic sprint (0-2 at Keeneland); got hooked up in a speed duel with a 7-2 shot (finished 4th) while in the 2 path, but hung in gamely over the testing KD turf; shouldn't be too far off the splits and must be respected.

SELECTIONS:
1. U S Dream
2. Araksia
3. Jojo's Gal

THE PLAY:
U S Dream - Araksia EXACTA
U S Dream - Jojo's Gal EXACTA

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Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. CULPRIT (Street Sense - Caught in the Act, by A.P. Indy)
70K yearling by 31-212 (15%) 2yo sire; unplaced dam (6K, 0-1 route) has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam full G3 SW Crowd Pleaser (605K, 2-4 at 2, 3-7 route); barn 1-5 (20%, $7.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-synthetic, sprint-route MSW (1-2, 50%, $18.50 ROI at Keeneland); received an excellent learning experience 9/7, racing in and among horses before splitting foes in midstretch; galloped out nicely after the fact and looms a contender.

1A. OOGELEY EYE (Afleet Alex - Flirting Glances, by Maria's Mon)
70K yearling by 49-480 (10%) 2yo sire; first starter from turf winner (31K, 0-1 route); 2nd dam is multiple turf SW Mingling Glances (410K, 0-2 at 2); barn 1-5 (20%, $7.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yo dirt-synthetic, sprint-route MSW (1-2, 50%, $18.50 ROI at Keeneland); although the debut was a slow race, he chased a promising odds-on winner and rallied nicely along the rail late; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/28, he "went well, in company with Eirigh and was slightly better at the finish." Eirigh, a 2yo maiden, has a 46 Beyer on turf; exotics factor.

2. THUNDERGRAM (Graeme Hall - Parental Uproar, by Future Storm)
95K yearling; 1/2 SW 2yo Drums of Thunder (221K, 4-8 at 2, 4-13 router) and full G3 SW router Hurricane Ike (589K, 1-5 at 2, 5-16 route) by 88-493 (18%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 3-3 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Lord Juban (178K, 2-5 at 2); barn 3-12 (25%, $1.14 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-synthetic; stayed on gamely to beat 2 of these despite racing 4-5 wide on the backstretch; logical off good debut.

3. STONECRUSHER (Birdstone - Ingot's Dance Away, by Gate Dancer)
57K yearling; 1/2 G3 SW Dance Away Capote (586K, 2-5 at 2, 4-13 route), 2yo SW Platinum Couple (260K, 2-5 at 2, 4-19 route), turf SP Cavan Thunder (88K, 0-3 at 2, 1-3 route) by 38-335 (11%) 2yo sire; dam placed at 2 (6K, 0-6 at 2, 0-4 route) with 8 winners from 10 runners (3-9 with 2yos, 7-8 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple G1 SW router Skip Away (9.6M, 1-6 at 2, 18-36 route); barn 4-15 (27%, $2.54 ROI) past 5 years dirt-synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); ran pretty well in both starts on turf and was completely overmatched in the Iroquois; bred to go long on the main, he looms an exotics threat.

4. DOBRA HISTORIA (Unbridled's Song - Miss Lodi, by Mr. Greeley)
145K RNA yearling by 155-891 (17%) 2yo sire; dam G3 SW (342K, 1-2 route) with 3 winners from 5 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers); 3rd dam SW Maytide (93K, 1-7 at 2); barn 1-2 (50%, $2.90) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-synthetic, sprint-route; don't be too discouraged about the debut as Mott rarely wins with 2yo FTS sprinters and the gray was 4 wide throughout; can improve; prefer 'underneath.'

5. SHEIKINATOR (Curlin - Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
150K yearling by 5-61 (8%) 2yo FTS sire; dam multiple 2yo SW sprinter (167K, 3-9 at 2, 0-2 route) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers); dam 1/2 turf SW First Ascent (141K, 0-2 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic route (0-4 at Keeneland); 8/23 work matches Flak (4th MSW turf 9/14 KD 65 Beyer); 9/7 work matches Arctic Slope (1st MSW dirt 9/14 CD 63 Beyer); 9/13 work matches Long Station (2nd MSW dirt 9/21 CD 71 Beyer); 9/28 work matches Cov (35 dirt Beyer);

6. DADDY'S KID (Scat Daddy - Snow Kid, by Lemon Drop Kid)
1/2 G3 turf SP Gefest (93K, 1-4 at 2, 2-6 route) by 53-307 (17%) 2yo sire; dam placed on turf at 2 (9K, 0-3 at 2, 0-1 route) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-2 with routers); dam 1/2 SP router Brady Baby (123K, 3-13 route), G1 sprint SW Morning Line (1.2M, 0-1 at 2, 4-12 routes); barn 0-8 past 5 years dirt-synthetic; excuse for debut as he caught slop, but now stretches out daunting 4 furlongs off layoff.

7. BOLD VISIONARY (Rockport Harbor - Freshwater Pearl, by Alzao)
40K yearling; 1/2 multiple turf SP Pure Incentive (112K, 1-3 at 2, 1-2 route) by 74-534 (14%) 2yo sire; dam 2yo turf SW (73K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 route) with 5 winners from 9 runners (2-7 with 2yos, 1-6 route); dam full G3 turf SW Alexis (351K, 0-1 route), 2yo turf SW Miss Helga (Ireland), G2 SW Golden Rock (Peru); barn 1-4 (25%, $1.65 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic MSW routes; prompted the pace from outside 9/14 and took over on final turn; hung in there before tiring inside final sixteenth; capable.

8. CANADIAN WINNER (Pulpit - Ms. Cornstalk, by Indian Charlie)
400K yearling; 1/2 multiple G3 SW Biofuel (781K, 2-5 at 2, 4-8 route), G3 SW sprinter Tu Endie Wei (528K, 3-4 at 2, 0-2 route) by 152-1002 (15%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-2 with routers); dam 1/2 G2 route SW Dansil (538K, 4-9 at 2, 2-8 route); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic sprint-route; despite a dreadful start 8/31, he finished ahead of next-out 77-Beyer performer Commanding Curve; gate issues are troubling.

SELECTIONS:
1. Thundergram
2. Culprit
3. Bold Visionary

THE PLAY:
Thundergram - Culprit (part of entry) EXACTA*
Thundergram - Bold Visionary EXACTA

*If Culprit scratches, substitute Thundergram - Stonecrusher EXACTA

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Race 9
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
The Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $400,000

1. DESIGNER LEGS (Graeme Hall - Elegant Designer, by Suave Prospect)
Promoted to first via disqualification in the Adirondack, a race in which the heavy favorite, Fiftyshadesofgold, had her share of trouble; didn't seem totally comfortable in the early stages of the sloppy Spinaway and was no match for the promising Sweet Reason; gets a big test trying two turns and polytrack for the 1st time, but may be a bit closer to the pace while saving valuable ground; demand value.

2. RICHIES PARTY GIRL (Any Given Saturday - Very Special Lite, by Majestic Light)
Ran a fine race against decent competition two back in France; in her most recent start, she hesitated a bit coming out of the gate but soon found herself on the lead; turned back a pair of stiff challenges and got the head bob at the wire; may have to go faster in the early portion of this race, however, and may find this extra distance somewhat testing; prefer on bottom of exotics.

3. SWEETSOUTHERNDAME (Colonel John - Southbound, by Southern Image)
Rallied widest in the Arlington-Washington Lassie over a one-turn mile at Arlington, but it must be noted that the pace was extremely fast that day and closers may have had a strong advantage; it wasn't that surprising that she ran her fastest race in the Lassie as her sire, Colonel John, was a very stout performer; more distance in a race full of pace seems like a recipe for a good performance; prefer 'underneath'

4. MARIA MARIA (Curlin - Hollow Miss, by With Approval)
May have been aided a bit by a speed-favoring track when winning her maiden, but was flattered when the second- and third-place finishers returned to graduate with 69 and 73 Beyers, respectively; favored in the Arlington-Washington Lassie, she settled near the back behind a strong pace and split horses on the turn to get into contention; was in behind a wall turning for home, but seemed reluctant to split rivals when a hole opened; think she has some talent, but prefer others on top this time.

5. PERSONAL DIARY (City Zip - Latest Scoop, by Tiznow)
Thought she ran a nice race on turf last time as she was outsprinted in the early going and had to alter course sharply to the outside after running up on heels turning into the straight; although never threatening the top two, she came with a good late run to pick up a minor award; she'll get some pace to attack in this spot, but will get a stern class test.

6. BATTLEFIELD ANGEL (Proud Citizen - Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)
For a horse that was up close to the pace in her first two starts, it's fair to say she was taken out of her game following an awkward start in the Arlington-Washington Lassie; trailed in the early going and followed Maria Maria on the turn; was stopped in traffic in upper stretch and tired after failing to change leads inside the final eighth; expect her to be much closer to the front this time around; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/27, she "was not asked for run during the work, galloped out well (1:12/3)": dam won twice at the trip, but distance still a slight concern.

7. MY CONQUESTADORY (Artie Schiller - Golden Artemis, by Malibu Moon)
Burst onto the national scene by defeating males 1st-out in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes around a one-turn mile on turf at Woodbine; worked out an excellent trip tracking the pace along the inside on the backstretch before gradually working her way out 3 wide turning for home; looked strong in the stretch and earned an excellent Beyer; tries two turns and polytrack here, but has good tactical speed and should get pace to attack; dangerous off sharp debut.

8. LIL HONEY BADGER (Flatter - Legendary Lady, by Virginia Rapids)
Not sure she beat much sprinting on dirt at Indiana and has surface, distance and class concerns to address here; beat the gate at Indiana, but figures to face a whole lot more pressure if she attempts those tactics in here; dam was a pure sprinter so the distance is somewhat concerning; quality barn shows confidence by choosing this spot, but taking a wait-and-see approach for now.

9. HARLAN'S SPECIAL (Harlan's Holiday - Special Brush, by Broad Brush)
Although she's finished behind Rosalind twice, the feeling is that she's rounding into form at the right time; covered a lot of ground at CD on 9/20 as she was five wide on the first turn and four wide behind moderate splits on the backstretch; made an early bid to challenge the odds-on pacesetter on the final bend and had that one's number turning for home; veered in greenly when smacked right-handed in upper stretch and the stewards took her down; showed that distance won't be a problem and it appears she'll get pace to chase; barn 4-15 (27%, $2.54) past five years going dirt-synthetic; not out of it.

10. SHE'S OFFLEE GOOD (Offlee Wild - La Belle, by Dixie Union)
She's shown admirable versatility in both polytrack starts at Arlington; pressed the pace en route to a debut score over three next-out winners and took advantage of hot splits to run down the speeds in the Lassie; there should be ample pace for her to track in the Alcibiades and the extra distance shouldn't be an issue; professional filly can't be ignored.

11. WHO'S IN TOWN (Speightstown - Who's Cozy, by Cozzene)
Swift filly was slapped by the stewards in the Adirondack after setting the splits over a speed-favoring track; continues to work quickly for quality barn and may be the proverbial "speed of the speed"; will probably have to motor if she is to make the front and the distance could prove demanding; know her early, but think the combination of trip and other speeds may doom her to a minor award.

12. ROSALIND (Broken Vow - Critics Acclaim, by Theatrical)
It looked like this filly was being outrun on the final turn of the Pocahontas, but she kicked it in late to finish a rallying third and galloped out nicely after the fact; adds Lasix for barn that has four placings from five 1st-Lasix users in graded stakes over the past five years; has strong turf pedigree and that may translate very well to polytrack; late kicker should get the proper pace scenario and must be respected.

13. RUSSIAN NIGHT (Midnight Lute - At Night, by Dayjur)
Hopped at the start of her debut, looked very green going into the 1st turn and never picked up her feet at long odds vs. maidens; needs immense improvement in order to threaten these tougher rivals; according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for 9/29, she "was going strongly at the wire"; hard to endorse

SELECTIONS:
1. Rosalind
2. My Conquestadory
3. Harlan's Special

THE PLAY:
Rosalind to WIN and PLACE at 4-1 odds or greater.