Keeneland Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 20, 2013

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $21,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Mad Princess
2. Stickthelanding
3. Free Release

THE PLAY:
Mad Princess to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater.

Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. RANKHASPRIVILEGES (Einstein - Scrape, by Mr. Prospector)
33K yearling; sire multiple G1 SW ($2.9M, 4-11 route, 2-10 with 2yo FTS); placed dam (18K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 route) has 4 winners from 7 runners (0-5 with 2yos, 2-5 with routers); dam full multiple G1 SW Forty Niner ($2.7M, 5-6 at 2, won debut, 7-13 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW route; 9/20, 9/26 works match Sheriff Curly (FTS - R5).

2. EIRIGH (More Than Ready - Pleasant N Low, by Pleasant Tap)
100K yearling; sire 179-1214 (15%) 2yos ; unraced dam has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam 1/2 SW Whiskey and Low (146K, 1-1 at 2, 1-3 route); barn 3-10 (30%, $4.66 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; chased G1 Breeders' Futurity winner slow maiden heat 8/11; 9/28 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he was slightly outworked by Oogeley Eye.

3. REACH FOR A KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Reachinforthestars, by Grand Slam)
49K RNA yearling; full G1 SW Admiral Kitten (559K, 2-2 at 2, 1-2 route) by 35-204 (17%) 2yo FTS sire; turf winner (45K, 1-4 at 2) has 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, won debut, 1-1 with router); female family G1 turf SW Cozzene (978K, 0-2 route); barn 7-23 (30%, $1.65 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic (2-7 routes); 9/23, 9/30 works match Murmure (5th MSW turf 54 Beyer GP 10/12); 10/7 work matches Salto (1st ANC turf 97 Beyer GP 10/13); 10/14 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "was not under pressure, easily better than Rumblefortheroses"; interesting.

4. APACHE PARK (Candy Ride - Turn Away, by Empire Maker)
Sire 93-558 (17%) 2yos; 1st starter from SW dam (185K, 1-2 at 2, 1-3 route); dam 1/2 turf SP Acerbic (France), turf SW Averted View (England), 2yo turf SP Avoidance (England); dam full route SP Acronym (159K, 0-1 at 2, 2-6 route); barn 3-15 (20%, $1.72 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; faced 3 next-out winners including G3 Bourbon hero Poker Player.

5. RING WEEKEND (Tapit - Free the Magic, by Cryptoclearance)
310K yearling; 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Bamboo (73K, 2-6 at 2, 0-1 route) by 116-775 (15%) 2yo sire; multiple SP dam (78K, 2-3 at 2, 0-3 route) has 5 winners from 6 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 1-4 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Three Generations (242K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 route), 2yo G2 turf SW Forest Wind (163K, 2-3 at 2); dam full SW Flash of Joy (254K, 0-1 at 2, 8-33 route); barn 2-11 (18%, $1.00 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; off beat slow 9/21, made 4w bid FT before tiring; 10/12 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he was slightly outworked by Lemon de Oro; capable.

6. SKESTOS (Bob and John - Miss Carrera, by Memo)
14K RNA weanling; sire 25-210 (12%) 2yos; sprint winner (36K, 0-1 route) has 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with router); dam 1/2 multiple G1 SW Gourmet Girl ($1.2M, 2-3 at 2, 6-17 route), 2yo G1 SP Northern Mischief (123K, 1-5 at 2, 1-5 route), 2yo G3 turf SP Marfach (Ireland); barn 0-2 past 5 years dirt/synthetic (Schu saddles while Gorder is suspended); not much in weak IND heat.

7. THUNDER RUN (Colonel John - La Defense, by Wild Again)
150K weanling, 250K yearling, 150K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; 1/2 sprint SW Quelle Surprise (141K, 0-3 route) by multiple G1 SW ($1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 4-11 route, 7-47 with 2yos); sprint winner (71K, 0-1 at 2) has 4 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with routers); dam 1/2 sprint SP Iman (53K, 1-1 route), route SP Jour de Fete (87K, 1-4 at 2, 3-12 route), G3 SP Mille Feville (280K, 2-3 at 2, 0-2 route), G3 turf SW Noisette (485K), multiple sprint SW Roi Maudit (196K); barn 4-11 (36%, $3.16 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic 31-60 layoff; off slow, contested pace 3w in good effort 9/7 behind heavy chalk; contender.

8. POLISH COWBOY (Mineshaft - Spring Tide, by Unbridled's Song)
17K yearling; sire 62-448 (14%) 2yos; dam won route (35K, 0-1 at 2, 1-3 route) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers); dam 1/2 G3 SW 2yo Mr. Sea Sanders (112K, 2-3 at 2, 2-20 route), G3 SP Delightful Bet (101K, 3-16 route), 2yo G2 SW sprinter Old Tascosa (393K, 3-9 at 2, 0-4 route), SW Lights On (216K, 0-3 at 2, 1-7 routes); barn 0-12 past 5 years 2yos sprint/route synthetic; dull at long odds 10/5.

SELECTIONS:
1. Thunder Run
2. Ring Weekend
3. Reach for a Kitten

THE PLAY:
Thunder Run - Ring Weekend EXACTA
Thunder Run - Reach for a Kitten EXACTA

Race 5

1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. DIVINE ENERGY (Tapit - Pure Symmetry, by Storm Cat)
390K yearling; sire 116-775 (15%) 2yo; dam placed sprinting at 2 (14K, 0-6 at 2, 0-1 route) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Serena's Tune (337K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 route), SP Arbitrate (195K, 0-2 at 2, 4-24 route), G2 route SW Harlington (370K, 1-1 at 2, 6-10 route); dam full G1 turf SW Sophisticat (443K, 1-8 at 2, 0-1 route), G2 route SW Grand Reward (545K, 1-4 at 2, 2-7 route), G3 turf SW Schramsberg (394K, 2-10 route); barn 3-14 (21%, $1.30 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; pressed 3-ply pace outside 9/14, but couldn't get by longshot; 10/14 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "good finish, a length better than King Cyrus at the wire"; strong pace threat.

2. FORD'S ON FIRE (Dixie Union - Hot Attraction, by Pulpit)
80K RNA yearling; sire 147-945 (16%) 2yos; dam G2 sprint SP (149K, 1-2 at 2, 0-4 route) with 2 winners from 4 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 0-1 with router); dam 1/2 G2 turf SW Pays to Dream (377K, 0-1 route), route SW Pumpkin Shell (131K, 1-5 at 2, 2-8 route); barn 5-23 (22%, $2.64 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (3-6 with 2yos); exits faster division MSW (runner-up won here 82 Beyer).

3. SHERIFF CURLY (Curlin - Love You Madly, by Partner's Hero)
55K yearling; sire 6-66 (9%) 2yo FTS; SW dam (160K, 1-3 at 2, 0-3 route) has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-1 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Aggadan (860K, 5-21 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW route; 9/20, 9/26 works match Rankhasprivileges (FTS - R3).

4. HARBOR BOUND (Rockport Harbor - Sequoia Queen, by Forestry)
42K yearling by 75-544 (14%) 2yo sire; dam won sprint (77K) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with router); 2nd dam multiple SW Barefoot Dyana (432K, 3-10 at 2, 8-29 route); barn 0-22 past 5 years 2yos synthetic; off slow 10/5, made solid 4w bid for 2nd; 10/10 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "was not asked for effort, in front of Contributor at the wire, went on out willingly"; respect.

5. MALIBU BLUES (Malibu Moon - Cozy Blues, by Cure the Blues)
1/2 multiple SP sprint Jacob's Run (205K) by 198-1065 (19%) 2yo sire; G3 SW dam (365K, 0-2 at 2, 1-5 route) with 4 winners from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with router); female family 2yo G2 sprint SW Mayanesian (277K); barn 3-10 (30%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic); none of the 4 next-out runners from the 9/13 heat finished better than fifth.

6. FANTASTIC VOW (Broken Vow - Fantastic Shirl, by Fantastic Light)
150K yearling; 1/2 G3 SP 2yo turf Fantastic Song (113K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 0-1 route), turf SP Magnificent Shirl (84K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 route); sire 38-336 (11%) 2yo FTS; dam turf SW (251K, 0-1 route) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, won debut, 0-2 with routers); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Winning Talk (113K, 1-3 at 2, won debut), multiple G1 turf SW Shakespeare ($1.2M), G2 turf SW Lady Shakespeare (495K, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 1-1 route), G1 turf SW Perfect Shirl ($1.3M, 1-4 route); barn 1-35 (3%, $0.57 ROI) past 5 years synthetic; 8/3 work matches Paloma P (9th FTS MSW polytrack 17 Beyer KEE 10/6); 8/12 work matches Betises de Cambrai (6th AN1X dirt 26 Beyer TDN 8/18); 8/30 work matches Dancingwiththeboss (9th FTS MSW dirt 0 Beyer MNR 9/1); 10/6 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "was going well from the gate, better than Not A Wallflower."

7. DYNAMIC IMPACT (Tiznow - Featherbed, by Smart Strike)
125K yearling; sire 100-752 (13%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint SW (227K, 1-3 at 2); dam 1/2 G3 SP Little Cliff (202K, 2-4 at 2, 3-21 route), route SP Dynamical (115K, 0-1 at 2, 1-8 route); barn 5-15 (33%, $1.66 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt/synthetic (0-2 sprint/route); poor start, good wide move turn, raced greenly in stretch vs. good field CD; consider.

8. SIGNATURE SEVEN (Zensational - Disrupt, by Deputy Minister)
57K yearling; 1/2 sprint SP Disruption (56K, 0-3 at 2) by multiple G1 sprint SW (669K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 route, 3-24 with FTS 2yo); route winner (49K, 1-3 route) has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos); 2nd dam multiple G1 SW Dispute ($1.1M, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 7-14 route); barn 1-10 (10%, $2.98 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW route; 9/21, 9/27, 10/10 works match Royale Sky (FTS FRI. R5).

SELECTIONS:
1. Harbor Bound
2. Divine Energy
3. Dynamic Impact

THE PLAY:
Harbor Bound - Divine Energy EXACTA
Harbor Bound - Dynamic Impact EXACTA

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-olds
Purse $58,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Tashir
2. Matuszak
3. Rope a Dope

THE PLAY:
Tashir to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater.