Keeneland Babies: 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 19

RACE 7

1. Azha

(Tapit - Alyssum, by Storm Cat) Sire 116-775 (15%) 2yos; sprint SW dam (190K, 1-2 at 2, 5-8 sprint) has 4 winners from 6 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 3-6 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Destiny Dance (96K, xxx), SW Aurora (285K, 3-6 sprint), 2yo SW Yamanin Paradise (1.4M, Japan); barn 0-18 past 5 years 2yos synthetic; missed break both outs; very green 10/5 as rank on lead before tiring; too early to give up on this pedigree; can improve here.

2. Lady Marian

(Candy Ride - Fine Line, by Mineshaft)

Sire 26-183 (14%) 2yo FTS; dam won route (31K, 0-2 sprint) has 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Full Mandate (192K, 0-2 at 2, 1-2 sprint), multiple G3 route SW Newfoundland (677K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint), multiple 2yo G2 turf SP The Mighty Tiger (65K, 1-4 at 2), 2yo G1 sprint SW Strong Mandate (232K, 2-4 at 2, 2-3 at 2); barn 4-35 (11%, $2.30 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic MSW sprint; 9/28 work matches Pretty Fancy (9th G3 Jessamine turf 59 Beyer KEE 10/9); 10/5 work matches Trytoloveagain (10th FTS MSW turf 37 Beyer KD 9/25)

3. Lelanda

(Bernardini - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) 390K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 G2 route SP News Pending (129K, 1-5 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 36-268 (13%) 2yo sire; turf winner (56K, 0-1 sprint) has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 sprint SW Adore the Gold (239K, 3-4 at 2, 3-9 sprint); barn 17-47 (36%, $2.42 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (1-2 with 2yos); seemed bit green on turn after being outsprinted and rallied belatedly vs. weak field at Delaware; 10/8 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "broke 2 lengths behind Emperesse and Collide and easily moved to the front in the stretch"; 10/15 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "started 3-4 lengths behind Collide and easily galloped by the one in the stretch".

4. Altagracia

(Flatter - Sally J, by Concorde's Tune) Sire 100-648 (15%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo sprint-placed dam (17K, 0-3 at 2, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 sprint SP Glickman (95K, 2-8 sprint), 2yo sprint SP Impossible Mary (46K, 1-2 at 2, 1-2 sprint); barn 4-22 (18%, $1.56 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (1-5 with 2yos); off slow then bit green on turn before even finish outside; not out of it.

5. Tiz Windy

(Tiznow - Windyindy, by A.P. Indy) Sire 100-752 (13%) 2yos; 1st starter from route winner (119K, 0-3 at 2, 0-9 sprint); 2nd dam SW Unbridled Wind (135K, 0-3 at 2, 1-5 sprint); barn 0-15 past 5 years dirt/synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); useful debut effort as far back behind moderate pace before rallying belatedly in the stretch; expecting a solid showing.

6. Darby Doll

(D'wildcat - Silver Shannon, by Pentelicus) 27K RNA yearling; full sprint SW D'honorable One (100K, 1-3 at 2, 4-9 sprint) by 90-640 (14%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); dam full multiple G2 route SP Pat N Jac (257K, 2-5 at 2, 4-19 sprint); barn 18-171 (11%, $1.43 ROI) past 5 years synthetic (0-5 with 2yos); 5th-finisher 9/17 won Ohio-bred stake 54 Beyer 10/12; must do more.

7. Auriferous

(Bernardini - Golden Temper, by Forty Niner) 150K yearling, 150K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 14-115 (12%) 2yo FTS; G3 SW dam (347K, 1-3 at 2, 2-6 sprint) has 4 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, won debut, 3-4 with sprinters); female family G1 turf SW Ivyanna (Italy); barn 0-7 past 5 years synthetic North America.

8. Party Now

(Tiznow - Search Party, by Seeking the Gold) 1/2 multiple G3 SW Criminologist (554K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint), G2 turf SW Rescue Squad (218K, 1-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 22-307 (7%) 2yo FTS sire; G3 SP dam (258K, 0-2 at 2, 0-4 sprint) has 4 winners from 7 runners (1-6 with 2yos, won debut, 0-6 with sprinters);

dam full multiple G3 SP Manoa (262K, 0-5 sprint); dam 1/2 G2 route SP 2yo Proxy Statement (105K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint); barn 19-97 (20%, $1.64 ROI) past 5 years synthetic (1-5 with 2yos, 1st 2yo FTS).

9. Poppy’s Dream

(Broken Vow - Klondike Hills, by Deputy Minister) 37K yearling; sire 38-336 (11%) 2yo FTS; unplaced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinter); dam 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Sacred Song (England), multiple G2 turf SW Strut the Stage ($1.5M, 1-23 at 2, won debut); barn 3-39 (8%, $0.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/23, 8/30, 9/6, 9/14 works match Piper Jade (5th FTS MSW polytrack 37 Beyer KEE 10/6); 9/30 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "in company with Shakin Sugar, went nicely under control and was much stronger on the gallop out"; 10/8 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he was outworked by Shakin Sugar; 10/14 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he was outworked by Scatman Blues

10. Emma Lushka

(Pioneerof the Nile - Legendary Stacey, by Include) Sire 9-47 (19%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo sprint winner (24K, 1-3 at 2, 1-3 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple sprint SP Matter of Law (149K, 1-7 at 2, 2-11 sprint); barn 1-33 (3%, $0.40 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (1-7 second-out); must improve.

11. Lemon de Oro

(Lemon Drop Kid - Estrella de Oro, by Belong to Me) 65K RNA yearling; sire 98-730 (13%) 2yo; dam placed sprint (36K, 0-10 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Chelsey Flower (568K, 2-5 at 2, 0-2 sprint), SW router Key Guy (145K, 1-4 at 2, 0-3 sprint); barn 4-16 (25%, $1.38 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; made lead after 5F 9/13, but tired very badly stretch; 10/12 Keeneland Clocker Report notes "strong head up effort with Ring Weekend and was a shade the better of the two"; capable with Lasix.

12. Easy Chair

(Tiznow - Maple Syrple, by American Chance) 1/2 G3 turf SW Golden Century (76K, 1-1 at 2), multiple sprint SW Maple Forest (275K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 5-13 sprint) by 22-307 (7%) 2yo FTS sire; 2yo sprint SW dam (170K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 2-5 sprint) has 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 1-2 with sprinters); 2nd dam 2yo SP Sweet and Lowdown (179K, 2-7 at 2, 6-28 sprint); barn 4-15 (27%, $1.08 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/23 work went .01 slower than Gloria Victoria (69 dirt Beyer); 10/13 Keeneland Clocker Report noted he was outworked by Baby Titan; respect.

Selections:

1. Lemon de Oro

2. Tiz Windy

3. Easy Chair

The Play:

Lemon de Oro to win at 7-2 odds or greater.