Keeneland Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 18, 2013

Friday, October 18, 2013

Race 3
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $19,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Kitchen Police
2. Forfeit
3. Blackout

THE PLAY:
Kitchen Police - Forfeit EXACTA
Kitchen Police - Blackout EXACTA

Race 5
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. AWESOME SKY (Sky Mesa - To Dream About, by Monarchos)
Full G3 SP Sky Dreamer (176K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 0-2 sprint) by 35-214 (16%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, FTS winner, 1-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 route SP Dr. Pleasure (402K, 1-3 at 2, won debut, 1-3 sprint); barn 17-129 (13%, $1.35 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; interesting.

2. BRO RODRIGEAUX (Tale of the Cat - Com Easy, by Halo's Image)
60K RNA yearling; sire 261-1437 (18%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint winner (64K, 1-1 at 2, 1-4 sprint); 2nd dam is 2yo SW sprinter Yasou Kayla (52K, 2-5 at 2, 5-9 sprint); barn 1-33 (3%, $0.40 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (1-5 with 2nd-out 2yos); hopped back to left lead late after game 4th in hot race (winner returned to finish 2nd G1 Champagne, 2nd- and 3rd-finishers came back to graduate with 85 and 77 Beyers); factor.

3. NIGHT LEAGUE (Malibu Moon - Satin Aurelia, by Menifee)
125K yearling; sire 198-1065 (19%) 2yos; dam placed sprint (14K, 0-4 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos); dam 1/2 G3 SW French Satin (165K, 2-4 at 2, 2-7 sprint), multiple G1 route SW Lion Heart ($1.3M, 3-3 at 2, 2-2 sprint), G3 route SW Connemara (205K, 2-2 at 2); barn 5-18 (28%, $1.71 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (3-8 with 2nd-out 2yos); good learning run as he tracked pace in behind horses; perhaps more speed from this contender.

4. MATCH UP (Broken Vow - Change Up, by Distorted Humor)
Sire 38-336 (11%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo G3 SW (375K, 3-6 at 2, 3-11 sprint) with 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with sprinters); 2nd dam 2yo sprint SW Round Robin (86K, 2-5 at 2, 2-10 sprint); barn 1-15 (7%, $3.53 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic (1-9 FTS).

5. MALIBU HEIR (Malibu Moon - Proud Heiress, by Broken Vow)
60K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 198-1065 (19%) 2yos; 1st starter from G3 sprint SW (304K, 5-19 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple SW Red Chili Pepper (Japan); barn 6-17 (35%, $3.08 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; no chance debut after poor start; 2nd-best to good-looking firster after pace try 9/30; expect speed from this exotics factor.

6. BABY TITAN (Colonel John - Rainbow Girl, by Conquistador Cielo)
90K RNA weanling, 70K yearling, 200K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; by 1st-crop sire (multiple G1 route SW, $1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 1-3 sprint, 3-18 with 2yo FTS); dam won sprint (18K, 1-6 sprint) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Mighty Martha (103K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 2-2 sprint); barn 4-15 (27%, $1.08 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/18 work matches Ackerman Road (2nd FTS MSW dirt 76 Beyer 10/12 BEL); 10/13 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he "finished well, much better than Easy Chair"; 8/25 work went .05 slower than Murmure (5th MSW turf 54 Beyer GP 10/12); 9/2 work matches Flatbow (3rd FTS MSW dirt 49 Beyer 10/13 BEL); 9/19 work went .02 slower than Intense Holiday (5th G1 Champagne dirt 77 Beyer 10/5 BEL); capable.

7. MENDOTA (Grand Slam - Lilly Ladue, by Chief Three Sox)
30K short yearling, 50K yearling; sire 215-1307 (16%) 2yos; SW dam (117K, 2-5 at 2, 1-3 sprint) with 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Lucifer's Stone (405K, 1-4 at 2); barn 2-27 (7%, $1.13 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic (1-7 with 2nd-out 2yos); took cash for debut, but was no match for 90-Beyer winner; 3rd-finisher ran 2nd here 10/11 (68 Beyer).

8. ROYALE SKY (Rock Hard Ten - Shy Lil, by Lil's Lad)
50K RNA short yearling, 85K yearling; sire 16-127 (13%) 2yo FTS; multiple SW dam (76K, 0-4 at 2, 1-10 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters); female family 2yo G2 sprint SW Boone's Mill (400K, 2-5 at 2, won debut, 7-13 sprint); barn 3-41 (7%, $0.89 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint.

9. CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT (Cowboy Cal - Saratoga Rhythm, by Saratoga Six)
25K yearling; 1/2 SP Six Numbers (219K, 1-4 at 2, 5-10 sprint), multiple SW Saratoga's Magic (381K, 1-6 at 2, 3-17 sprint) by 1st-crop sire (multiple G2 SW, $1.0M, 2-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint, 1-40 with 2yos); dam won sprint (88K, 1-2 at 2, 6-28 sprint) with 7 winners from 9 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 5-8 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SW Dancing Blade (136K); barn 2-14 (14%, $1.25 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic (2-4 with 2nd-out 2yos); chased Brays Secret (next-out 58-Beyer grad, 3rd in 9/26 stake); 10/9 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he "was nicely under control coming to the wire"; races with hind shoes off.

10. JAZ N TAP (Jazil - Glorius Tap, by Pleasant Tap)
Sire 7-76 (9%) 2yos; 1st starter from unraced dam; 3rd dam multiple SW Glorious View (137K, 1-6 sprint); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos synthetic sprint; faced decent field 4/7 (winner took ALW 90 Beyer 10/13; runner-up won G3 at AP 9/7).

11. WINGATE HALL (Street Sense - Fruhl's Gold, by Crafty Prospector)
130K yearling; sire 32-224 (14%) 2yos; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Blushing Ogygian (48K, 2-7 at 2, 2-12 sprint), turf SP Tiny Decision (58K, 1-1 at 2, 2-5 sprint); barn 2-13 (15%, $2.27 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (2-5 off 31-60 day layoff); exits slower division of 2yo MSW 9/13 (3rd-finisher graduated IND 58 Beyer 10/14).

12. Q TWO (Quiet American - Quality Gift, by Last Tycoon)
1/2 G3 turf SW Bright Abundance (379K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint), turf SW Gift of Song (90K, 0-2 sprint) by 131-1284 (10%) 2yo sire; dam won turf (France, 11K) with 5 winners from 7 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 1-6 with sprinters); female family multiple 2yo sprint SW Debbie's Band (142K, 4-5 at 2, 4-17 sprint); barn 3-21 (14%, $2.75 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt/synthetic; broke well, but was outsprinted early; rallied nicely thru some traffic stretch; may want more distance.

SELECTIONS:
1. Awesome Sky
2. Bro Rodrigeaux
3. Night League

THE PLAY:
Awesome Sky to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater

Race 6
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. RUMBLEFORTHEROSES (Harlan's Holiday - Uforia, by Zilzal)
50K 2yo; 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Tajaaweed (314K, 1-2 at 2) by 158-896 (18%) 2yo sire; unplaced dam (2K, 0-1 sprint) has 3 winners from 7 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Majestic Legend (200K, 0-1 at 2, 2-17 sprint), 2yo G2 route SP Talltalelady (208K, 1-9 at 2, 2-12 sprint), turf SP Warfield (65K, 0-1 at 2, 1-4 sprint), multiple G3 SW Mr. Greeley (474K, 2-6 at 2, 4-11 sprint); barn 4-19 (21%, $2.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic (1-3 with 2nd-time 2yos); pressed favored winner from inside and hung in gamely despite being green with lead changes; 10/14 Keeneland Clocker notes he was outworked by Reach for a Kitten; listed as vet scratch 10/6; capable.

2. BRILLIANT DAN (Einstein - Dancal, by Mujadil)
By 1st-crop sire (multiple G1 SW, $2.9M, 0-1 sprint, 4-25 with 2yos); multiple G3 SW dam (263K, 2-3 at 2) has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Smithy's Last (South Africa); barn 3-16 (19%, $1.62 ROI) past 5 years turf/synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); had some trouble in slow maiden race at KD; must do more.

3. ROUS (First Defence - Alvernia, by Alydar)
1/2 turf SP Verbose (11K, 0-1 at 2, England), multiple G2 SP Exterior (345K, 0-1 at 2), turf SW Acrobatic (France, 118K, 0-3 at 2) by 9-86 (10%) 2yo sire; dam won route (44K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 5 winners from 12 runners (0-11 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SP Ofanto (195K), turf SW Most Precious (France), multiple SW Private Line (111K, 1-1 at 2), turf SP High Summer (England), multiple turf SP Christophene (France), multiple turf SP Summer View (England); barn 4-12 (33%, $2.16 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (2-5 with 2nd-out 2yos); no shot when off slow in fast race contested over speed-favoring track; Mott does much-better 2nd-out than with firsters.

4. CLOUD CATCHER (Mr. Greeley - High Heel Sneaker, by Dehere)
30K weanling, 57K yearling; sire 136-1073 (13%) 2yos; unraced dam has 4 winners from 7 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters); female family multiple G1 route SW Pleasant Tap ($2.6M, 1-5 at 2, 5-10 sprint); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic; expecting a bit more speed after quick half-mile breeze.

5. TALL BOY (Tale of the Cat - Quiet Now, by Tiznow)
425K weanling; 1/2 SP router Irsaal (123K, 1-4 at 2) by 261-1437 (18%) 2yo sire; dam won route (37K) with 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Saint Liam (4.4M, 0-1 sprint), G3 SW Congressionalhonor (112K, 0-2 sprint), 2yo G2 route SP American Dance (119K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint), G2 route SW Quiet Giant (405K), SP router Dance Quietly (123K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 0-15 past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic off 31-60 day layoff; hooked up in hot pace 8/28; may try rating tactics here.

6. VALDINA'S WILL (Stormy Atlantic - Bonnie Bear, by Gone West)
50K yearling, 110K 2yo after 2F work 21.2; 1/2 G2 turf SP Blushing Bear (51K) by 240-1630 (15%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); 3rd dam SP Amelia Bearhart (24K, 1-12 at 2, 1-9 sprint) female family multiple G1 turf SW Sky Classic ($3.3M, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 7-31 (23%, $1.83 ROI) past 5 years turf/synthetic (1-3 with 2yos); solid speed try and earned good number; respect.

7. CAMP MEETING (Corinthian - Prominent, by El Prado)
50K weanling, 40K yearling; sire 12-133 (9%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from route winner (26K, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 SP Biblionico (74K, 1-3 at 2, 3-17 sprint); barn 0-10 past 5 years synthetic; 8/31 work matches Legend Forever (1st FTS MSW 59 Beyer 9/29 CD); 9/15 work matches Go to Work (FTS WED. R1).

8. LONG STATION (Smoke Glacken - Westline, by Gone West)
30K short yearling, 85K yearling; sire 231-1274 (18%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint winner (47K, 1-7 at 2, 1-9 sprint); female family multiple G1 SW Excellent Meeting (1.4M, 4-8 at 2, 2-5 sprint); barn 8-45 (18%, $1.18 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (1-2 route/sprint); attacked 3w final turn 9/21 and almost held off dead closer in good effort; contender.

9. GENERAL A ROD (Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes, by Dynaformer)
100K yearling, 72K yearling; sire 17-141 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprint (51K, 1-6 sprint) with 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yo, 0-1 with sprinter); dam 1/2 G3 SP Angel On Watch (140K, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 2-6 sprint); barn 2-28 (7%, $0.99 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint.

10. BONESPRINGS (Birdstone - Summer Symphony, by Summer Squall)
Sire 40-344 (12%) 2yos; dam G3 route SW (244K, 0-5 at 2, 0-7 sprint) with 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP 2yo Preamble (84K, 0-6 at 2, 1-17 sprint), SW Secondary School (149K, 3-5 sprint); barn 2-13 (15%, $2.27 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (0-8 with 2nd-out 2yos); barn better 2nd-out, but colt may need distance/more experience.

11. ARARAT (Aragorn - Jindy's Dream, by A.P. Indy)
20K yearling; sire 26-213 (12%) 2yos; unplaced dam (0-2 at 2) has 1 winner from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple G2 sprint SW J J'sdream (1.0M, 3-5 at 2, 13-33 sprint); barn 1-18 (6%, $2.32 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/synthetic (0-5 with 2nd-out 2yos); top 2 finishers returned to win (67, 63 Beyers); perhaps a pace factor.

12. LITTLE CURLIN (Curlin - Hoh Buzzard, by Alhaarth)
275K RNA yearling, 145K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.4; 1/2 turf SP Dr. Smarty Jack (153K, 0-1 sprint), G3 SW Via Villagio (321K, 1-6 at 2, 1-5 sprint) by 6-66 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; dam G2 turf SW (319K, 1-3 at 2) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 turf SW Ashdown Express (652K, 3-6 at 2); barn 7-46 (15%, $1.89 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/21 work matches Vinegar Hill (3rd MSW turf 70 Beyer LRL 9/27/13); 10/12 Keeneland Clocker Report notes he gave "good gate work, in front of Be Warned early, tired a bit and both were together at the wire"; consider.

SELECTIONS:
1. Little Curlin
2. Valdina's Will
3. Long Station

THE PLAY:
Little Curlin to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater