Keeneland Babies 2-year old picks and analysis for Oct. 11, 2013

Race 1

1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)

Maiden Claiming ($30,000)

2-year-old fillies

Purse $19,000

1. SUITS MY FANCY (Offlee Wild - Twining Star, by Twining)

7.5K yearling; 1/2 route SW Pure Class (139K, 1-3 at 2, 4-12 route) by 56-373 (15%) 2yo sire; dam 2yo G3 SP (53K, 1-4 at 2, 1-7 route) with 4 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with routers); female family multiple G3 sprint SW Clocks Secret (405K, 1-4 at 2); barn 2-10 (20%, $1.87 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic adding Lasix 31-60 day layoff; only an even effort 9/3 after racing 3 wide 1st turn and widest turning for home; capable on best.

2. GOLDEN ANNIE (Divine Park - Harlan Helper, by Friends Lake)

30K yearling, 60K RNA 2yo after 1F in 10.4; sire 8-80 (10%) 2yo; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 SW Impending Bear (255K, 0-4 route), G3 SP Siphon Honey (129K, 0-4 route); barn 0-17 past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic; according to 10/6 Keeneland Clocker Report, she was outworked by Jannes Paul (FTS R5); exits key race (3 next-out MCL winners at 1-1 odds or less); perhaps more speed.

3. HADARRA (Harlan's Holiday - Speciality, by Carson City)

8K yearling; 1/2 G3 SP Grizzled Robert (196K, 1-10 route) by 158-887 (18%) 2yo sire; sprint winner (51K, 1-7 at 2, 0-3 route) has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with routers); dam 1/2 sprint SP Lucky Sherman (38K, 1-6 at 2, 0-4 route); barn 2-13 (15%, $2.46 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic; yet to gain ground from stretch call to wire, but has some speed; seems well-spotted.

4. THE CONCEPTION (Corinthian - Red Boa, by Regal Classic)

20K weanling, 15K yearling, 24K 2yo after 1F work 10.4; sire 45-358 (13%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo sprint SP dam (38K, 1-5 at 2, 2-3 route); 2nd dam sprint SP Plume Poppy (76K); barn 1-1 (100%, $12.00 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic; runner-up returned to graduate at IND 68 Beyer

5. ZERUIAH (Wilko - Calico Flower, by Bertrando)

9K weanling; sire 6-103 (6%) 2yos; unraced dam has 1 winner from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Echo of Yesterday (437K, 1-2 route), G1 SW Pirate's Revenge (521K, 4-7 route), SW Caribbean Pirate (171K, 0-1 route), SW Sweet Life (223K, 1-1 at 2), G2 SP Strive (287K, 0-2 at 2, 3-20 route); barn 7-34 (21%, $6.79 ROI) past 5 years turf-synthetic (0-2 with 2yos); not much on turf, but gets some class relief.

6. WONDERFUL MISS BEA (Tiz Wonderful - Trizelle, by Malibu Moon)

12K RNA yearling; sire 27-148 (18%) 2yos; 1st starter from 2yo turf winner (17K, 1-4 at 2, 0-2 route); dam 1/2 SW 2yo Moving Van (209K, 1-4 at 2, 4-39 route), G2 route SP 2yo Waltz On By (141K, 2-5 at 2, 1-8 route), SP Music Magic (94K, 1-1 at 2, 0-2 route); barn 3-37 (8%, $1.08 ROI) past 5 years turf-synthetic (0-3 with 2yos); far behind early after being outsprinted in fast MCL heat KD; never threatened, but galloped out well after late bid; interesting.

7. BLUEGRASS AFFAIR (Bluegrass Cat - Luluwa, by Zafonic)

13K RNA yearling; sire 77-594 (13%) 2yos; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2) with 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam 1/2 G3 turf SW River Deep (192K, 0-4 at 2), multiple SW Dreamer (326K, 2-6 at 2, 0-2 route), G3 SP Belgravia (230K, 1-4 at 2, 3-9 route); barn 0-5 past 5 years turf-synthetic; hopped onto left lead late while one-paced 9/3; slowly improving.

8. SILVER SUNDAY (Badge of Silver - Sunday Sport, by Honour and Glory)

6K yearling, 20K 2yo after 1F work 10.4; sire 46-302 (15%) 2yos; winning dam (26K, 0-4 at 2, 1-7 route) has 3 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam 1/2 G3 SP Vlytava (Argentina), multiple G1 SW Pryka (Argentina), G3 SW Menta Fresca (Argentina); barn 12-99 (12%, $0.97 ROI) past 5 years dirt-synthetic (2-9 with 2yos); although the pace was moderate, she took pressure from the chalk and hung in there in the stretch; contender; according to 10/6 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "was not asked for run";

9. ANGEL IN DISGUISE (Devil His Due - Patchen Beauty, by Hatchet Man)

Sire 149-1373 (11%) 2yo sire; winning dam (54K, 0-2 at 2, 1-12 route) has 4 winners from 7 runners; 0-5 with 2yos, 3-6 with routers; female family 2yo SP Vennie Redberry (115K); barn 0-1 past 5 years turf-synthetic; tracked pacesetting winner to no avail 9/2; can do better vs. these.

SELECTIONS:

1. Suits My Fancy

2. Bluegrass Affair

3. Zeruiah

4. Silver Sunday

THE PLAY:

Suits My Fancy – Bluegrass Affair EXACTA

Suits My Fancy – Zeruiah EXACTA

XXX

Race 6

6 Furlongs (Polytrack)

Maiden Special Weight

2-year-olds

Purse $56,000

1. SEAL SIX (Tiznow - Sweet Damsel, by Turkoman)

1/2 G3 SP Caroline's Gold (156K, 1-4 at 2, 2-7 sprint); full multiple G1 route SW Colonel John (1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 1-3 sprint), G1 route SP Mr. Hot Stuff (349K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint), SP Kayce Ace (151K, 0-1 sprint) by 22-303 (7%) 2yo FTS sire; winning dam (66K, 0-3 at 2, 0-7 sprint) has 9 winners from 9 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 4-9 with sprinters); 2nd dam SW Grande Dame (81K, 0-4 sprint); barn 0-45 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint.

2. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar)

8K yearling, 80K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 5-33 (15%) 2yo FTS; sprint winner (149K, 1-5 at 2, 5-24 sprint) has 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SP 2yo router Williamthenchanted (211K, 2-4 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint), G3 sprint SW True Direction (348K, 8-19 sprint); barn 2-27 (7%, $1.02 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; according to 9/28 Keeneland Clocker Report, he "went easily, much stronger than Dreaming of Kitten"; according to 10/5 Keeneland Clocker Report, he went 2 lengths slower than Gung Ho in a "good work for both"; interesting.

3. HESINFRONT (War Front - Classy Marlin, by Sky Classic)

Sire 6-85 (7%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unplaced dam (1K); dam 1/2 multiple G1 turf SW Tapitsfly (1.4M, 3-7 at 2, 1-4 sprint); barn 0-17 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/9, 9/16 works match Gina's Kitten (4th FTS MSW turf 49 Beyer 9/22 CD)

4. MAJOR DARBY (U S Ranger - Parcae, by Woodman)

1/2 G3 SP Go Robin (192K, 0-3 sprint) by multiple turf SW (481K, 3-3 at 2, 0-17 with 2yo FTS); winning dam (9K, 0-6 at 2, 2-20 sprint) has 7 winners from 11 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 3-10 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple 2yo sprint SW Casereae (111K, 2-10 at 2, 2-14 sprint); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.83 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic sprint); 9/21 work matches Fourosixoone (8th 15K MCL dirt 38 Beyer CD); 10/5 work matches Takepointsandrun (73 turf Beyer, entered Thurs. R6)

5. RANGER REGIMENT (U S Ranger - Harford Ghost, by Silver Ghost)

82K short yearling, 180K yearling; 1/2 sprint SW Gary D (135K, 0-2 at 2, 3-17 sprint) by multiple turf SW (481K, 3-3 at 2, 2-31 with 2yos); sprint winner (60K, 1-3 at 2, 2-6 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple sprint SP Justawalkinthepark (71K, 1-3 at 2, 1-11 sprint); barn 6-37 (16%, $1.97 ROI) past 5 years, turf-synthetic (0-1 with 2yos); chased the pace while 3 wide, but didn't have much in the straight; expecting improvement with Lasix.

6. RUSLANA (City Zip - Big Cat Walks Late, by Stormy Atlantic)

45K RNA yearling, 50K RNA yearling, 80K RNA 2yo after 1F work in 10.0; sire 194-1091 (18%) 2yos; multiple SP dam (108K, 0-3 at 2, 0-5 sprint) has 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); 3rd dam SP Thelma Jean (31K, 0-3 sprint); barn 1-10 (10%, $0.41 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-synthetic off 31-60 day layoff; according to 9/27 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "looked sharp, had the better of Nantucketeer"; according to 10/5 Keeneland Clocker Report" she "continues to train well, head up with Finura"; filly exits key race (3 next-out grads with 70+ Beyers); pace factor.

7. ME COMMANCHE (Belong to Me - Comanche Wind, by Forestry)

6K weanling, 15K yearling; sire 162-1107 (15%) 2yos; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 2yo sprint SP Angel Island (67K, 1-3 at 2, 1-6 sprint), multiple SP Fabulous Babe (208K, 1-1 at 2, 4-14 sprint); barn 2-13 (15%, $1.22 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-synthetic sprints (0-6 in MSW); battled early with favored FTS winner and hung in there to the wire; listed on overnight as 1st-time gelding; contender.

8. HAMPDEN FIVEONE (Utopia - Miramar Miracle, by Affirmed)

27K yearling, 55K 2yo after 2F work 21.2; 1/2 G3 turf SP 2yo Marcello (133K, 2-6 at 2, 1-3 sprint) by 4-67 (6%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 4 winners from 4 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Eishin Hampton (Japan), G2 route SP Level Red (187K, 1-3 at 2, 2-6 sprint); barn 3-20 (15%, $4.20 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS (2-7 synthetic); couldn't keep up with Rare according to Keeneland Clocker Report for 10/4; 8/11, 8/17, 9/6 works match Pentathlon (7th FTS MSW turf 53 Beyer 9/14 KD); 8/30 work matches Electro Peg (8th 'N1X' OPC turf 54 Beyer 9/10 IND).

9. SON OF DIXIE (Dixie Union - Jeanne's Honor, by Honour and Glory)

1/2 SW Going to Kikaro (173K, 2-3 sprint), SP Ten K Cat (83K, 1-7 at 2, 0-4 sprint) by 147-943 (16%) 2yo sire; sprint winner (49K, 0-3 at 2, 1-2 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SP Beautiful Gem (155K, 3-13 sprint), multiple sprint SW Roman Treasure (259K, 5-15 sprint); barn 10-62 (16%, $1.27 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic); no match for impressive runaway winner; not out of this.

10. BOOM BOOM VROOM (Zensational - Backroom Blues, by Dixieland Band)

160K yearling; 1/2 SP sprint 2yo Five Star Holding (48K, 1-2 at 2, 1-3 sprint), G3 SW Sindy With an S (330K, 3-8 sprint), SW sprinter Indian Winter (153K, 1-2 at 2, 3-11 sprint) by multiple G1 sprint SW sire (669K, 0-1 at 2, 2-8 with 2yo FTS, 6-45 with 2yos); winning dam (67K, 0-3 sprint) has 7 winners from 8 runners (4-6 with 2yos, 5-6 with sprinters in North America); 3rd dam multiple SP Hardly (31K, 0-4 at 2); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.92 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out dirt-synthetic sprint; according to 9/29 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "went sharply, a little stronger than La Mejor Fiesta"; according to 10/7 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "looks good, was a little stronger than Jet Majesty"; grappled with runner-up early before tiring against top filly Sweet Reason; expect speed.

11. BREWING (Maimonides - Fifty Mill Short, by Johannesburg)

By G1 SP 2yo (62K, 1-2 at 2, 1-2 sprint, 0-10 with 2yos); unraced dam has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 sprint SP Minkredible (160K, 1-3 at 2, 5-23 sprint), sprint SW Purging the Stone (85K, 1-3 at 2, 3-6 sprint); barn 1-32 (3%, $0.41 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-synthetic (1-5 second-out); carved out very fast splits and got better of pace foe in race dominated by closers; exotics threat.

12. BUCK MAGIC (Broken Vow - Gatorette, by Distorted Humor)

Sire 38-333 (11%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from sprint winner (60K, 2-3 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Soonerette (201K, 2-6 at 2, 0-2 sprint); barn 0-5 all starters past 5 years; according to 10/4 Keeneland Clocker Report, he "started 2-3 lengths back of Forfeit and was a length in front at the finish, Graham up"

SELECTIONS:

1. Vicar’s in Trouble

2. Ranger Regiment

3. Me Comanche

THE PLAY

Vicar’s in Trouble to WIN and PLACE at 4-1 odds or greater.