Keeneland Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 10, 2013

Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2013

Race 4
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming $30,000
2-year-old fillies
Purse $24,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Nevergetsold
2. Richies Sweetheart
3. In Tall Cotton

THE PLAY:
Nevergetsold to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater

Race 5
1 Mile (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $56,000

1. AMORE GRAND (Grand Slam - Dynacielo, by Dynaformer)
95K yearling; sire 214-1304 (16%) 2yos, 312-2478 (13%) turf; dam placed turf (11K, 0-1 at 2, 0-5 turf) with 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SP Apak (235K, 2-5 at 2, 0-2 turf), G1 turf SP Adair (Ireland, 86K, 1-1 at 2, 1-3 turf), G3 turf SP Cyclorama (108K, 1-1 at 2, 2-7 turf); dam full turf SW Dynaman (128K, 5-13 turf); barn 13-81 (16%, $1.43 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf route MSW (0-4 at Keeneland); hung out 4w on the final turn at CD and faltered in the final eighth; should save more ground, but prefer others on top.

2. CORONETTE (Empire Maker - Abita, by Dynaformer)
150K yearling; sire 55-323 (17%) 2yo, 144-1073 (13%) turf; winning dam (142K, 3-13 turf) has 5 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 4-6 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple G3 turf SW Majuscule (Europe), G3 route SW Royal Cielo (163K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 turf), multiple SW Luhuk (England); barn 9-48 (19%, $3.33 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf route MSW (1-1 at Keeneland); virtually no shot Spa after chasing glacial pace, but disappointed odds-on DEL after solid trip tracking 3-ply pace in weak field; too early to give up on.

3. CODE NAME AVA (More Than Ready - Ava Darling, by Gilded Time)
150K yearling; 1/2 turf SP Safe Crossing (187K, 4-12 turf, 1st-turf winner) by 46-401 (11%) 2yo FTS, 72-513 (14%) 1st-turf sire; dam won sprint at 2 (48K, 1-4 at 2, 0-2 turf) with 2 winners from 3 runners (2-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner); dam 1/2 turf SW Alex's Allure (69K, 0-2 at 2, 3-7 turf), G2 sprint SW Keyed Entry (322K, 1-1 at 2), G3 turf SW Successful Mission (353K, 2-4 at 2, 7-15 turf, 1st-turf winner), G1 sprint SW Justin Phillip (1.2M, 1-4 at 2), G3 route SW Algorithms (301K, 2-2 at 2); barn 1-9 (11%, $0.75 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS turf (0-5 route); 8/5, 8/11, 8/26, 9/16 works match Queen Boss (4th FTS MSW turf 47 Beyer KD 9/25); 8/26 work matches Standpoint (2nd FTS MSW dirt 71 Beyer CD 9/20); 10/5 work matches Tomei (52 turf Beyer, entered R4).

4. HIGH WIRE KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Littlebitoflove, by High Yield)
Sire 35-201 (17%) 2yo FTS, 45-271 (17%) 1st-turf; dam won route (26K) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 SW New Capricorn (Italy), G3 SW Lady Six (Brazil), SP Babysix (Brazil); barn 1-12 (8%, $0.56 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route; 9/5 work matches Anatole (0 Beyer turf); 9/26 work matches Total Talent (1st 15K MCL dirt 58 Beyer CD 9/29).

5. COMMERCIAL FLIGHT (Corinthian - Commercialize, by Robyn Dancer)
16K short yearling; sire 44-357 (12%) 2yos, 48-391 (12%) turf; SW dam (203K, 0-4 at 2, 3-20 turf) has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 2yo SP Racing Starflight (59K, 2-5 at 2, 1-4 turf), multiple SP Jeblar Sez Who (216K, 0-9 at 2, 0-6 turf); dam full SW Thunder Breeze (267K, 1-11 turf), SP Oso Polar (Puerto Rico); barn 2-12 (17%, $1.15 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf; broke well 9/11, but was taken far off the pace along the inside; swung widest turning for home and came with a stout late run to just miss; 3 horses from that heat have raced back (all off board, best Beyer 65).

6. AMELIATHEAVIATOR (Henrythenavigator - Citi Pearl, by Citidancer)
45K yearling; 1/2 G2 SW Workin for Hops (706K, 2-3 at 2, 5-23 turf), SP Cryptocandiac (139K, 1-3 at 2, 1-3 turf) by 6-38 (16%) 2yo, 6-53 (11%) turf sire in North America; dam won sprint at 2 (21K, 1-4 at 2, 0-1 turf) and has 6 winners from 7 runners (4-7 with 2yos, 5-6 with turfers; dam 1/2 SP sprinter Puncher (320K, 2-5 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 5-33 (15%, $0.76 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW turf route 31-60 day layoff (0-2 at Keeneland); seemed to run in spots along inside 9/1 and was last along hedge turning for home; rallied through some traffic for 4th in solid field; capable.

7. JANNES PAUL (Giant's Causeway - Ballado's Thunder, by Saint Ballado)
Sire 27-286 (9%) 2yo FTS, 50-529 (9%) 1st-turf; SW dam (285K, 3-16 turf) has 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with turfers); dam 1/2 G3 route SP Toxis (119K, 0-3 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yo FTS turf route; 8/20 work matches Intelyhente (76 turf Beyer); 9/3 work matches Geebes (7th 30K MCL dirt 15 Beyer CD 9/6); according to the 10/6 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "was going well at the finish, better than Golden Annie" (41 dirt Beyer).

8. GABBY'S PURIM (Purim - Morigami, by Orchard Park)
Sire 3-49 (6%) 2yo FTS, 7-71 (10%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from placed dam (5K, 0-3 turf); dam 1/2 SW Happiness Is (231K, 4-25 turf); barn 2-10 (20%, $1.86 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route; 10/3 work matches Malibu Blues (53 turf Beyer); 10/3 work matches Myositis Dan (38 dirt Beyer).

9. DADDY'S MEMORY (Scat Daddy - Vague Memory, by Ward Off Trouble)
45K RNA yearling; 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Lost Memory (20K, 1-2 at 2) by 53-310 (17%) 2yo, 16-110 (15%) 1st-turf sire; dam G3 SW sprinter (278K, 0-3 turf) with 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); female family 2yo SW Landing Lady (103K); barn 5-23 (22%, $1.41 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt-turf; finished ahead of 3 next-out winners after being outsprinted early at CD (very fast pace); rallied through minor traffic for small prize in good effort.

10. FALUTIN (Tiznow - Uppity Kitty, by Tale of the Cat)
130K yearling; sire 100-744 (13%) 2yos, 27-351 (8%) 1st-turf; dam 2yo SW sprinter (90K, 2-4 at 2) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers); dam 1/2 SW River Mountain Rd (408K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 1-3 (33%, $1.20 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt-turf (0-2 routes); hopped at start, passed tired IND; 3rd- and 4th-finishers returned to win (68, 67 Beyers).

11. SKITTLE BOMB (Giant's Causeway - Bellini Sunrise, by Machiavellian)
180K yearling; sire 27-286 (9%) 2yo FTS, 50-529 (9%) 1st-turf; dam won sprint (47K, 0-1 turf) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SW Holzmeister (356K, 3-4 at 2, won debut, 0-2 turf), multiple sprint SP Overlord (108K, 2-6 at 2, won debut, 0-1 turf); barn 3-14 (21%, $11.92 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes; 9/9 work matches Hunting Hill (2nd MSW polytrack 60 Beyer KEE 10/6).

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Ameliatheaviator
2. Coronette
3. Daddy's Memory

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Ameliatheaviator to WIN at 3-1 odds or greater.

Race 9

1 Mile (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $56,000

1. MAD PRINCESS (Artie Schiller - Anita Madden, by Arch)
13K RNA yearling; 1/2 G3 route SP Braveman (94K, 0-1 turf) by 32-284 (11%) 2yo, 111-786 (14%) turf sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 5 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 G2 SW Santa Catarina (645K, 1-4 at 2, 0-1 turf), 2yo G2 sprint SP Power World (1-5 at 2); barn 2-18 (11%, $0.65 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf (0-7 route); cleared field 9/18, but faltered once headed turning for home; expect speed again.

2. AMERICAN GIRLY (Quiet American - Swirly Girl, by Cat Dreams)
8.5K 2yo after 2F work 23.0; sire 131-1281 (10%) 2yos, 197-2138 (9%) turf; 1st starter from unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-1 on turf); 3rd dam SP Lady Becker (75K, 1-4 turf); barn 0-8 past 5 years 2yos; failed to threaten 9/2 after chasing slow pace; must improve.

3. CELLO (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy)
Full multiple G3 turf SW Optimizer (916K, 1-5 at 2, 5-16 turf) by 20-190 (11%) 2yo, 111-649 (17%) turf sire; winning dam (65K, 1-2 at 2) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-4 turfers); dam 1/2 multiple G1 SW Finder's Fee (708K, 3-8 at 2, 0-1 turf), SP sprinter New Way (120K, 0-1 turf), multiple G2 SP router Treasure Island (96K, 1-1 at 2); barn 1-19 (5%, $1.32 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt/turf, sprint/route MSW; didn't do much against good field at Spa, but should appreciate longer trip and can show speed; interesting.

4. SMART ASHLEY (Smart Strike - Awesome Ashley, by Unbridled's Song)
Sire 167-978 (17%) 2yos, 70-607 (12%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from multiple SW (303K, 1-3 at 2, 0-2 turf); dam 1/2 route SP The Underling (146K, 0-3 at 2, 0-6 turf); barn 0-14 past 5 years 2yos dirt-turf; took some dirt in her face but only raced evenly without threatening; expecting better here.

5. FAWAAREK (Smart Strike - Golden Apples, by Pivotal)
1/2 turf SW 2yo Habaya (135K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 2-5 turf, 1st-turf winner), G3 SP Hatheer (169K, 1-4 at 2, 2-9 turf) by 52-377 (14%) 2yo FTS, 70-607 (12%) 1st-turf sire; multiple G1 turf SW dam (1.6M, 6-16 turf) has 3 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 3-3 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners); dam 1/2 turf SW La Piaf (219K, 1-4 at 2, 6-24 turf), SP Legendary (France), G3 turf SW Alexander Three D (England); barn 2-20 (10%, $1.70 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS (0-3 on turf); lovely turf pedigree.

6. CLEO'S KREWE (Flatter - Chinchilla, by Rubiano)
Sire 98-642 (15%) 2yos, 36-511 (7%) turf; SP dam (134K, 1-2 at 2, 2-22 turf) has 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Magic Moondust (105K, 1-8 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 1-13 (8%, $0.41 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf route; made early bid to tackle Mad Princess 9/18, took over in stretch and battled gamely for minor award; capable.

7. PURPLE DROP (Bernstein - Cape of Bradford, by Cape Town)
8K yearling; sire 141-871 (16%) 2yos, 295-1915 (15%) turf; 1st starter from SW sprinter (139K, 0-4 turf); dam 1/2 G3 route SW Jody Slew (196K, 2-7 at 2, 0-3 turf); barn 7-51 (14%, $4.78 ROI) past 5 years turf (1-3 with 2yos); 3rd-finisher came back to run 4th as the chalk in a 50K MCL on polytrack here; earned good number despite breaking poorly and being forced widest turning for home; contender.

8. BABE'S RULER (Roman Ruler - Leo's Gypsy Dancer, by Leo Castelli)
75K 2yo after 1F work 10.0; 1/2 sprint SP Forestry Gold (92K, 0-4 turf), SP Spiteful Gypsy (131K, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 1-5 turf, 1st-turf winner) by 17-138 (12%) 2yo FTS, 11-122 (9%) 1st-turf sire; multiple SW dam (457K, 2-4 at 2, 2-11 turf) has 4 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, won debut, 3-5 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner); dam 1/2 SP River Barrow (France), multiple SP Western Cielo (238K, 0-1 turf); barn 2-14 (14%, $1.97 ROI) past 5 years FTS turf (1-5 with 2yos); according to 9/26 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "was well within herself from the gate, in company with Estuary"; according to 10/3 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "good effort, looks sharp, out in 113/2."

9. CANDY CRUSH (Candy Ride - Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair)
1/2 G2 route SP Doc Cheney (190K, 2-2 at 2, 0-1 turf), route SW Roman Emperor (168K, 2-3 at 2), SW Seruni (349K, 3-14 turf), 2yo G2 SP Liberated (92K, 1-4 at 2, 0-1 turf) by 91-551 (17%) 2yo, 104-821 (13%) turf sire; multiple route SW dam (389K, 0-1 at 2) has 5 winners from 9 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 1-6 with turfers); dam 1/2 route SP Sweet Tess (27K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 4-19 (21%, $8.95 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf (1-7 second-out); gamely beat back 2 challenges before succumbing late; respect.

10. MERRY MERRY BEE (Purim - Flying Gal, by Flying Chevron)
20K yearling, 13K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 17-131 (13%) 2yos, 50-328 (15%) turf; dam 2yo sprint SW (73K, 2-7 at 2, 0-5 turf) with 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers); female family G1 SW Try Something New (491K); barn 0-15 past 5 years 2yos turf; passed tired rivals after being outsprinted early.

11. HONORED (Harlan's Holiday - Elusive Sara, by Elusive Quality)
17K yearling, 35K 2yo after 1F work 11.0; sire 155-879 (18%) 2yos, 148-1233 (12%) turf; SW dam (77K, 0-2 at 2) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 sprint SP Sudden Sensation (79K, 0-5 turf), sprint SP Paradise Princess (44K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 turf); barn 4-74 (5%, $1.10 ROI) past 5 years turf (0-3 with 2yos); followed Candy Crush but came up empty.

12. POBEDA (Badge of Silver - Lantana, by Copelan)
35K yearling; 1/2 multiple G3 sprint SW Lantana Mob (420K, 3-7 at 2) by 46-301 (15%) 2yo, 7-106 (7%) 1st-turf sire; dam placed sprinting at 2 (3K, 0-5 at 2) with 5 winners from 8 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 0-4 with turfers); dam 1/2 SP Ocean Effect (48K, 0-2 at 2); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yos dirt/turf; there are class, distance and surface questions to address.

SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Smart Ashley
2. Purple Drop
3. Cello

THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Smart Ashley to WIN at 7-2 odds or greater.