Keeneland Babies for 10/19

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Saturday's results:
Race 1: Dorian Will finished fourth
Race 3: Kentucky Peaches finished second
Race 5: Answer finished tenth
Race 6: Flashmans Papers finished tenth

Detailed analysis will return next week

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Race 4
1 1/8 Miles
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
LAST MARTINI has been in there against some promising two-year-olds. In his debut, he had the misfortune to draw next-out Grade 2 winner Charitable Man. He then ran into a pair of next-out winners as well as Pioneerof the Nile, the third-finisher of the recent Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. Last time, Last Martini was bumped at the start before racing evenly against recent Keeneland allowance winner Rockin' Joe. Last Martini adds blinkers, draws a cozy inside cost, and he probably gained valuable conditioning over that hilly Kentucky Downs turf course. He shows some stamina-building works, and looks ready to handle this demanding nine-furlong distance.
UNION STRIKE and NO INFLATION come out of the same turf race at Arlington Park. No Inflation bested his rival that day, but Union Strike was found to have bled and his trainer, Steve Asmussen, adds Lasix for the rematch. Union Strike should be running late while No Inflation, a gelding with a pair of bullet workouts over the Keeneland surface, may be closer to the pace.
EVOLUTIONIST boasts a beautiful pedigree, and it looks like he's slowly figuring the game out. He draws a tough outside post position, however. SHAPE lost all chance at the start of his most recent run at Arlington when stumbling at the start, He's bred to handle this added distance. AUDIBLE showed good early speed at Belmont, but the stamina just wasn't there when the real racing began. He goes second off the layoff, switches to John Velazquez, and may try to control things up front. LAREDO goes two sprints to a route for a barn that is overdue for a big win. He was wide last time out, and can be closer to the leaders in this spot. MASKED MAN exits a very quick maiden special at Saratoga won by Breeders' Cup Juvenile-bound Munnings. By Mineshaft, he should relish this additional distance, and looms an interesting sleeper for the exotics. GREATER GLORY was saddled with a tough inside post for his debut at Turfway Park, and he didn't get away all that well. He passed some tired ones to finish fourth, and his pedigree insists he'll do better at this longer distance. The progeny of his sire, Empire Maker, usually don't win first-out, but they improve with experience so don't dismiss this $320,000 yearling out of Mother Goose winner Nonsuch Bay. I COME FROM BEHIND bled in his debut at Arlington, then may have found the recent six-furlong distance of his second start a bit short. By The Cliff's Edge, he's another that should do well around two turns. AFFIRMED ON APPEAL must improve greatly. RUN SMART ONE needs a Beyer boost.

Selections:
1. Last Martini
2. Union Strike
3. No Inflation

The Play:
Last Martini to Win and Place at 6-1 or greater.

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
36-7-14 (+ $14.80)