Keeneland: 2-year-old picks and analysis for Oct. 12

RACE 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse: $19,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Kodiak Syd
2. Bad Student
3. Don Suave
4. Broadway Missile

THE PLAY:
Kodiak Syd to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater

RACE 3
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse: $56,000

1. MISS ARRANGEMENT (Mr. Greeley - Shy Greeting, by Shy Tom)
130K RNA yearling, 270K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 multiple G1 SW Forty Greeta (Argentina, 62K, 4-4 at 2, 2-3 sprint), 2yo turf SP Liquidity Trap (100K, 1-5 at 2), G2 sprint SW Honorable Dillon (208K, 1-2 at 2, 3-7 sprint) by 37-384 (10%) 2yo FTS; dam SP router (Argentina, 10K, 0-1 at 2, 1-1 sprint) with 6 winners from 7 runners (4-5 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 3-3 with sprinters); female family G2 route SW Good Command (444K, 1-7 sprint); barn 3-18 (17%, $0.85 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint.

2. FOUR LAKES (Exchange Rate - Betshe Hath a Way, by Gilded Time)
1/2 multiple SW Valentine Fever (229K, 2-5 at 2, 3-14 sprint) by 37-259 (14%) 2yo FTS sire; turf winner (16K) has 5 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 turf SP Jet's Tradition (65K, 2-4 sprint); barn 2-6 (33%, $7.23 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS synthetic.

3. MUNIRAH (Kitten's Joy - Speed to Burn, by Gilded Time)
160K weanling; sire 35-201 (17%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo G2 sprint SP (79K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 1-6 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Artie Schiller (2.0M, 2-5 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint), multiple SW Our Table Mountain (South Africa); barn 7-45 (16%, $1.93 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/23 work matches Charm City Girl (3rd FTS MSW Tapeta 42 Beyer 9/24 PID); 8/29 work matches Lady Doris (1st FTS MSW dirt 60 Beyer 9/30 DEL); 9/5, 9/12 works match Interrupted (1st FTS MSW turf 60 Beyer LRL 9/27); 10/5 work matches Queenie's Song (2nd AN2L turf 10/9 KEE)

4. MIZZEN MOON (Mizzen Mast - Pink Moon, by Exploit)
15K yearling, 90K 2yo after 1F work 10.0; sire 16-195 (8%) 2yo FTS; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) has 3 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 SW 2yo Broad Dynamite (157K, 3-6 at 2, 3-5 sprint), 2yo G3 route SP Everyday Angel (55K, 1-3 at 2, 1-2 sprint); barn 3-14 (21%, $2.08 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS (0-2 synthetic).

5. JULIE'S JEWELRY (Distorted Humor - Jeweled Lady, by General Meeting)
130K RNA yearling; 1/2 multiple SW Petition the Lady (180K, 6-22 sprint), multiple SW Saucey Evening (368K, 3-6 at 2, won debut, 1-5 sprint) by 57-343 (17%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 route SP Red Velvet (72K, 1-1 at 2, 3-5 sprint), 2yo G1 SW Notable Career (327K, 3-7 at 2, 2-6 sprint); dam full multiple G1 route SW General Challenge (2.8M, 1-1 at 2, 2-3 sprint), multiple SW Western Hemisphere (417K, 3-6 sprint); barn 5-37 (14%, $2.96 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/10, 8/17 works match Trytoloveagain (10th FTS MSW turf 37 Beyer 9/25 KD); 9/21, 10/1 works match Hunting Hill (2nd MSW polytrack 60 Beyer 10/6 KEE); outworked by Hunting Hill, according to 10/1 Keeneland Clocker Report

6. SUMMER IN BALI (In Summation - Bali Silver, by Open Forum)
25K short yearling, 70K 2yo after 2F work 21.2; sire G1 sprint SW (1.2M, 5-6 at 2, 10-19 sprint, 5-48 with 2yos); unraced dam has 1 winner from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Paula Revere (294K, 2-3 at 2, 2-3 sprint), 2yo G2 route SP Our Tomboy (60K, 2-5 at 2, 2-5 sprint), turf SP August Moonlight (94K); barn 4-42 (10%, $1.97 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW synthetic sprint; prompted pace 2w 9/15 and hopped back to left lead late when 2nd-best over 2 next-out grads; listed as vet scratch 9/24; contender.

7. FONEPFERESH (Holy Roman Emperor - Vee Gita, by Vettori)
Sire multiple 2yo turf SW (Ireland, 764K, 4-7 at 2, 0-7 North America 2yos); 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 G1 route SW 2yo Vale of York (1.2M, 3-6 at 2, won debut); barn 1-10 (10%, $0.48 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW synthetic sprint; passed tired foes in solid field (winner was 4th Arlington-Washington Lassie; 3rd-finisher won here 10/5 with 63 Beyer).

8. WHOMPING WILLOW (Mineshaft - English Willow, by Smart Strike)
70K yearling; 1/2 sprint SP 2yo Dancing Elliebelle (31K, 2-5 at 2, 2-4 sprint) by 61-446 (14%) 2yo sire; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint) has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); female family G2 SW sprinter Parisian Flight (535K, 2-7 at 2, 14-42 sprint); barn 3-8 (38%, $5.82 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/synthetic; showed high speed vs. next-out G3 SW in swift key heat 6/29; expect her on the lead.

9. KATIE O. (Yes It's True - Ablaze, by Forest Camp)
65K yearling; sire 62-413 (15%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 3 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 route SP Mister Triester (418K, 0-5 at 2, 0-14 sprint); barn 0-19 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/24 work matches Bird Maker (FTS R7)

10. RESISTIVITY (Student Council - Lake Travis, by Seattle Slew)
1/2 sprint SW Orange Crush (88K, 0-6 at 2, 2-14 sprint), G2 route SP High Quail (157K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 4-39 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 6 winners from 7 runners (0-6 with 2yos, 4-7 with sprinters); dam full multiple G1 SW Lakeway (965K, 1-1 at 2, 2-3 sprint), route SP Devine (94K, 1-2 sprint); dam 1/2 SP turf 2yo Monarchoftheglen (141K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 4-17 sprint); 8/23, 9/14 works match Prayer On a Wing (2nd FTS MSW dirt 49 Beyer 9/29 CD); 8/30 work matches Dynamic Impact (4th FTS MSW dirt 63 Beyer 9/20 CD)

SELECTIONS:
1. Summer in Bali
2. Whomping Willow
3. Munirah
4. Four Lakes

THE PLAY:
Summer in Bali - Whomping Willow EXACTA
Summer in Bali - Munirah EXACTA

RACE 7
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse: $56,000

1. BIRD MAKER (Empire Maker - Bird Harbor, by Boston Harbor)
1/2 sprint SP Cheechako (106K, 0-2 at 2, 1-9 sprint) by 14-142 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; sprint winner (67K, 1-1 at 2, 2-6 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters); female family multiple G1 route SW Bird Town (871K, 1-4 at 2, 1-4 sprint), multiple G1 route SW Birdstone (1.5M, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 1-2 sprint); barn 0-19 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/1, 8/7, 8/13 works match Bonesprings (10th FTS MSW dirt 21 Beyer 9/29 CD); 8/23 work matches Taketheodds (3rd FTS MSW dirt 68 Beyer 9/28 CD); 9/24 work matches Katie O. (FTS R3)

2. T. R. INDY (Dixie Union - Sugar Canyon, by A.P. Indy)
120K yearling, 485K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 37-315 (12%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam full G2 route SW Adriano (728K, 1-4 at 2); dam 1/2 G3 turf SP Gold d'Oro (232K, 0-2 at 2); barn 5-37 (14%, $2.96 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/9 work matches Clever Beauty (1st MSW dirt 72 Beyer 9/20 CD); 9/17 work matches Skittle Bomb (FTS Thurs. R9); 9/24 work matches Ready Player One (4th FTS MSW polytrack 53 Beyer 10/6 KEE); 10/1 work matches Zinzay (2nd G3 Jessamine turf 10/9 Kee)

3. PLACE CARD (Lemon Drop Kid - Two Halos, by Saint Ballado)
160K yearling; 1/2 turf SW Trois Aureole (112K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 28-253 (11%) 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, won debut, 1-4 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SW Top Secret (997K, 3-6 at 2, 5-12 sprint); barn 7-45 (16%, $1.93 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/22 work matches Lady Doris (1st FTS MSW dirt 60 Beyer 9/30 DEL); 8/29, 9/6 works match Daring Dancer (1st FTS MSW turf 66 Beyer 9/19 LRL); 9/20 work matches Interrupted (1st FTS MSW turf 60 Beyer 9/27 LRL); "was well reserved in her gate work," according to 10/5 Keeneland Clocker Report

4. TONI'S HOLLYDAY (Harlan's Holiday - May Day Vow, by Broken Vow)
62K short yearling, 165K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 158-887 (18%) 2yos; dam multiple sprint SW (166K, 1-1 at 2, 5-8 sprint) with 0 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G3 SW May Day Rose (399K, 2-4 at 2, 2-5 sprint); barn 2-30 (7%, $1.12 ROI) past 5 years dirt/synthetic (0-2 with 2yos); freshened after well-bet debut; "good gate work, was the better of Windhook," according to 10/3 Keeneland Clocker Report

5. WICKED TEMPER (Tapit - Sayedah, by Darshaan)
190K RNA weanling, 315K yearling; sire 34-273 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo G2 turf SW (66K, 1-3 at 2) with 0 winners from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); 3rd dam 2yo G3 turf SW Muhbubh (England, 66K); barn 0-16 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 8/28 work matches Hesinfront (FTS Fri. R6); 9/23 work matches Fela Kuti (68 dirt Beyer); 10/7 work matches Broadway Zen (35 dirt Beyer)

6. KALA RYAN (Dunkirk - Dance Academy, by Royal Academy)
10K short yearling, 30K yearling; 1/2 SW Frazil (318K, 5-16 sprint) by multiple G1 route SP sire (393K, 1-1 sprint, 3-26 with 2yo FTS); sprint winner (49K, 0-4 at 2, 1-5 sprint) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Colonial Ball (92K); barn 2-19 (11%, $1.01 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint; 9/11 work matches Plug Catcher (1st FTS MSW dirt 73 Beyer CD 9/20); expecting solid showing.

7. LE PLUME (Smart Strike - Impertinence, by A.P. Indy)
50K short yearling; sire 167-978 (17%) 2yos; 1st starter from unplaced dam; 2nd dam multiple SW Sophie My Love (234K, 1-3 at 2, 1-2 sprint); barn 1-14 (7%, $0.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW dirt/synthetic sprint; not much thus far.

8. BOOM BOOM VROOM (Zensational - Backroom Blues, by Dixieland Band)
160K yearling; 1/2 SP sprint 2yo Five Star Holding (48K, 1-2 at 2, 1-3 sprint), G3 SW Sindy With an S (330K, 3-8 sprint), SW sprinter Indian Winter (153K, 1-2 at 2, 3-11 sprint) by multiple G1 sprint SW sire (669K, 0-1 at 2, 2-8 with 2yo FTS, 6-45 with 2yos); winning dam (67K, 0-3 sprint) has 7 winners from 8 runners (4-6 with 2yos, 5-6 with sprinters in North America); 3rd dam multiple SP Hardly (31K, 0-4 at 2); barn 1-11 (9%, $0.92 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out dirt-synthetic sprint; according to 9/29 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "went sharply, a little stronger than La Mejor Fiesta"; according to 10/7 Keeneland Clocker Report, she "looks good, was a little stronger than Jet Majesty"; grappled with runner-up early before tiring against top filly Sweet Reason; expect speed.

9. AURELIA'S BELLE (Lemon Drop Kid - Aurelia, by Danzig)
170K yearling; sire 28-253 (11%) 2yo FTS; placed dam (19K, 0-3 sprint) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, won debut, 1-3 with sprintes); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SP Elajjud (225K, 7-23 sprint), G1 SW Aldiza (496K, 2-5 at 2, 3-10 sprint), 2yo G1 sprint SP Aunt Anne (112K, 2-6 at 2, 1-7 sprint), G2 SW Atelier (749K, 1-4 sprint), SW Arabis (204K, 1-7 sprint), multiple turf SP They Call Me Giant (214K); barn 11-64 (17%, $1.33 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint); 7/20 work matches Solitary Ranger (1st G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity polytrack 73 Beyer 9/7 AP); 8/11 work matches Cortana (4th SMSW polytrack 20 Beyer 9/15 AP); "finished with good energy, looks to be on the improve," according to 10/1 Keeneland Clocker Report; "was in hand, looks ready for a good effort," according to 10/8 Keeneland Clocker Report

10. RUMBA (Dunkirk - Shawnee Moon, by Forestry)
100K yearling; sire multiple G1 route SP (393K, 1-1 sprint, 3-26 with 2yo FTS); 1st starter from sprint-placed dam (22K, 0-3 at 2, 0-6 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple route SW Megan's Halo (115K, 1-4 at 2, 0-6 sprint), G3 SW Indian Ocean (176K, 1-2 sprint); barn 0-16 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW synthetic sprint.

11. MAYBE LILY (Flower Alley - Sweet Dreamy Syn, by Wild Syn)
5K weanling, 6K yearling; sire 21-281 (7%) 2yos; route winner (66K, 0-4 at 2, 0-4 sprint) has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Dream Launcher (572K, 0-1 at 2, 3-15 sprint); barn 0-4 past 5 years turf/synthetic (0-1 with 2yos; showed brief speed 17 days ago, but likely chasing Boom Boom Vroom here.

SELECTIONS:
1. Kala Ryan
2. Place Card
3. T. R. Indy

THE PLAY:
Kala Ryan to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater.

RACE 8
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-old fillies
Purse: $58,000

1. MISS STELLSIE (Roman Ruler - Garden in the Rain, by Dolphin Street)
Battled early with odds-on Bray Secret and actually appeared to have put that one away entering the turn; she opened up a clear lead turning for home, but got leg-weary in the stretch and needed 13.52 seconds to complete the last furlong; drops back in with fillies and projects to show speed from the inside, but there are other pace horses to her outside and she may struggle with the additional distance; will race with hind shoes off.

2. E BUILT THIS CITY (City Zip - E Looe, by Lure)
Showed speed against next-out Schuylerville winner Bahnah at Churchill Downs, then took advantage of weaker competition when romping in slow time at Indiana Downs; needs several lengths to find on the Beyer scale in order to compete with these, but she sure was visually impressive last time; zipped right to the front, took minor pressure from a 25-1 shot (finished 7th) and poured it on in the stretch; may have to work harder to get the front here.

3. BELLARADA (Rockport Harbor - Temporada, by Summer Squall)
A gate-to-wire winner of her debut, she bobbled just a bit at the start of the 8/14 race and was far behind the early leaders down the backstretch; she got a decent setup in that race as the pace was fast and contentious, and Bellarada rallied widest for 4th without threatening the winner; didn't do much in the Lassie, but should appreciate cutting back in distance and dropping in class.

4. ANGIE'S PRIM LADY (With Distinction - Optime', by Yes It's True)
She exits a fast-paced race won by a stakes-placed, odds-on favorite; took her shot at the winner with a three wide bid on the turn, but was rebuffed in upper stretch; still ran on to be second-best and has enough speed to find a good spot in the early portion of this race; the surface is the major question as she's never raced on polytrack; barn is 3-6 ($3.50 ROI) over the past 5 years with 2yos going dirt/synthetic; capable.

5. MILAM (Street Sense - Autumnal, by Forestry)
Handled next-out winner J J Julep (win by six lengths with a 59 Beyer on turf at Ellis, then ran second in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies with a 62) in a race in which the top two finishers ran 1-2 around the track; she was part of a legitimate pace in the Pocahontas before fading (runner-up came back to run 2nd in the Alcibiades); another that must answer the polytrack question, but the turnback in distance should help; factor; "good strong finish, last quarter in 23 seconds," according to 10/1 Keeneland Clocker Report; contender.

6. MACO LIGHT (Silver Train - Lumina, by Devil's Bag)
Thought the inside was pretty good at Arlington on September 15, and Maco Light saved ground in the pocket behind the favored pacesetter before easing out three wide turning for home; came with a professional run to prevail over a late-runner that returned to finish 2nd here on October 6 with a 63 Beyer; she earned a competitive Beyer and may get a nice setup tracking a solid pace up front; "was in reserve throughout, easily better than Contributor," according to 10/4 Keeneland Clocker Report; factor.

7. HENNY JENNEY (Henny Hughes - Delizia, by Distant View)
Not sure she beat much at Presque Isle Downs (only one of the five next-out runners returned to crack the trifecta with Beyers ranging from 12-57); tracked the pace along the inside before angling out to split rivals turning for home; she settled matters quickly once set down for the drive and was drawing away despite hopping back to her left lead late; she should appreciate a good pace in this spot; not out of this.

8. CYNICAL STORM (Sky Mesa - Alina, by Came Home)
Pletcher-trained filly handled Mallory Street (returned to finish a well-beaten 3rd in the Sorority at Monmouth); 3rd-finisher needed a drop to 30K sellers in order to graduate; she was hustled out of there to gain position, but was in a bit tight on the rail entering the turn; the inside opened up midway on the bend and she shot on through to take command; dug in late to fend off the runner-up and may work out a good outside stalking trip here; for all of his successes, Pletcher is only 2-22 (11%, $0.47 ROI) over the past five years with 2yos going dirt/synthetic (0-8 in sprints); can't ignore.

9. BEAUTIFUL DANCER (Notional - Beauty School, by Private School)
Beat a good enough field during the spring meet (second- and third-place finishers are now stakes-placed), but the layoff is something of a concern; showed a couple of gears as she was in front after the opening sixteenth only to yield to the eventual pacesetter; wasn't fazed by the inside as she moved up along the rail to grab the lead at the furlong marker; looked to be getting leg-weary, but just held off the runner-up; "was not asked for effort, in company with Infliction," according to 10/3 Keeneland Clocker Report

SELECTIONS:
1. Angie's Prim Lady
2. Milam
3. Maco Light

THE PLAY:
Angie's Prim Lady to WIN at 3-1 odds or greater