Juvenile sales impacted by pandemic

A filly by freshman sire Not This Time sold for $1.35 million to lead a quartet of horses who dropped the hammer at seven figures as an unprecedented juvenile sales season in North America came to an end this month with market restraint apparent.

With the coronavirus pandemic causing cancellations and postponements across the Thoroughbred industry, four onsite sales dedicated to juveniles were held by the three major North American auction houses in 2020, compared to seven sales in 2019. The Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co. was the only one of those companies to hold its entire calendar, albeit rescheduled. The company began the season with its March sale, for which the breeze show was already underway as the pandemic escalated. The company subsequently pushed its spring sale to June, resulting in its June sale being pushed to July.

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Fasig-Tipton held its Midlantic 2-year-olds in training sale in late June, postponed from its usual May dates following the nearby Preakness Stakes, as the second leg of the Triple Crown has been postponed to October. The company was forced to scrap its juvenile sales scheduled at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Keeneland also canceled its April sale of juveniles, along with its spring race meeting.

The Thoroughbred bloodstock market typically proceeds with caution in response to economic uncertainty, as seen following the market crash of fall 2008, which caused sale figures and stud fees to plummet. The pandemic has resulted in stock market instability and a high unemployment rate. Additionally, this year’s juvenile sales market was fighting an uphill battle even without those external factors. The 2019 renewals of the OBS spring sale and Fasig-Tipton Midlantic finished with record figures, and the March sale was led by a record-priced horse, figures that this year’s sales were going to be hard-pressed to match. And indeed, the cumulative average price for all 1,760 juveniles sold between the four major-market sales this season finished at $72,014. The drop from an average of $97,789 last year for 2,120 horses who changed hands suggests a ceiling on the market, with buyers restrained in how far they will stretch their spending.

The cumulative buyback rate was an encouraging 31 percent, ticking upward only slightly from 29 percent last year. That figure suggests an urgency on both sides of the marketplace. With fewer sales, buyers were forced to compete strongly to fill their orders, and consignors were eager to move their stock in the limited opportunities available.

One constant during the unusual season was the commercial popularity of Not This Time, one of the early leaders of his freshman sire class, with three winners through July 16. Not This Time, a Grade 3 winner as a juvenile, averaged $63,746 from 68 first-crop yearlings sold at public auction last year, more than four times their conception stud fee of $15,000 at Taylor Made Farm. The Giant’s Causeway horse averaged $175,216 from 37 juveniles sold this year, led by the $1.35 million filly who topped the OBS spring sale.

The filly, who is not yet named, was purchased by bloodstock agent Gary Young, working for an undisclosed client, from the consignment of Top Line Sales, as agent. She worked a quarter-mile in 20 1/5 seconds on the Ocala Training Center’s Safetrack surface during the under-tack preview, the fastest time at that distance. She has continued to show that speed while working four times for trainer Bob Baffert since the sale, most recently working a bullet half mile in 47 seconds on July 16 at Del Mar.

The filly is out of the Grade 3-winning Wilko mare Sheza Smoke Show, dam of one winner from two starters to date.

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The second-highest price of the season also emerged from OBS spring, as a Quality Road colt sold for $1.25 million to Arman Shah, with Ben McElroy acting as agent. Other juveniles to bring the hammer down at seven figures were a $1.1 million Uncle Mo colt purchased by Donato Lanni, as agent for Michael Lund Petersen, at Fasig Midlantic, and a $1.1 million colt by freshman sire Speightster purchased by Larry Best at OBS spring. However, Best later voided that sale during the grace period after the auction when the colt was discovered to be a cribber, and his original connections plan to retain and race him.

The next two prices on the leaderboard belonged to Candy Ride, with a colt sold for $875,000 to Young at Fasig Midlantic, and a colt sold for $800,000 to D.J. Stable at OBS spring. Next down were a $750,000 Ghostzapper colt purchased by McElroy, as agent for Shah, at OBS spring; and a $725,000 colt from the first crop of California Chrome purchased by West Bloodstock at OBS spring as agent for the partnership of Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable.

Five other juveniles sold for $700,000 this season, including a pair by Distorted Humor – a colt purchased by West Bloodstock for Robert and Lawana Low at OBS July, and a filly purchased by Lanni, as agent for Baoma Corp, at OBS spring. Not This Time was represented by a $700,000 colt sold to Lanni for Petersen at OBS spring, while his half-brother Liam’s Map matched that price with a filly sold to Rigney Racing at the same sale. Rounding out the juveniles at that price point is an Empire Maker colt purchased by Mike Shannon, agent for Russell Welch, at the spring sale.