Justify can form one-horse club with Belmont Stakes win

ELMONT, N.Y. – The list is short, a mere 12, reflecting the difficult achievement of winning three races in five weeks at three different tracks in three different states at three different distances, the requirements of sweeping the Triple Crown.

Shorter still is the list of those who have done it while still unbeaten. It starts and ends with Seattle Slew.

Justify seeks to join those lists when he goes for glory in the 150th Belmont Stakes on Saturday here at Belmont Park, but he also has a chance to forge his own exclusive list. Justify did not make his first start until Feb. 18, and no horse has ever captured the Triple Crown without having started at age 2.

Justify already has proven he is a rare talent, as he became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a start at 2 since Apollo in 1882. Five weeks after that, and following a victory in the Preakness three weeks ago in Baltimore, he looks to take his place on racing’s Mount Rushmore.

“It’s been an incredible journey,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “It’s been quick. He’s handled everything thrown at him without losing his composure. A lot of horses get nervous, hot. He thrives on this. Not only is he a great athlete, but he has a great mind. In the Derby, the Preakness, he was in the paddock like he’d handled it all before. He’s a very fearless type of horse.”

That professionalism appears to have followed Justify to New York. His first morning at Belmont Park on Thursday was impressive, as he galloped with authority after marching to the track as if he’d been here all his life.

“I’ll sleep better tonight,” Baffert said as Justify finished his gallop.

There are nine entered against him. If Justify wins, he will set a record for the most opponents beaten in a Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown at stake, adding further to his burgeoning legend. If he loses, he will join an even longer list, becoming the 21st horse since 1944 – and the 13th since 1979 – to win the Derby and Preakness and fall short when competing[not including I’ll Have Another} in the Belmont.

A victory would make Baffert only the second trainer to have a pair of Triple Crown winners, following Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons, who trained Gallant Fox (1930) and Omaha (1935).

This marks the fifth time Baffert has come into the Belmont with a colt who won the Derby and Preakness. His first three – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem – all lost, but then American Pharoah ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought in 2015 and became the 12th and most recent to sweep the Triple Crown.

“It’s exciting, stressful,” Baffert said of the quest.

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He said Silver Charm and Real Quiet “fired, they just got beat.”

War Emblem stumbled at the start, “but I’m not sure he would have got it done,” Baffert said. He said the Triple Crown “was catching up with him. He was a light horse.”

American Pharoah, “I thought would do it,” Baffert said, “but you always have that doubt. I’ve seen others I thought could do it.”

The Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races at 1 1/2 miles, one lap around this expansive main track. It will be the only time Justify ever races that far.

“I’m a realist,” Baffert said. “I don’t believe it until I see it.”

Justify had his toughest test to date in the Preakness, winning by a half-length after daylight victories in his four previous starts. It was similar to the struggle American Pharoah had in the 2015 Derby – a horse who still prevailed when running below his optimum.

“You can only get away with that when you have a superior horse,” Baffert said.

Justify has come far and fast. After making his debut less than four months ago, he will be making the sixth start of a highly compressed career. He’s a big, powerful colt, and that constitution seems to have served him well in this unprecedented endeavor, for he still looks as though he’s carrying good weight. There are no signs the Triple Crown rigors are wearing him down.

Still, that final quarter-mile of the Belmont Stakes has swallowed many a Triple Crown bid. This is Justify’s race to lose.

“He’s a monster,” said trainer Dale Romans, who will try to beat him with Free Drop Billy, who was 16th in the Derby. “He’s a special horse. It’s fun, exciting to be part of something that could be historic.”

Having drawn the rail, Justify’s strategy seems obvious. He likely will go the lead under jockey Mike Smith and try to spurn anyone who tries to go with him. The question is whether the cumulative toll of all the races in the short amount of time finally gets to him. If not, this campaign will be one for the ages.

The key horses trying to beat Justify are Hofburg, who was a troubled seventh in the Derby; Noble Indy and Vino Rosso, trained by three-time Belmont winner Todd Pletcher; and Bravazo and Tenfold, both beaten less than one length by Justify in the Preakness.

Hofburg will be the second choice to Justify. His trainer, Bill Mott, won the Belmont in 2010 with Drosselmeyer.

“I think our horse has plenty of stamina,” Mott said. “That’s his forte. He keeps coming. I think he fits the profile of a horse who’ll like the Belmont.

“I have a lot of respect for Justify. It’s a major challenge to beat him. But you can’t let him go around by himself.”

Noble Indy – who is removing blinkers for the race – is co-owned by WinStar Farm, which also co-owns Justify. While it would be surprising for Noble Indy to go too fast too soon against Justify, he does possess early speed, and the intent is for him to be forwardly placed. His co-owner Mike Repole, who also co-owns Vino Rosso, dearly wants to win this race.

“He’s a New York guy,” Pletcher said. “He loves participating in these races.”

Vino Rosso “will appreciate a mile and a half,” said Pletcher, adding that he believes the Belmont is the Triple Crown race “he’s best suited for based on his ability to stay, and with more time, the better he’s going to be.”

The other three runners are making their first appearance in a Triple Crown race. Blended Citizen comes off a victory over this track in the Peter Pan. Restoring Hope, also trained by Baffert, is still eligible to a first-level allowance and is running at the urging of owner Gary West. Gronkowski, sure to take money being named for and now co-owned by tight end Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots, is making his first start since being imported to this country and turned over to trainer Chad Brown. He will race on Lasix for the first time.

The Belmont goes as race 11 on a Breeders’ Cup-quality card that includes five other Grade 1 stakes – the Met Mile, Manhattan, Acorn, Just a Game, and Ogden Phipps – as well as the three Grade 2 races – the Brooklyn, Woody Stephens, and Jaipur – and the listed Easy Goer. First post for the 13-race card is 11:35 a.m. Eastern.

Post time for the Belmont is 6:46 p.m. The race will be televised live by NBC beginning at 4 p.m., with coverage from 2-4 on NBCSN. The radio broadcast of the Belmont on HRRN begins at 5 p.m.

The Derby and Preakness were run on off tracks. The forecast for Saturday has ebbed and flowed this week, but as of Thursday, The Weather Channel predicted a 40 percent of afternoon showers on Saturday, with a high of 79 degrees.

POST	HORSE / SIRE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	DERBY FINISH, BEYER	PREAKNESS FINISH, BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
		- designates Keeneland sale graduate
1	Justify		4-5	1-1	107	1st, 103	1st, 97	JP: Clearly best of this crop. Only question will be if cumulative toll of campaign finally wears him down.
	by Scat Daddy							MW: I'm a big fan. Didn't care about his lack of 2yo foundation in Derby, but fear it could hurt him now.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
2	Free Drop Billy		30-1	30-1	90	16th, 43	**	JP: Just don't think he's made any advancement from 2-year-old form. Saved ground in Derby, retreated.
	by Union Rags							MW: The problem with his static form from 2 to 3 is his 2yo form looked better on paper than it really was.
	Owner: Albaugh Family Stables; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado
3	Bravazo		8-1	8-1	96	6th, 91	2nd, 96	JP: Hearty sort only one beside Justify to compete in entire Triple Crown. Distance shouldn't hinder him.
	by Awesome Again							MW: Followed through on improved effort in Derby with an even better try in Preakness; has a chance.
	Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Saez
4	Hofburg		9-2	5-1	94	7th, 90	**	JP: Had severe traffic when trying to rally on far turn in Derby. Benefits from five-week break. Dangerous.
	by Tapit							MW: He's my pick, and I know I'm far from alone on that. Fine try in Derby, primed for a big effort now.
	Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
5	Restoring Hope		30-1	20-1	90	**	**	JP: Still eligible to a first-level allowance. Better suited to that than again being thrown to the wolves.
	by Giant's Causeway							MW: I can forgive his flop in the slop last time. His Wood, though, makes me wonder if he wants distance.
	Owner: Gary & Mary West; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Florent Geroux
6	Gronkowski		12-1	15-1	n/a	**	**	JP: Certain to take money due to name, but ran against far softer overseas. Local works have been fine.
	by Lonhro							MW: I guessed he'll be around 15-1. He could be lower. But I think his actual chances are around 60-1.
	Owner: Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited, et al; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
7	Tenfold		12-1	10-1	95	**	3rd, 95	JP: Like Justify, has come long way since February debut. Loomed up in Preakness, swapped leads late.
	by Curlin							MW: He ran okay in the Preakness and does have license to improve. Might be the main overlay here.
	Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
8	Vino Rosso		8-1	6-1	98	9th, 88	**	JP: Took scenic route in Derby. This is Pletcher's signature move, skip Preakness to be primed for Belmont.
	by Curlin							MW: I just wish he showed a bit more life in the Derby. He was really out of gas through the stretch run.
	Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
9	Noble Indy		30-1	20-1	95	17th, 42	**	JP: Derby was first time on slop, gave way without a fight. Rider took care of him, didn't persevere late.
	by Take Charge Indy							MW: Even on his favorite surface and off his best race, he seems a decided cut below the best here.
	Owner: WinStar Farm & Repole Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
10	Blended Citizen		15-1	20-1	90	**	**	JP: Had a made-to-order setup in Peter Pan, finished well to prevail, but don't think that field was much.
	by Proud Citizen							MW: No question he has improved with racing, in blinkers, but he needs a big step forward to contend.
	Owner: Greg Hall and SAYJAY Racing; Trainer: Doug O'Neill; Jockey: Kyle Frey