Just Might goes from turf to dirt in Chesapeake Bay

He is very good on turf, but the horse just might be even better on dirt.

Just Might beat a sharp rival, Francatelli, racing on turf Aug. 2 at Colonial in the $100,000 Da Hoss Stakes, and on Monday he takes his talents to dirt in the $100,000 Chesapeake Bay.

A distance change might pose a greater challenge than the surface switch. Just Might has raced farther than 5 1/2 furlongs only once in his 27-start career, finishing a close second in an Indiana Grand allowance race in June 2019.

His trainer, Michelle Lovell, said this past winter that she hesitated trying Just Might in dirt sprint stakes at a standard distance like six furlongs because the 5-year-old gelding excels racing five and 5 1/2 furlongs, but Just Might is getting his chance Monday in the six-furlong Chesapeake Bay.

The Chesapeake Bay, race 8, is the last of four $100,000 dirt stakes on the Monday card that are part of the Mid-Atlantic Championship Series, commonly known by the acronym, MATCH.

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Lovell, who co-owns and co-bred Just Might with Griffon Farms, contemplated races like the Count Fleet at Oaklawn this spring following Just Might’s mighty victory in the Feb. 12 Colonel Power at Fair Grounds. That race was rained from turf to dirt, and Just Might won by five lengths over Extravagant Kid, who won the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint – albeit on turf – in late March. Just Might earned a career-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the Colonel Power, and that was not the first time he’d popped a huge race on the main track.

In January 2020, racing over a sloppy Fair Grounds surface, Just Might won a first-level allowance race by nearly eight lengths, earning a 99 Beyer. Monday, he’s well drawn on the outside of an eight-horse field, a post position from which jockey Colby Hernandez can incrementally dole out Just Might’s speed while spying pace rivals to his inside – if any exist. Just Might could prove the clear speed of the race, though trying to make all the running at a stamina-testing distance can be demanding.

Whereshetoldmetogo, Laki, Mucho, and Long Range Toddy all will have a chance to run down Just Might if the six furlongs prove his undoing.

Mott with three favorites

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is a three-time winner of the most important race at Colonial Downs, the Virginia Derby, but Mott hasn’t started a horse at Colonial since 2011 and hasn’t won a race there since 2006.

Bettors will expect that to change when Mott sends out likely favorites in three stakes Monday. Frank’s Rockette figures to be odds-on in the seven-furlong Seeking the Pearl, while South Bend is the probable chalk in the Victory Gallop and Paris Lights surely will be the public choice in the Love Sign.

Frank’s Rockette might be the shortest price of the three, but also could be vulnerable. A 4-year-old Into Mischief filly bred and owned by Frank Fletcher, Frank’s Rockette’s career mark stands at an admirable 8-5-1 from 15 starts, but at age 4 the filly, if anything, appears slower than she was at age 3. Frank’s Rockette has two wins, a second, and a third from her four 2021 starts, a record hard to fault, but she worked pretty hard to win the Saylorville at Prairie Meadows as the 1-10 favorite. And rather than give her a shot at Saratoga, connections have gone on the road to Colonial. They land in a race over seven furlongs, a distance on the far end of Frank’s Rockette’s scope.

Cheetara is the upset pick. In her native Chile, Cheetara, a Group 2 winner, won over distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Transferred earlier this year into the barn of trainer Ignacio Correas, Cheetara made her U.S. debut July 26 at Colonial, breaking from the rail and finishing second by a neck to Seeking the Pearl entrant Never Enough Time in an encouraging comeback start. She stands to improve and is more certain to see out the distance than Frank’s Rockette.

Paris Lights won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks last summer at Saratoga, but as with Frank’s Rockette, it’s fair to wonder if she has come forward much from age 3 to 4. She narrowly won a weak renewal of the Grade 3 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct, beating four foes in April, and then was defeated by 11 lengths in the La Troienne and by more than seven in the $150,000 Shawnee Stakes, both at Churchill, before being freshened.

Bajan Girl has the ability to beat Paris Lights, presumably at much better win odds. She struggled over a wet track two back in the Delaware Handicap but was fourth in the La Troienne, outrunning Paris Lights, and has both 3-year-old form and a recent race at Monmouth validating that performance.

South Bend, though, should win. He ran respectably switching to turf last out in the Lure Stakes at Saratoga and in his previous start, the Grade 2 Stephen Foster, ran into a much tougher group than he faces Monday in Virginia.