Jing Jing Win could outrun his rating in Southorn Handicap

At the bottom of the ratings might lurk a top contender for the $239,210 Southorn Handicap on Wednesday night at Happy Valley Racecourse in Hong Kong.

At 83, Jing Jing Win is the lowest rated horse among 12 in the main body of the Southorn, but there is reason to believe he has a decent chance in the 1200-meter Class 2 handicap that’s co-featured on an eight-race program.

Race 5, the Siu Sai Wan Handicap, is, like the Southorn, a Class 2 open to horses rated 100-80, but its 1650 meters, one lap around Happy Valley, where the Southorn is as 1200-meter sprint. The card begins at 6:19 a.m. Eastern.

Jing Jing Win is a 5-year-old Australian-bred gelding with just eight starts in Hong Kong, and he rose from a 52 rating when he began racing last season to a 77 by the end of it. Jing Jing Win won his first start this season, a Class 3, and his last three races have come in Class 2, with Jing Jing Win a good enough fourth three races ago and an even better closing third, despite a bit of early trouble, two back.

:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, and analysis

Then come the negatives. Jing Jing Win has raced only at Sha Tin, and it’s anyone’s guess how he handles the tighter, more irregular Happy Valley course. Also, there’s the matter of his most recent start, a total no-show in which Jing Jing Win finished 12th. His excuses – a slow start, an early steady, a 1400-meter trip perhaps longer than his best – won’t suffice to explain away the performance, but Jing Jing Win gets his regular jockey Zac Purton back, and at 118 pounds he carries 10 less than top-rated Perpetual Joyance.

Perpetual Joyance won a race just like the Southorn on Jan. 10 but returned Jan. 21 with a flat eighth at Sha Tin and might still be descending from his peak. Perhaps a better gamble Wednesday is Super Fluke, who was third to Perpetual Joyance in the Jan. 10 Happy Valley heat after putting together a three-race win streak to begin his season.

The Golden Age looks well spotted in race 5, the Sui Sai Wan, for trainer Tony Cruz and jockey Matthew Chadwick. The Golden Age, a French-bred 4-year-old not fully exposed after just six Hong Kong starts, has found a home making the pace in Happy Valley races this season. He led and finished second last out going 1800 meters in the Group 3 January Cup, and started his current campaign with a front-running Happy Valley win at Wednesday night’s distance and class level. Dinozzo, who rallied for third in the January Cup, and Marvel Hero, who was fourth, also are part of the Sui Sai Wan field, though Dinozzo’s form strongly suggests he needs more distance than he gets Wednesday night.