Jerardi: War Story intriguing alternative to Eagle

Before we look forward to two stakes Saturday, let’s look back and see what was learned last weekend.

Calculator ran right to his Beyer Speed Figures when he dominated the Sham Stakes. He may have been a maiden, but Calculator was a very distinguished maiden with ascending Beyers of 69, 77, 90, and 95 in four starts. That he was able to win with total ease and get a 97 in the Sham after being away from the races for 100 days is a rather strong hint that this colt might be a serious player in 2015.

Lea came right back to his winter 2014 form with a solid win in the Hal’s Hope while getting a 106 Beyer, right in between the 101 he got in the 2014 Hal’s Hope and the 114 he got in the 2014 Donn Handicap.

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Hoppertunity won the San Pasqual but did not come close to delivering the powerhouse performance I had been anticipating. With a dream setup and a perfect rail trip, the horse’s Beyer regressed 10 points from his win in the Nov. 29 Clark Handicap. It was a 104 then, a 94 last Saturday. As signs go, this was not a good one.

The 3-year-old focus now heads to New Orleans with the Lecomte. Eagle made a giant step forward when a close third to El Kabeir in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The colt’s Beyer went from 78 to 93 that day. So, here’s the question: Is that going to be the norm?

Obviously, El Kabeir’s dominant performance in his Jan. 3 Jerome Stakes win validates the Kentucky Jockey Club figure. So, there is that, and there is the fact that Eagle is a son of Candy Ride. Why wouldn’t he get better with racing?

I really think Eagle is likely to run right back to that 93 or perhaps even better now that he has had another seven weeks to develop. And if he does run in the mid-90s, one of these lightly raced horses is going to have to take the kind of jump Eagle took in Kentucky to beat him.

El Kabeir is the only horse to run back from the Kentucky Jockey Club so far. We will know even more about that race’s quality after Eagle and International Star, fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club, run in the Lecomte.

War Story has the kind of Beyer pattern that intrigues me. He got a 75 when he won his maiden at Churchill Downs, and he did it while coming from well off the pace at seven furlongs, a very positive development for a horse making his first start. Then, he showed enough speed to stay close to the pace going longer, got bounced around a bit, and won going away again, improving his Beyer by eight points to an 83.

Do I know that War Story has another eight-point improvement in store while coming back in just three weeks? I don’t, but I like everything about those first two races, and I like that he is in the barn of Tom Amoss, one of America’s top trainers who happens to be on a wild 44 percent roll at Fair Grounds.

Tiznow R J is a horse not likely to run back to his 86 Beyer earned when winning his maiden Dec. 11 at Fair Grounds. He got a pair of 69s in his first two races before getting loose on an easy lead in slow fractions and winning by 13 1/4 lengths, an optimal scenario to earn a big Beyer.

I’m not quite sure what to make of Runhappy, a dominant winner in his only start, where he earned an 84 Beyer on Polytrack at Turfway Park. I would lean against him running back to that number on dirt against far better competition.

If the early speed develops like it appears it should in the Sunshine Millions Classic, I see no reason why East Hall, who won the prep and reached a new Beyer level with a 96 and 95 late in his 3-year-old season, won’t run right back to those numbers again.

Transparent has two triple-digit Beyers, so the talent is clearly there. When he runs big, he runs really big, but he also has races where he doesn’t run at all.