Jerardi: Upstart brings Beyer consistency to Florida Derby

I am reasonably certain that I have never picked a winner on Polytrack or correctly projected a Beyer Speed Figure on that surface. So, no, I did not see a solid grass horse like Dubai Sky, with a pair of 78s, zooming to a 92 and winning the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Royal Son got a 97 in the John Battaglia Memorial in his first Polytrack try and his first race with blinkers. He earned that number with the lead. Without the lead, the colt fell back to an 83.

Firing Line confirmed how good he is and how good Dortmund is when he crushed an overmatched field in the Sunland Derby. His 97 Beyer was not as good as his 104 when second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but it did not have to be.

On to the most significant prep Saturday of the year so far. The Florida Derby is an absolutely fascinating puzzle.

Upstart is the most consistent horse in the race by far. In six lifetime starts, he has never run poorly and sometimes run brilliantly. His Beyers of 85, 95, 102, 92, 106, and 95 speak to his capability. I can come up with no reason why this colt won’t fire big again.

I can come up with two reasons why Upstart might not win – the potentially slow pace and Materiality.

I kept looking for speed horses and really did not find any. It is certainly possible that Jack Tripp could go, but he would have to improve dramatically to have any chance of winning.

Materiality was fast enough to battle for the lead in a sprint race Jan. 11. And he was talented enough to prompt the pace of Stanford, a recent sprint winner with a 92 Beyer, and run away from him in the stretch to get a 104 Beyer when winning a March 6 stakes.

A decade after Afleet Alex dominated his generation, this son of Afleet Alex is obviously playing catch-up, but talent is talent. And a 104 Beyer in a second start screams ability.

Couple the figure with the lack of pace, and there is a better-than-good chance that Materiality gets a dream trip and runs right back to that 104.

If he does get close to that 104, Upstart is going to have to come back to his Holy Bull Stakes performance to win. And he definitely could. Thus, a very fascinating race.

Without going over the Fountain of Youth disqualification controversy again, the reality is that Itsaknockout has gotten better in each of his three starts, but his 90 when second to Upstart in the Fountain of Youth is not going to get it done.

In contrast to the Florida Derby, the Louisiana Derby is filled with pace, just not including the race’s two most accomplished horses.

Stanford, Mr. Z, A Day in Paradise, and St. Joe Bay all should be prominent early. If the pace is fast and contested, it is going to be very hard to keep one of the favorites, War Story or International Star, out of the winner’s circle.

Speaking of Afleet Alex, War Story, a son of Afleet Alex’s sire, Northern Afleet, was purchased exactly 10 years after Afleet Alex at the same Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sale at Timonium, Md., right after the Preakness. War Story cost a mere $51,000 as opposed to Alex’s princely $75,000.

I love horses with War Story’s Beyer pattern – 75, 86, 86, 91. This colt has a run in him, and he’s given it every time. It will be interesting to see how big the run is with a potentially hot pace in front of him.

International Star was all over the place last year – five tracks, three surfaces. He does not train at Fair Grounds but obviously has found a home with wins in the Lecomte and Risen Star, with respective Beyers of 90 and 93. Loved the brilliant rail ride by Miguel Mena in the Risen Star. Does the colt have another forward move? Does he necessarily need it to win?

If you are looking for a deep closer whom the pace could really help, Keen Ice, third in the Risen Star and rolling late, could be the right horse.

There are no Beyer figures for Australia, Japan, or the United Arab Emirates, but on the known numbers, the Dubai World Cup looks like a two-horse race between California Chrome and Lea.

California Chrome got a 105 when second to Shared Belief in the San Antonio Stakes. When Shared Belief came back to get a 111 in his dominant Santa Anita Handicap win, that only made California Chrome’s effort look better. And his works suggest that he is going to run giant, perhaps all the way back to the effort that got him a 113 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Twenty years after Cigar, Bill Mott is back with a really fast horse in Lea, who has posted Beyers of 112 and 107 this year after topping out at 114 last year. He probably will be spotting California Chrome a few lengths in a race that might have little pace, but he should come running in the lane.