Jerardi: Upstart, Barbados look solid in Holy Bull, Hutcheson

I wish all horses ran consistently from race to race, but that is not reality. I have no particular explanation for why Eagle ran so poorly in last Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes other than it is horse racing. He got a 93 Beyer Speed Figure when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but just a 72 when he never ran at all in the Lecomte. International Star won the Lecomte with just an 89, a five-point improvement from his Kentucky Jockey Club performance. War Story continued forward with an 85 in the Lecomte.

Sr. Quisqueyano got all the way back to a career-best 101 when he won the Sunshine Millions Classic. He won the Eight Miles East Stakes at Gulfstream in April 2013 with a 101. He also got a 100 when he won the 2013 Calder Derby. So, there was precedent for the performance. East Hall went forward yet again with a 100 when second in the Classic. Transparent is in and out. In the Classic, he was way out.

On to this Saturday and the Holy Bull and Hutcheson stakes at Gulfstream Park.

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Upstart fascinates me. The New York-bred was awesome in his first two races, getting an 85 and 95 against statebreds. Then, he got a 102 when second to Daredevil in the Champagne and a 92 when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So, this horse has run four times and run well every time.

Upstart enters off a layoff of almost three months, but I liked everything about this horse’s 2-year-old campaign. I like the horse’s running style and his Beyers. I would be surprised if he doesn’t run another solid race and get another solid Beyer in the Holy Bull.

Frosted was second in the Remsen and got an 89 Beyer, same as when he won his maiden. It’s hard to evaluate the Remsen yet because none of the first four horses has run back.

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Bluegrass Singer won the Mucho Macho Man with a 92 after getting a 90 in an optional claimer. So, he is certainly a contender and looks like he could be the controlling speed, just as he was in those two wins.

The Illinois-bred Dom the Bomb is 3 for 3 in statebred races, winning each by wide margins (a combined 20 3/4 lengths) and getting Beyers of 70, 91, and 83. He led early before fading and getting a 72 at Keeneland in his only race against open company. This is obviously a major jump in class.

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Dom the Bomb and Bluegrass Singer, both early speed horses, are cross-entered in the Hutcheson. If they are in the same race, that could change things for both with their similar running styles. It sounds like Bluegrass Singer is more likely for the Holy Bull and Dom the Bomb for the Hutcheson. Regardless of what they do, the Hutcheson has two very intriguing horses – Barbados and X Y Jet.

Barbados is the classic improving 3-year-old. He was very good in his only dirt race, earning an 81 Beyer with an off-the-pace win at Keeneland on Oct. 16. His running style suggested he was a contender in the Jan. 3 Spectacular Bid if he could improve his speed figure. He did not just improve it; he showed a completely different dimension, running by a strong favorite, Ready for Rye, and winning with total ease while getting a 95 Beyer, suggesting that the additional furlong of the Hutcheson is not going to be any kind of problem. On the numbers, this is definitely the horse to beat.

X Y Jet was good enough to get an 89 when he won his maiden and another 89 when losing the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs by a neck. If you throw out his fourth in the Buffalo Man Stakes, in which he encountered significant traffic trouble, this horse has really been solid in every race, starting with his Aug. 3 debut. The question is: Does X Y Jet have another forward move, the kind of move it is almost certainly going to take to win the Hutcheson?