Jerardi: Tepin’s top form merits respect in Diana
If every horse were like Sheer Drama, this game would be quite a bit more predictable. The 5-year-old Sheer Drama entered last Saturday’s Delaware Handicap with recent Beyer Speed Figures of 91, 99, 93, and 94, a series of top performances that none of her six rivals could match. She won the Delaware Handicap convincingly with a 97 Beyer. Interestingly, Rosalind, who had never hit 90 on the Beyer scale, was favored, obviously due to the Chad Brown factor. As hot as Brown has been, even he could not beat the figures.
Anyone who watched Tepin win the Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day with a career-best 100 Beyer was lined up to bet against her in the Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day. The 4-year-old Tepin cleared the field in moderate fractions at Churchill and improved her best Beyer by 10 points. Given an outside post and a different scenario at Belmont, she really figured to regress. She not only did not regress, she ran better, winning from just off the pace and getting a 101.
Tepin is now perfect in three 2015 starts and is clearly a dramatically improved horse. None of the horses in the Diana at Saratoga has hit 100 on the Beyer scale this year, so Tepin, with the inside post, a two-way style, and those Beyers, is now a horse who must be respected.
Stephanie’s Kitten has earned her respect over a 21-race career that includes $2.7 million in earnings, multiple Grade 1 wins, and more than a few triple-digit Beyers. The issue with the 6-year-old is her current form. It appears as if she may have lost a step, but that is not definite. Her two 2015 races do not provide conclusive evidence. And when you ask the crucial question, “Has Stephanie’s Kitten run fast enough to win this race,” the answer obviously is yes.
Stablemate Kitten’s Queen is going to ensure an honest pace, which should help Stephanie’s Kitten’s late kick. Hard Not to Like is closing in on $1 million in earnings and won a Grade 1 at Santa Anita in May. Waltzing Matilda won her American debut with a 92 Beyer, beating Stephanie’s Kitten, among others. My Miss Sophia could not have been much more impressive in her grass debut but jumps into the deep water here. Lady Lara chased Tepin in those two impressive wins, getting closer last time, when she got a 97 for the second time in her last three races.
The San Diego Handicap at Del Mar is an absolutely fascinating handicapping puzzle. All but one of the eight horses has hit 100 on the Beyer scale, but how this race is going to be run is more likely to decide it than who is running in it.
Catch a Flight had consecutive Beyers of 105, 102, and 106 before slipping to a 96 when third in the Gold Cup. I don’t think the horse really regressed. It looked like Catch a Flight moved too quickly into the hottest part of a very hot pace and just did not have enough to finish. Gary Stevens said he thought he moved too soon in the 1 1/4-mile race. Going 330 yards shorter, I would expect that kind of move to be much more effective.
Hoppertunity was barely beaten in the Gold Cup, but his recent Beyer ceiling is unchanged with a 95, 94, 98, and 98 in his four 2015 starts. I think his great Gold Cup close was partly a result of the pace meltdown.
Appealing Tale may not win, but he will have a lot to say about who does. He ran brilliantly to be second to Masochistic in the Triple Bend, and if he was fast enough to be that close in a sprint, obviously he can be in front going longer, as he was in three straight one-mile races early in 2014.
And if Appealing Tale makes the front, that means Bayern won’t be in front. And that is a big problem for the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Some have looked at Bayern’s 2015 form as a mystery with two last-place finishes. Actually, both races were consistent with his history. If Bayern makes the lead, he can beat any horse in training, as he proved last year with Beyers of 108, 111, 110, and 113 while winning the Woody Stephens, Haskell, Pennsylvania Derby, and BC Classic. If he doesn’t make the lead, he gets trounced. His last four losses were by a combined 80 lengths. Bayern is a one-way horse, definitely the kind you would like to bet on or against after the field has gone 100 yards or so.