Jerardi: Slight edge to California Chrome over Shared Belief

Before we get to a Beyer Speed Figure examination of the biggest February weekend I can remember, let’s see what was learned last weekend.

The 3-year-old fillies are what we thought they were – slow. Callback won the Las Virgenes Stakes with just an 85 Beyer. Conquest Two Step proved that his second to Shared Belief at 72-1 in the Malibu was no fluke by winning the Palos Verdes and getting a career-best 105. And that performance suggests that Shared Belief’s win was even better than it looked. Secret Circle did not win the Palos Verdes, but his 102 in defeat was much more like his career norm than the 88 he got in the Midnight Lute.

I did not go over the San Vicente last week, but it is instructive. Lord Nelson won it with a 91, going back to similar numbers he had earned as a 2-year-old. Some might dismiss Texas Red’s defeat because it was his first race of the year and the seven-furlong distance was not his best. There may be some truth to both, but I think the 90 Beyer that Texas Red got may be a better indicator of his true ability than the 104 he got in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he ran into a pace meltdown and almost had to look good. I would suggest betting against him until he gets back to that 104, if he ever does.

On to the San Antonio, the Donn, and two stakes for 3-year-olds. Is there any reason to think the San Antonio is anything other than what it seems – a battle between California Chrome and Shared Belief? I don’t think so. I thought Hoppertunity was going to take a big Beyer step forward in the San Pasqual. Instead, his Beyer dropped nine points with a dream trip – not a positive. Imperative has twice gotten a 107, the kind of number that may win this race. He was 26-1 when he won the Charles Town Classic and 37-1 when third to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic. Those performances really look like aberrations.

So, Shared Belief or California Chrome? I lean toward California Chrome. He has his preferred outside post. He has one speed horse (Alfa Bird) to chase, so he should get the trip he loves. We now know he can hit 113 on the Beyer scale, as he did when third in the BC Classic. I think he is going to run huge, perhaps back to that 113 or even better.

:: SAN ANTONIO: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

But California Chrome could run huge and still lose. Shared Belief is that good. He has six triple-digit Beyers in his last eight races and barely missed in two other career races. He has only lost once, and he never had a fair chance in the BC Classic. We don’t know if Shared Belief can hit 113 on dirt, but he did get that 115 on Polytrack in the Pacific Classic. Do not forget that this horse got a 106 in the CashCall Futurity as a 2-year-old, an indicator of rare talent.

The Donn has several really good horses and one brilliant horse. Constitution, Commissioner, East Hall, Protonico, and Prayer for Relief all have hit the low to mid-100s, the kinds of figures that can win some stakes. But that won’t work in this stakes if Lea runs back to his 2014 Donn, where he got a 114 Beyer. This clearly was a horse waiting for longer races on dirt. Now that he has gotten them, nobody has been able to beat him.

:: DONN HANDICAP: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

The Withers really looks like a one-horse race, with a two-time stakes winner who has earned Beyers of 94 and 95 in the Kentucky Jockey Club and Jerome stakes against six maiden winners who have a total of one Beyer better than 80, Classy Class’s 88 when he won his maiden. If he can run back to that or better, he would be the one with a chance to upset El Kabeir. But I wouldn’t bet on that. El Kabeir is going to be an overwhelming favorite, and I don’t see any good reason to try to beat him.

The threesome of Rock Shandy, 90 when second to Calculator in the Sham, and one-two Los Alamitos Futurity finishers Dortmund (91) and Firing Line (91) lay over the short field in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Dortmund is going to be favored because he is unbeaten and trained by Bob Baffert. He also has that race-best 97 Beyer in his second career start. I loved the fight he showed at Los Alamitos, but I do think the other two are for real, as their Beyer progression has been slow and steady. This is a very interesting race on a February day that will reveal much about this year’s 3-year-olds, last year’s 3-year-olds, and the state of the older-horse division.