Jerardi: Sheer Drama holds figure edge in Delaware Handicap

The career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the seven horses in the Delaware Handicap range from 84 (Fortune Pearl) to 99 (Sheer Drama). The last-out Beyers range from 79 (Fortune Pearl) to 96 (Frivolous).

Given current form and recent history, I would think it is going to take somewhere around a 95 to win, if these fillies and mares can hold their form at 1 1/4 miles. Fortune Pearl (fourth) and Joint Return (second) ran in the Obeah, the local prep. Neither has hit 90 on the Beyer scale, but Joint Return absolutely should love the distance. If the race falls apart, she is not out of the question.

Frivolous (first), Sheer Drama (second), and America (fifth) all ran in the June 13 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. Speed dominated that night, which is likely why Frivolous was able to get that career-best Beyer when she was 32-1. She had an advantage then and might still have an advantage as likely the lone speed. And she has run fast before, finishing 2014 with figures of 91 and 93 (a win in the Falls City Handicap).

Sheer Drama is the most likely horse to run the winning figure. Her last four numbers are 91, 99, 93, and 94. She made a nice run from fifth on that speed-favoring track at Churchill.

America has not hit 90 on the Beyer scale, but like Joint Return, she will be running late.

Flashy American might get slightly overlooked in the wagering, but that could be a mistake. It took her 11 tries to win her maiden, but she has been earning solid figures for two years and finished a strong third in the 2014 Delaware Handicap with a 94 Beyer.

Rosalind, with a career-best 88 Beyer, is another who has not hit 90 on the scale. But you ignore Chad Brown-trained horses these days at your own risk.

The most likely Del Cap winner is Sheer Drama. The best value is likely to be Flashy American. That said, the 1 1/4 miles complicates a race, making it harder to predict a winning Beyer since optimal performance at the distance is beyond the scope of the vast majority of American horses in 2015.

The Eddie Read at Del Mar looks like it should belong to Midnight Storm, with his 106 and 102 Beyers in two 2015 starts after winning the Del Mar Derby last year with a 95. The horse is a half-length from being unbeaten in four grass races.

Depending on what happens with Big Cazanova, Midnight Storm could actually win by a large margin. Big Cazanova is serious early speed on dirt, the kind of horse who can run any speed horse into oblivion. He has not shown the same kind of early pop in his grass races, with Beyer performances nowhere near what he gets on dirt.

If Big Cazanova does not show top-end speed, Midnight Storm looks loose on the lead. If that happens, the horse is very likely to run a triple-digit Beyer and win comfortably. If, however, Midnight Storm, who just ran an incredible race in the Shoemaker Mile despite a race-long duel, does not clear, he still can win. It would just be a touch less likely.

If there is a meltdown duel, Finnegans Wake is the most likely beneficiary, with four triple-digit Beyers in his last five grass races. This tough, old horse is obviously in great form, as he ran much better than expected on dirt when fourth in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He certainly can win, but he is going to have to make up a ton of ground to catch Midnight Storm.

Power Ped was good enough to finish third twice to Finnegans Wake this winter, when he posted consecutive Beyers of 97, 95, and 97, numbers that could get him into the winner’s circle if the top two go a bit off form. The five-month layoff does not really seem relevant since he won off a similar layoff last September, albeit in a far easier spot.

This is one of those races I would like to be allowed to bet after the first 100 yards. I would like Midnight Storm under almost any circumstance, but the bet size would increase if he was loose on the lead.