Jerardi: Rockinatten viable alternative to favored Calculator
Before we take a look at a few of this week’s stakes in a Beyer Speed Figures context, let’s look back at two stakes from last Saturday.
Going into the Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan. 3, the 94 Beyer that El Kabeir had recorded in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club strongly suggested he would be the winner. El Kabeir won the Jerome by almost five lengths with a 95 Beyer. Nasa got an 86 when winning the Pennsylvania Nursery. He was a clear second in the Jerome, nearly eight lengths in front of the third-place horse. He got an 87 for his effort in the Jerome.
The Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream on Jan. 3 looked like Ready for Rye’s race to win based on his 96 Beyer in a very strong Oct. 11 maiden win at Belmont Park. He ran well in the Spectacular Bid, but ran a little like a horse that had not raced in almost three months, finishing a clear second with an 87. As was mentioned previously, newly turned 3-year-olds often blow up with a breakthrough performance. Barbados broke through with a giant performance, chasing the pace from third and then running by the front-runner and favorite in the stretch to get a 95 Beyer, a 14-point improvement from his maiden win, making him 2 for 2 on dirt.
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The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday looks a bit like the Jerome, with Calculator playing the part of El Kabeir with one notable difference. El Kabeir’s last race was five weeks before the Jerome. Calculator has not raced since Sept. 27, when he was second to American Pharoah in the FrontRunner. His last two Beyers, 95 and 90, tower over the Sham field. The third-place horse in the FrontRunner, Texas Red, came back to overwhelm the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field. His Juvenile Beyer was 104, a career top by 11 points, suggesting the FrontRunner field was even stronger than it looked at the time, and it looked strong then.
The only other horse in the Sham field who has broken 80 on the Beyer scale is Rockinatten, a horse making his first start for trainer Doug O’Neill. He won his maiden in his third start after two solid efforts and Beyers of 65 and 64. With blinkers on, Rockinatten won by almost nine lengths and got an 86 Beyer on Oct. 26 at Gulfstream Park West. If it was the blinkers that changed everything and Calculator is less than his best, Rockinatten has a chance at a mild upset. That maiden race, by the way, has not revealed a lot of clues. The second horse, The Son Wind, is still a maiden after subsequently running fourth and third, but his Beyers of 67 and 71 were similar to the 67 he got when second to Rockinatten, suggesting that the 86 Beyer was every bit as real as it looked at the time.
The San Pasqual at Santa Anita on Saturday really looks like the race where Hoppertunity can run that really big Beyer that makes him a player in major 2015 races. He was good enough to run a 100 when winning the Rebel Stakes last March. He was going to be the second or third choice in the Kentucky Derby before being scratched two days before the race. He won the Clark Handicap on Nov. 28 with a 104 Beyer. I think this is the race where Hoppertunity hits 110 on the Beyer scale and makes good on his potential that has been obvious since he won his maiden last Jan. 30 with a 92.
The Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream on Saturday is a classic case of the hot horse versus the phenom. Lea surely looked like the next big thing when he won the Donn Handicap last February with a 114 after getting a 101 in the 2013 edition of the Hal’s Hope. The first two triple-digit Beyers of his career came in the first two races for trainer Bill Mott. Lea has not run since his Donn win. You know Mott will have him ready, but this is no walkover, not with Valid in the race. Valid compiled seven triple-digit Beyers in 10 2014 races, culminating with a career-best 111 when a heroic second to the very talented Liam’s Map in the Harlan’s Holiday.
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So where do you go, the horse with a great reputation who has not raced in 11 months or the tough grinder who has been racing all along? I would lean slightly to Valid, but not with any great conviction.