Jerardi: Risen Star far tougher read than Fountain of Youth

I had the right idea in last Saturday’s Barbara Fritchie Handicap but the wrong horse. There was no pace, so if any horse got a clear lead, that horse was going to be very difficult to catch. Lady Sabelia, with the best set of recent Beyers, cleared the field easily, won convincingly, and got a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, equaling a career best. If you ever see a paceless race like that when there is no obvious speed horse and you are in the middle of a multi-race wager, consider using several of the speed horses and hope one of them gets clear.

Whenever you see a horse like Warren’s Veneda, a horse who makes a big Beyer jump late in a career and then duplicates the number in the next race with a figure that will win, that is a horse to get on. The 5-year-old mare Warren’s Veneda made a big jump from an 86 to a 93 when second in the Bayakoa at Los Alamitos in December and then ran back to win when dominating the Paseana at Santa Anita in January with a 94. She did it again in the Santa Maria on February 14, running by the field and getting another 94. Thegirlinthatsong was favored in the Santa Maria off a 12-point Beyer jump from 80 to 92. She then split the difference, getting an 87 when finishing third.

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Is there any reason to question Upstart in the Fountain of Youth? I can’t think of one.

This horse was good enough to go 95, 102, 92 in his final three starts as a 2-year-old. So, the 106 he got when he buried the field in the Holy Bull was not a complete shock. The natural progression from age 2 to 3 put that number well within range.

What made the performance even more impressive was how much he won by and which horses were behind him. Frosted, a close second in the Remsen with an 89 Beyer, was 5 1/2 lengths behind Upstart. His figure jumped seven points to a 96, again a natural progression. Bluegrass Singer, who finished third, got a 93 after getting a 93 and a 90 in his previous two starts. When you have a consistent horse like Bluegrass Singer run to his form that just confirms how good the winner really was.

So, unless something dramatic has changed, Upstart is supposed to win. It will be interesting to see if he can improve his Beyer again or settle into the 106 comfort zone.

An obvious unanswered question is how well Bluegrass Singer can do in the Fountain of Youth if he clears the field. And he may very well get loose on the lead in this spot.

The Risen Star is anything but clear-cut. This race could play out in too many ways to feel confident of much.

International Star further confirmed the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club with his win and 90 Beyer in the Lecomte. The post switch from 1 to 10 is a bit concerning. And 90 may not be enough to win this race.

Imperia was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club, 5 3/4 lengths clear of International Star. Race winner El Kabeir has proved the 94 he got that day is legit, so Imperia looks legit. Yes, he has not raced in three months, but his first dirt race was a revelation and it is hard to dislike any son of Medaglia d’Oro. Imperia is the horse most likely to earn a very big Beyer in this race.

But Imperia is not the only live horse. J S Bach dominated in his first two-turn race and is so lightly raced that we really don’t know his capabilities yet. He got an 87 that day after earning a 92 in his debut. He is the wild card.

I suggested War Story would run well in the Lecomte and he did. In fact, he gave a huge effort despite a difficult trip. Now, with a little more time off and more work from trainer Tom Amoss, I think this horse could get into the 90s this time.

I would estimate it is going to take between a 95 and 100 to win the race. And I see at least four horses that could get there.