Jerardi: Pay attention to Brown, Americans on Million Day

I wrote last week, “I think it very unlikely Honor Code comes close to that 112’’ from the Metropolitan Mile in the Whitney. Actually, Honor Code not only came close; the horse went a point better with a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, a tribute to his inherent talent and Shug McGaughey’s work. Put a line through Honor Code’s Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, and his 2015 figures are 106, 104, 112, and 113. I was wrong about the Met Mile being an outlier. Honor Code has fulfilled every bit of the promise we all saw two years ago. The horse is top shelf, a serious threat to win any race in America, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic with American Pharoah in the starting gate.

There are obviously some Beyer unknowns at Arlington Park with all those Europeans in the big races Saturday, but there are three knowns in the Arlington Million. Big Blue Kitten is going to fire, local hero The Pizza Man will have to run the race of his life to win, and Chad Brown is live with every kind of running style.

Big Blue Kitten has been between 100 and 105 on the Beyer scale in his last eight races, so if you are looking for a horse to key in exotic bets, this is your horse.

The Pizza Man has won 9 of 12 on this course and got up to win the Stars and Stripes despite having to sit behind a ridiculously slow pace. As his best, though, the horse gets between a 97 and a 100 on the scale. That is good enough against the local horses but won’t be good enough against this international field.

Slumber has become a new Beyer horse with blinkers, getting a 106 and 102.

Triple Threat got a 99 when winning at Monmouth Park in his first start for Bill Mott. The horse is a bit under the radar but not out of the question.

It took Legendary three races to recapture his form from a year ago. He may not be quite this good but appears to have been trained all year with this race as the goal.

I think the American contingent is stronger in the Million than the Beverly D., but it is possible that neither group is good enough to deal with a large and apparently well-meant bunch of Europeans.

Watsdachances, running in the Beverly D., is the female version of Big Blue Kitten. Her last six races fall within the 91-95 Beyer range. Stablemate Stephanie’s Kitten has not been able to catch her rabbit in the last two races, which is never a good sign. She does not have that same pop she had two years ago.

The two best grass performances I have seen this year were in the Belmont Oaks, by Lady Eli, and the Belmont Derby, by Force the Pass. Like everybody, I am rooting for Lady Eli to recover from laminitis and maybe even make it back to the races someday. Force the Pass is back in the Secretariat and absolutely the horse to beat. The colt somehow got through the crowd to win the Penn Mile before exploding to win at Belmont Park with a 92 Beyer.

Force the Pass certainly ran that day like the best is yet to come. His lifetime Beyers from his first start in February are 79, 81, 83, 87, 88, and 92, a rather nice forward-moving pattern.

King Kreesa has always been a very nice horse, but he has blown up this summer, interestingly, just like he did two years ago at this time. The horse got a pair of 104s when he won the 2013 Poker and finished second in the Fourstardave. King Kreesa comes into this year’s Fourstardave off a 99 Beyer in his Poker win, followed by a career-best 105 in the Forbidden Apple. Other than the off-form Skyring, there is very little early pace, so King Kreesa really figures to fire again. The bad news is that there will be no 17-1 or probably even 6-1 this time.

With Mshawish, Grand Arch, and Ironicus among the others capable of getting a figure in the high 90s or low 100s, this is a race alive with unpredictable scenarios that could impact the outcome. Visually, Ironicus was off-the-charts impressive when he won the Dixie Stakes at Pimlico just before the monsoon hit on Preakness Day.