Jerardi: Morning Fire's speed dangerous in Sam F. Davis

The only sure thing about last Saturday’s Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park was that it was going to take around a 105 Beyer Speed Figure to win, and several horses could do it. When the bettors settled on Keen Ice, a classic RIP (reputation-induced phenomenon) as the favorite, a bet was demanded. That exacta with Mshawish (106 Beyer) and Valid was nice. Hope you had some of it.

Hoppertunity (104) ran to his figures in the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita last Saturday and finally won. Mor Spirit (92) was solid in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita last Saturday and has still never run a bad race. Don’t fret over Songbird’s 87 Beyer in the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last Saturday. The champ was out for an afternoon stroll. I actually thought there was other speed in the race. When Songbird is running, there is only Songbird.

On to the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, a semi Derby prep but not one likely to have any lasting influence. Morning Fire was quite consistent in a long Pennsylvania campaign last year but took a huge step forward when he cleared the field in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa and got a 90 Beyer. If he clears again, he is dangerous, even in his first route race.

The key to the race will be how Javier Castellano rides Gettysburg, who won his maiden wire to wire and got an 83. If he lets Morning Fire go, as seems likely, the race shape could determine the winner because Gettysburg, with Beyers of 68 and 72 in his first two starts, was much less effective without the lead.

If there is any kind of a pace duel, Destin is the most likely winner, coming off a solid fourth at Fair Grounds in the Lecomte, where he got an 80 Beyer.

Hot City Girl absolutely looks like lone speed in the Barbara Fritchie Stakes at Laurel on Saturday. She was brilliant last fall, with three blowout wins and a Beyer series of 88, 92, and then 95 when she crushed the field in the Safely Kept at Laurel. She was caught very late in the La Brea at Santa Anita, certainly no disgrace, getting an 88 that day.

The issue with Hot City Girl is whether her best will be good enough in a race with some horses who have put up bigger Beyers.

Lady Sabelia represents the home team in the Fritchie and represents well, with seven wins at Laurel and back Beyers of 99, 97, 99, and 101. She runs with the lead or from off the pace. She is the most likely winner if she comes back to her best Beyers.

Dancing House, working on a Beyer series of 86, 86, 86, 89, 89, and 90, is incredibly consistent but might not be quite fast enough.

Tara’s Tango is a perfect Beyer study in the Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday. She got a 93, 90, 91 series last summer but then slowed down and needed a little break after a 10th in the Cotillion at Parx. She was nowhere in her comeback race but then was a strong third in the Santa Monica at Santa Anita with a 95. This should be the breakthrough where she runs right back to that 95, the number that is going to win this race.

Obviously has not won since the summer of 2014, but that is mostly a function of the horses he has raced against. His Beyers, eight triple-digit numbers in his last 12 races, have never really faltered. He is going to the front in the Arcadia at Santa Anita on Saturday, and I don’t think he is getting caught. Flamboyant, a 46-1 shot, caught Obviously in the San Gabriel, and he proved that that was not a fluke when he won last Saturday’s San Marcos.

Arcadia entrant Om has been very consistent, with Beyers of 95, 97, 97, 97, and 100 since the summer, but he has been winning his races either on the lead or by chasing moderate fractions. Obviously does not do moderate, so this will be a very different challenge for Om.

I have an affinity for mares like Best Behavior in the Royal Delta at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. She is going to sit a great trip with her tactical speed and outside post. Her Beyers, mid- to high 80s with a career-top-tying 91 in the Sugar Swirl, are good enough. And she has been in the money 24 times in 28 starts, with nine wins. She might not win here, but she is absolutely the horse to beat.