Jerardi: Las Virgenes Stakes a puzzle from Beyer standpoint

I was fairly certain that Upstart was going to run really well in last Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes. Any 2-year-old who can get a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in his third start and run well in all four starts on both coasts is dangerous.

The horse ran even better than I had imagined, blowing away a pretty solid field to win by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a 105 Beyer. I don’t think we will be seeing him in New York-bred races anytime soon. Upstart is a serious Kentucky Derby contender. Frosted was second in the Holy Bull and improved on his Remsen Stakes number by six points, going from an 89 to a 95.

Barbados and X Y Jet looked one-two on the numbers in the Hutcheson and ran like a team most of the way, with Barbados winning and X Y Jet finishing 7 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse. The winner’s Beyer went down slightly from a 95 in the Spectacular Bid to a 92, while X Y Jet’s figure went up slightly from an 88 to a 91.

On to this Saturday’s Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. One thing that can be said with certainty about this year’s 3-year-old fillies is that they are slow. At least, they were slow as 2-year-olds. Let’s see what develops this year.

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Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer entered half of the 10 fillies in the field (only four will start; impressive maiden winner Glory will scratch), so that seems like a good place to start. Two of them, Majestic Presence (fourth) and Achiever’s Legacy (fifth), ran behind divisional champion Take Charge Brandi in the Dec. 13 Starlet at Los Alamitos. Their Beyers were 83 and 80. The only filly to run back from the Starlet was Danette, who finished sixth that day. Her Beyer improved five points from a 71 to a 76 in her next start.

So, nothing to get excited about from the Starlet until you realize that none of these fillies ever has hit 90 on the Beyer scale. This race definitely is about projecting which of these fillies, if any, is about to make a significant forward move.

Bob Baffert trains two of the fillies, Maybellene, third in the Starlet with an 86, and Callback, second in the Santa Ynez with an 89, the best mark in the Las Virgenes field.

Callback’s performance would inspire a bit more confidence if the winner of the Santa Ynez, Seduire, had not shipped across the country to Gulfstream Park last Saturday and ran so poorly for Hollendorfer. Seduire was the 2-1 favorite in the Forward Gal Stakes, dueled for the lead, then backed out, finishing seventh, beaten 10 lengths, and getting a 65 Beyer, a decline of 29 points from the 94 she got in the Santa Ynez.

Light the City (Hollendorfer) actually was favored in the Santa Ynez off two decent low-80 numbers last fall at Del Mar and Santa Anita. She showed speed but faded, suggesting that she may have maxed out.

Six of the 10 fillies have been in the 80s on the Beyer scale. Lutine Belle (Hollendorfer), Mio Me, Suva Harbor, and Miss Mandate would have to improve significantly to have a chance.

The six-furlong Palos Verdes will be run two races before the Las Virgenes. Three of the six horses come out of the Dec. 26 Malibu or the Dec. 27 Midnight Lute. Both of those races were surprisingly slow, given the caliber of sprinters in them. Conquest Two Step (72-1) was second by a neck to Shared Belief in the Malibu and got a 98. Distinctiv Passion won the Midnight Lute with just a 95.

The big surprise in the Midnight Lute was how poorly Secret Circle ran as the 1-5 choice. He had been first or second in 12 of 13 races and third in the other. He finished fourth and got just an 88. So, are we getting the Secret Circle with six triple-digit Beyers or the horse who ran so far off his typical form? To make it a bit more confusing, Secret Circle is getting blinkers.

Big Macher typically runs anywhere from a high-90 to a low-100 Beyer.

Check out Wild Dude and look back to his last long layoff from October 2012 to August 2013. The horse improved his Beyer from an 80 to a 99 in winning his maiden. Wild Dude got a 101 when second to Big Macher in a Santa Anita stakes last April 12. This is his first race since then. If he improves his Beyer, as he did the last time after a layoff, he is going to be very dangerous.