Jerardi: Lack of pace could lead to low Belmont Beyer

Trying to gauge what kind of Beyer Speed Figures the Belmont Stakes horses are likely to get is like trying to make a Beyer figure for the 2015 Preakness – a frustrating exercise with minimal context.

None of these 3-year-olds is going to relish the 1 1/2 miles. The final time and the figure almost certainly will reflect that, so we are off into a great unknown here.

What we do know is that American Pharoah has six consecutive triple-digit Beyers since his disastrous debut. He looks like the lone speed, so the fractions do not figure to be taxing. What we don’t know is how fast he will be running in the final half-mile, so it is very hard to estimate a likely Beyer.

Frosted’s last two races, the Wood Memorial win and the fourth in the Kentucky Derby, were his best, with Beyers of 103 and 100. Tonalist, another son of Tapit, won the 2014 Belmont Stakes with a 100 Beyer.

Put a line through Materiality’s Derby, where he was taken completely out of his comfort zone with the bad break. His 102 and 110 Beyers before that demonstrate his quality. He figures to get a stalking trip right behind American Pharoah. There is every reason to think this son of 2005 Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex is going to run right back to his best form.

It’s going to be a fascinating second half of the season to see just how good Competitive Edge might be. Unbeaten and really untested in four starts, with 2-year-old Beyers of 90 and 90 and 3-year-old Beyers of 95 and 102 when he won the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day, this son of 2010 Derby winner Super Saver will be heavily favored in the Woody Stephens. It’s interesting that Todd Pletcher is turning him back to seven furlongs, but $500,000 is still $500,000, and the colt is going to be odds-on.

Unless Ready for Rye is going to run back to that 105 he got when he exploded to win the Swale, this looks like Competitive Edge’s fifth straight win. Let’s see if he can keep climbing the Beyer scale.

Looks like a soft pace in the Ogden Phipps, so there is a chance we are going to see a strangely run race.

Untapable appears to be slowly getting back to her best numbers, the kind she got last year when she went 100, 106, and then 107 when blowing away the Kentucky Oaks field. This year, it was 96 in her first start and 99 in her second. I would expect her to hit triple digits in this spot, but the confusing pace scenario certainly could affect the final time.

Wedding Toast is okay elsewhere and a killer at Belmont Park, where she is 3 for 4 with a second. Her two best Beyers have come there, a 105 when winning an optional claimer in September 2013 and a 97 when blowing away the field in the Ruffian a month ago.

The best 2-year-old fillies were mostly slow on the Beyer scale last year, and we are still waiting for a triple-digit breakthrough performance from a 3-year-old filly this year.

Shook Up, who is likely to go favored, comes in with a pair of 90s. She has won just once in six starts, with four seconds.

Condo Commando was under serious pace pressure in the Kentucky Oaks before fading. If she clears this field, she could get back to her 2-year-old numbers, when she got a 92 in winning the Spinaway and a 96 in winning the Demoiselle.

It says something about the group that Promise Me Silver is 8 for 8 without ever hitting 90 on the Beyer scale. The Texas-bred has been really well managed by Bret Calhoun. Interestingly, she needed a career-best effort to win the Eight Belles the day before the Derby and got it with an 87. She probably will have to get another career-best figure to win this heat.

I was trying to come up with a reason why there is not going to be a speed duel in the Metropolitan Handicap. I couldn’t find one. Private Zone has to go from the rail. Bayern is one-dimensional. Either horse on a clear lead would run a big Beyer, but the much more likely scenario is them setting the race up for Belmont Park killer Tonalist, unbeaten in four starts at the track after a career-best 111 in the Westchester.

Tonalist’s other two non-Belmont Stakes Beyers at the track are a 104 in the Peter Pan and a 106 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This could get complicated if one of the speed horses does not break. If they both leave and set a hot pace, Tonalist could run a really big Beyer.