Jerardi: Jim Dandy a toss-up between Frosted, Texas Red

The Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga is the battle to see which 3-year-old is the country’s second-best around two turns. Seven were entered, but fewer will run. Regardless of how many run, it should come down to Frosted or Texas Red.

Frosted confirmed his Wood Memorial form (103 Beyer Speed Figure) with terrific efforts in the Kentucky Derby (100) and Belmont Stakes (98). A son of Tapit, Frosted was the only horse to make any kind of move in the Derby when fourth, just behind third-place Dortmund. He was 4-1 in the Belmont Stakes because of that Derby move.

Frosted made what looked like a very dangerous turn run in the Belmont – unless you also happened to be watching jockey Victor Espinoza on American Pharoah. He had not asked his colt to run at all as Frosted was coming. When he did ask, it was over.

It’s no disgrace to lose to American Pharoah. All the Triple Crown winner has done since his debut is win seven straight, all but one by substantial margins. Frosted only has two wins in nine starts, but that is mostly a product of the spots he has been in. This looks like the right spot to run just like he did when he won the Wood Memorial on April 4.

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I was not quite sure about Texas Red until his second in the Dwyer Stakes, where he got a 99 Beyer and never stopped trying. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, with that 104, was eye-catching but partially a product of a pace meltdown. Texas Red, a son of Afleet Alex, is for real. I also suspect he is sitting on his best race.

Unless the pace is so slow that it is impossible for the race to get a big Beyer, it should take a triple-digit number to win. Frosted and Texas Red are both quite capable of earning the likely winning figure.

You don’t often see sprinters like Salutos Amigos and Rock Fall putting up one triple-digit Beyer after another. Salutos Amigos has compiled five consecutive giant numbers in his U.S. races – 105, 109, 108, 110, and 106, all in dominating wins. Rock Fall blew up this spring with consecutive Beyers of 109 and 110. It is hard to separate those two in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga.

Favorite Tale is dangerous because he looks like the lone speed. His two best Beyers (104 in the Gallant Bob last September at Parx and in the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park a month ago) were compiled on tracks where early speed dominated.

The Big Beast does not run bad races but has just one triple-digit number (102) and would have to improve on that to have a chance against this powerhouse group.

The only question about Beholder in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar is whether she will be a shorter price than American Pharoah in Sunday’s Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. She never runs a bad race, and her best races are in the biggest moments.

Beholder has run only five times in the last two years but won four and had a significant excuse in the loss. She was at her very best in the fall of 2013, when she put up consecutive Beyers of 106 and 105. She has been in the high 90s lately, but she always wins like there is more there if needed.

On the numbers, the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer should come down to Peter Pan Stakes winner Madefromlucky, Iowa Derby winner Bent On Bourbon, and the improving Iron Fist, making his first stakes start since getting blown away by American Pharoah in the 2014 Del Mar Futurity.

The winning Beyer should be between 93 and 95. All three are capable.

Madefromlucky is unbeaten in all of his races this year in which he did not run against American Pharoah. He tried the Triple Crown winner three times and had the same luck as the rest. His 94 Beyer when winning the Peter Pan Stakes puts him right in this hunt.

Bent On Bourbon got a career-best 93 Beyer at Prairie Meadows when winning his third straight. He fits quite nicely.

Iron Fist took five tries to win his maiden, but the light has gone on for the $1.55 million yearling purchase, with paired 93 Beyers. In a race without a ton of early speed, this son of Tapit should sit a nice trip and might be ready to run his best race yet.

If you are looking for a Tale of Verve explanation, look elsewhere. The horse cost me the Preakness exacta when he improved 21 Beyer points and then promptly regressed 11 points when nowhere in the Belmont Stakes.