Jerardi: Expecting forward moves from top Derby contenders
Last Saturday’s Florida Derby had big Beyer Speed Figure potential and delivered when Materiality and Upstart ran away from the field and got figures of 110 and 108, confirming and improving upon earlier triple-digit Beyer performances.
The final tip-off on Materiality came 20 minutes before he raced, when Stanford, the horse he beat by six lengths in a minor stakes, almost won the Louisiana Derby. Race winner International Star keeps improving his Beyers, going from 90 to 93 to 98 in sweeping the Fair Grounds stakes series. Given how fast the top 3-year-olds have been running, he will have to improve several more lengths to have any chance in the Kentucky Derby.
Does Dortmund have another forward move in the Santa Anita Derby? Does he need one? Maybe and maybe.
Dortmund’s form is fully exposed. This will be his sixth race, three as a 2-year-old and three as a 3-year-old, the perfect preparation for a modern Derby horse. His 2-year-old Beyers were promising. His 3-year-old Beyers (a pair of 104s) are Derby-worthy. He beat Firing Line by a head in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and Firing Line came back to win the Sunland Derby by 14 1/4 lengths. There really is nothing not to like about Dortmund, but another big win and another big Beyer would be comforting heading to Kentucky.
I was very impressed with Prospect Park and Bolo, second and third in the San Felipe Stakes behind Dortmund.
It took Prospect Park four tries to win his maiden, but the first win changed everything. He jumped from a 78 to a 93 in an optional claimer to a 102 in the San Felipe. Not sure if this colt is going to improve enough to run down Dortmund at Santa Anita, but pay close attention to how he finishes. He could be a major factor in Kentucky.
Bolo’s first dirt try and first race of any kind in 70 days was a revelation. The colt had gotten an 83 and an 88 in his two grass wins. He zoomed all the way to a 101 in the San Felipe with a less-than-smooth trip.
Carpe Diem’s 98 Beyer when he romped in the Tampa Bay Derby stands out in the Blue Grass Stakes field, especially when you consider that the colt was good enough to earn a 91 last October when he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. I would anticipate a forward move into triple digits for the $1.6 million son of Giant’s Causeway. If that is the case, the others are almost certainly running for second.
I think you can put a line through Ocho Ocho Ocho’s San Felipe. Whatever could go wrong did go wrong. He was good enough to get a 90 when winning the Delta Jackpot last November. And when you look at this Blue Grass field, there is very little early speed. Given that Ocho Ocho Ocho was fast enough to be with the pace in two sprints last fall, I can see a scenario where he makes the front from the rail and runs much closer to his 2-year-old form.
Classy Class also could show speed. His poor start in the Gotham really cost him. His 91 in the Withers was promising.
El Kabeir is impossible not to like. The colt gives the same effort race after race. That is his most admirable trait, but it is also why he can’t win the Kentucky Derby. At some point, the horses with the most Derby potential have to start running faster.
Could El Kabeir make that forward punch in the Wood Memorial? Yes. However, I think it unlikely. The colt got a 94 when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a 2-year-old. He is no faster now, with figures of 95 (Jerome win), 93 (Withers second), and 88 (Gotham win). He seems stuck in a place that can win winter races in New York but won’t win him that race in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May.
And he might not be fast enough to win the Wood either, with Daredevil coming up from Florida. Yes, he was beaten at 3-5 in the Swale, but he was beaten by a very fast horse in Ready for Rye, and the field was another 10 lengths back. Daredevil got a 99 Beyer in defeat after earning a 96 and a 107 as a 2-year-old. Put a line through his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and you have the fastest horse in the race perhaps sitting on a giant effort.