Jerardi: Expect big Beyers from Shared Belief, Dortmund

A few weeks ago, I explained that Shared Belief’s unusually low 107 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Antonio Stakes was probably because he was running behind such a slow pace. That should be less of an issue in the Santa Anita Handicap, with confirmed front-runner Moreno and sprinter Crimson Giant in the field.

If Shared Belief does get a reasonable pace up top, I would expect a dream trip, a Beyer north of 110, a runaway win, and even more questions about what would have happened if the horse had not had all those issues at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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This is Separation Saturday for the 3-year-olds, with the San Felipe, Gotham, and Tampa Bay Derby.

Dortmund announced himself last November with an 81 Beyer when he won his maiden, followed by a huge jump 27 days later when he shipped to Churchill Downs (a Kentucky Derby trial?), won by 7 3/4 lengths, and got a 97 Beyer. The unbeaten colt is obviously going to be favored in the San Felipe, and his Beyer pattern is hard to ignore.

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Dortmund won the Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 20 with a 91 and then the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes with a seemingly impossible rebreak in the stretch when the race looked lost. The 104 Beyer that Dortmund, a son of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown, got that day absolutely puts him at the very top of the Derby contenders two months out.

The San Felipe has some speed, but it is mostly sprint speed. Dortmund should be able to sit a nice trip off that speed. Given his Beyer history, I will be very surprised if the colt does not get a triple-digit Beyer again. And unless some horse makes a gigantic Beyer improvement, Dortmund should dominate this race and perhaps emerge as the Derby favorite.

Ocho Ocho Ocho, unbeaten in three starts at 2, including the Delta Jackpot, is intriguing. Not sure exactly how high he can go on the Beyer scale, but I am eager to find out. Lord Nelson was good enough to beat Texas Red in his 2015 debut, but that 92 is the best Beyer of his career. Prospect Park made a big Beyer jump in his fifth start to 93. Any son of Tapit has to be taken seriously.

El Kabeir has what we call “omni figs” in the Gotham. His last three Beyers of 94, 95, and 93 are better than any Beyer that any of his opponents have ever recorded. The problem is that those figs, while certainly good enough to win this race, are not good enough to make him a serious Derby contender.

The reality is that as consistent as El Kabeir has been, his Beyers, unlike Dortmund, have not improved from 2 to 3. Historically, if a potential Derby horse has not improved his Beyers by 10 points or so as we hit March, it is probably too late. Could El Kabeir take the necessary big jump in the Gotham? It is possible but unlikely.

I would not bet against El Kabeir in this spot, but I would not recommend a Derby future bet on him.

If you are looking for an exacta horse or want to bet against El Kabeir, I would recommend Lieutenant Colonel. This colt was very impressive when he won his maiden at Gulfstream Park, getting an 87. If Chad Brown thinks enough of him to ship him north to Aqueduct, that strongly suggests that there may be more there than the 87 Beyer.

The Tampa Bay Derby is certainly the best betting race of the stakes for 3-year-olds. Carpe Diem is going to be favored off his excellent 2-year-old season, with a 91 Beyer in the Breeders’ Futurity and a 93 when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Love the bloodlines, but the horse has not been out in four months, and his Juvenile is not as good as it looks because he closed into the pace meltdown that made Texas Red look so good. Can Carpe Diem take that 10-point jump to make him a Derby contender? That is this race’s biggest question.

Ocean Knight paired up 93 Beyers in his only two starts, most recently in the Jan. 31 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa. Divining Rod lost that race by a neck and took a Beyer leap after getting Lasix for the first time.